旱灾风险管理的研究进展

中国作为旱灾频发的发展中国家,加强旱灾管理是政府工作的重要任务。立足于旱灾风险管理机制,分析国内具有代表性省份的抗旱措施。从法律体系、组织体系、指挥体系、装备保障体系和工作体系五个方面探析旱灾风险管理的作用、基本路径和方法。比较旱灾危机管理和旱灾风险管理的优劣,努力推进旱灾风险管理的工作研究,探索抗旱减灾多部门协调、全社会联动的新格局。     

Deriving the optimal refill rule for multi-purpose reservoir considering flood control risk

For most multi-purpose reservoirs, there is a conflict between the flood control and refill operations. Refill before the end of the flood season is a valuable and effective solution to the conflict. In this paper, we present a method to derive the optimal refill rule for multi-purpose reservoir considering flood control risk. The paper begins with an investigation of the temporal trends of historical reservoir inflow series during refill period by the methods of linear regression, Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho test. Six refill rules are then proposed. A procedure to couple a flood control risk module with utilization benefits analysis module is then developed to derive the optimal refill rule. China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study. The application results show that the optimal refill rule is that refill begins on September 1 with storage level reaching 160 m on September 30 linearly. Compared with the original rule, the optimal refill rule can increase hydropower generation by 7.19%, decrease spilled water by 25.07%, and improve the fullness storage rate to 95.35%, without increasing flood control risk.     

水库防洪与补源优化调度及其风险分析

本文从洪水资源化与水资源可持续开发利用的角度建立水库防洪与补源优化调度的数学模型。利用流域产汇流模型计算入库洪水,并考虑短期降雨预报信息,将交互式生成技术与动态规划模型相结合来优化水库的调度方案,给出考虑洪水预报和降雨预报误差的水库防洪与补源优化调度风险率的定义与计算方法。将此模型和风险分析方法应用于大连市碧流河水库的防洪与补源联合优化调度中,对其风险值和补源效益进行了分析与计算。结果表明与常规调度相比,引洪补源优化调度能提高洪水资源利用率,补源效益十分显著。     

从三峡水电建设浅析技术和社会的相互作用

技术和社会是相互作用的,技术是在一定社会条件下发展的,同时它的发展又作用于社会。以电力建设中的三峡电站为例,分析其带来的社会效应,以及社会条件对其建立所起的作用,论证只有将技术与自然、经济、政治、文化等社会的各个方面相协调,才能实现人类的可持续发展。     

社区山洪风险评估系统开发及试点应用

近年来,由于山洪灾害的高发生频率、强致灾性以及高致死率,越来越多的国家和地区开始关注对山洪风险的评估,特别是作为社会基本单元的社区,通过社区山洪灾害风险评估加强减灾能力建设是提高减灾效率的关键。介绍了社区山洪风险评估系统主要内容以及在试点社区湖北省咸宁市冷水坪社区的应用情况。     

西门子发变组保护N-1风险分析及其应对策略研究

以现有继电保护相关规程及反事故措施为标准重新分析广蓄二期西门子发变组保护存在的N-1风险,提出了利用保护装置备用跳闸接点及重动继电器增设冗余跳闸回路、交叉配置机组和主变主保护直流电源回路以消除保护直流电源和跳闸回路N-1风险的应对策略,避免了因单一元件故障导致的发变组保护拒动,传动试验验证了该策略的有效性。     

基于GBNP 模型的新安江上游流域非点源污染模拟

流域非点源污染的监测十分困难,因此数值模拟是定量研究流域非点源污染的主要方法。本文采用基于地貌特征的分布式流域非点源污染模型GBNP(Geomorphology-Based Nonpoint source Pollution model),模拟了新安江上游流域2001—2010年的径流过程和非点源污染物的迁移过程。模型参数的率定与验证结果显示,月径流的Nash效率系数多在0.8以上,确定性系数R2都大于0.9;渔梁和屯溪两个测站的月泥沙负荷的Nash效率系数在0.7以上,确定性系数在0.9以上;两个测站总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)Nash效率系数都在0.55以上,确定性系数都大于0.8。结果表明,该模型在研究区适用性良好。基于模拟结果,分析了研究区内TN、TP以及土壤侵蚀量的时空分布特征。结果显示,研究区多年平均TN流失量为6 706.92 t/a,TP流失量为828.45 t/a,土壤侵蚀量为166.62万t/a。模拟期内年际变化和年内变化结果显示,在其他条件不变的情况下,非点源污染的产生与降雨量大小密切相关。对各区县氮磷分布特点分析可知,TN的空间分布主要受土地利用类型的影响,TP的空间分布主要受土壤侵蚀量的影响。     

基于事故树分析的水泵断轴事故的危险评价

基于事故致因理论建立水泵断轴事故模型,将水泵断轴事故危险源分为工作应力超负荷、工作强度超负荷、泵轴维护正确三类,提出基于事故树分析法的水泵断轴危险性专项评价方法。通过对最小割集和最小径集的分析可知,对水泵断轴影响最大的是作用时间过长、次数过多、承受应力过大、对中不符合要求、装配过紧或过松、形位公差过大。对水泵断轴事故的预防提出建议,对水泵运行时间进行合理分配,正确合理地装配水泵并且时刻关注水泵的运行状态。     

Effect of substrate on the risk of being washed away by floods for the Groundhoppers Tetrix subulata and Tetrix tenuicornis (Orthoptera: Tetrigidae)

Inundation zones of rivers are risky environments for terrestrial animals because of the regular or irregular occurrence of floods. Although animals in these zones have evolved several strategies to survive floods, behavioural anti‐flooding strategies have seldom been studied but could play an important role in their life history strategies. We previously reported that the groundhopper Tetrix tenuicornis moves to dense vegetation in response to low atmospheric pressure (which may signal rain and flooding) but prefers mossy microhabitats and bare ground under high atmospheric pressure. In the current study, we found that the ability of the semi‐aquatic groundhoppers T. tenuicornis and Tetrix subulata to withstand direct water flow was greater in patches of dense vegetation than in patches of moss or on bare ground. Even a relatively low water velocity led to water transport (presumably passive) of both species, perhaps because they lack arolia or other adhesive devices on their tarsi. This morphological limitation precludes vertical migration on vegetation, which is a common anti‐flooding strategy in insects. Our results suggest that, by moving to dense vegetation in response to drops in atmospheric pressure, groundhoppers may reduce their risk of being washed away by floods.     

阿海水电站主厂房和副厂房三维有限元结构分析

采用有限元计算软件ANSYS,对阿海水电站主厂房及下游副厂房在各工况下其应力和变形进行了三维有限元分析,根据结构各部位的应力分析结果,计算结构配筋,并与类似工程施工图配筋进行对比,为施工图设计配筋提供依据。