电力企业信息网络安全风险分析与管控措施研究

目前,在我国社会用电负荷快速增长、信息网络技术快速发展的形势下,电力企业更加重视信息网络技术在电力企业的应用情况和信息网络安全情况。因此,文章基于电力企业信息网络安全的目标,分析目前电力企业信息网络安全风险,并针对这些安全风险提出相应的风险管控措施,以供参考。     

用支持向量机网络实现VBR视频通信量的预测

VBR(Variable Bit Rate)视频信号具有时变性、非线性和突发性等特点,实现该信号通信量的高精度预测是提高信息传输速度和提高网络带宽资源利用效率的重要手段.针对以上问题,本文提出了一种用于VBR视频通信量预测的差分输入支持向量机(SVM:Support Vector Machine)网络模型.该网络模型采用结构风险最小化准则,在最小化经验风险的同时,尽量缩小模型预测误差的上界,从而使网络模型具有更好的推广能力.实验结果表明:支持向量机网络模型的预测误差为0.0018,而梯度径向基函数(Gradient Radial Basis Function:GRBF)神经网络模型的预测误差为0.0029.可以看出,支持向量机网络模型的预测精度要比GRBF网络模型的预测精度高出大约40%.     

软件风险管理过程的研究与应用

软件风险是导致软件项目延迟、超预算或者失败的重要因素,风险管理是项目管理中一个重要的部分,自从巴里.鲍伊姆(Barry Boehm)把风险管理引入软件界以来,软件风险管理已经成为软件工程界的一个热点问题。针对风险管理的过程提出了多个模型,以其中得到广泛应用的持续风险管理模型为基础,介绍了风险管理过程,在此基础上重点讨论了对传统的风险计算公式的改进,并引入趋势分析进行风险预测。     

信息安全风险评估的模糊多准则决策方法

基于ISO/IEC17799标准建立了一个综合的信息系统风险分析框架,并运用模糊多准则决策(FMCDM)方法计算信息安全风险,根据风险等级矩阵(RLM)对信息资产风险进行级别划分,最终建立评估信息资产相关风险的完整模型。     

电子技术类产业化项目发展的计算模型分析

本文提出将模糊综合评价法应用于电子技术类产业化项目的风险模型的建立和评价过程中,通过定性分析与定量评价相结合很好地解决了该类项目因数据缺失而不能很好地实现综合评价的问题。结合具体的实例分析,证实了该计算模型进行电子技术类产业项目风险分析的可行性,并取得了很好的效果,为项目风险管理提供了一定的理论基础。     

Quantitative risk assessment of Campylobacter in broiler chickens – Assessing interventions to reduce the level of contamination at the end of the rearing period

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has estimated that a proportion ranging from 20% to 30% of campylobacteriosis in humans may be attributed to the consumption of broiler meat and a reduction in the numbers of Campylobacter in the intestines of infected birds at slaughter by 3 log units would reduce the public health risk by at least 90%. In this study, a stochastic model was implemented to reproduce the dynamics of Campylobacter transmission in broiler flocks and explore the effects of several management conditions and/or on-farm mitigation strategies on the estimated level of contamination of infected flocks at slaughter. Results were expressed as ‘proportion of highly contaminated flocks’ (%HCFs) and estimated as a function of the proportion of infected birds in the flock the day of final depopulation and the individual level of contamination in infected birds. The effects of the mitigation strategies aimed at reducing the level of contamination in infected birds were modelled assuming that those effects are exerted on the distribution describing the bacterial load in infected birds. The impact of management conditions such as the adoption of enhanced biosecurity measures (B+) and/or partial depopulation during the production cycle (T+) were quantified using results of an extensive epidemiological study conducted in UK. A standard broiler flock was reproduced and used as baseline to make comparisons and simulate the effects of the mitigation strategies of interest. The baseline model predicted 18.8% probability of HCFs at slaughter. A positive effect ranging from −32.44% to −4.78% was attributed to B+ while T+ had negative effect ranging from +17.55% to +86.70%. When both the effects were tested simultaneously (B+T+), results were not conclusive with %HCFs ranging from −20.21% to +77.65%. When mitigation strategies operating on Campylobacter concentration in intestine were tested, a reduction of 100% and 99.6% in %HFCs were estimated following a generic treatment with bacteriocins and bacteriophages. Reduction in %HCFs as a function of immunization measures were explored and a reduction of 15% in the rate of transmission led to a %HCFs at slaughter reduced by almost 50%. The model was developed to be flexible, easily reproducible, updatable and adaptable to several baseline scenarios. The main parameters and assumptions underlying the baseline model were tested and a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify and discuss the impact that the uncertainty in the baseline information might have on the outcomes.     

基于分段线性正电阻的蔡氏电路设计

为了简化蔡氏二极管的设计,提出了一种分段线性正电阻的设计方法。将设计的分段线性正电阻转换成分段线性负电阻,该分段线性负电阻用于设计新的蔡氏电路,通过EWB仿真和硬件电路测试表明新的蔡氏电路能有效地产生混沌行为。无论是从产生的混沌行为还是从电路的结构来看,均具有现有蔡氏电路所不具备的一些优点,结果表明电路设计是有效的。     

按照规范完善直流电源系统的设计

结合标准规范，阐述了仪表直流电源系统的风险及风险降低方案。从标准的角度出发结合实际应用，介绍了电源系统的基本方案。并对各个方案的安全性做了对比，供工程设计和实际应用参考。     

高速公路加油站的经营风险及对策

高速公路加油站具有车流量大、加油量大、资金流动大等特点，经营风险大于其他一些加油站，其主要表现形式有跑单（加油不付款）、加油枪脱落、撞坏加油机、撞车和遭到抢劫等。针对这些经营风险应采取尽量让加油员收取货款，在同一时间只守一支加油枪，加强对加油车辆的引导和加大保安力度，安装摄像头和自动报警器等措施。