Pricing power outages in the Netherlands

In most Western countries, the power grid provides electricity more than 99% of the time. To maintain reliability at such high levels, energy companies have to continually invest in electric transmission- and distribution systems. Since customers of electricity cannot switch from one distribution network to another, no economic incentive exists that matches the supplied reliability to customer preferences. Either under- or over-investment in reliability may thus result. In order to introduce market-like incentives, the Dutch Energy Regulator introduced a regulatory system based on the (perceived) costs of power outages. An essential ingredient of the regulation is the cost of a power outage of a particular duration (i.e., 1 minute). This paper measures these outage cost by using conjoint analysis. We find that the social cost of the present Dutch level of reliability — that is, one outage of two hours every four years — is €2.80 on average for every household, and €33.10 on average for every SME firm. The total costs to Dutch society are almost €50 million.     

Evaluating Economic Value of Coastal Waterfront in Tokyo Bay, Japan with Willingness-to-Accept Measure

The total economic value of a coastal waterfront or coastal zone is important for policymakers and analysts concerned with coastal issues to evaluate policies that affect coastal management. A coastal waterfront as common goods is usually valuated with a measure of willingness to pay (WTP) for the improvement of coastal ecosystem functions from a demand side. However, there is a trend that the landscapes of a coastal waterfront like viewing the sea should be regarded as one of the property rights of coastal residents in Japan. Thus a coastal waterfront is necessarily evaluated with a measure of willingness to accept (WTA) the compensation for the loss of the accessibility to a coastal waterfront from a supply side because a number of empirical literatures show that WTP is usually substantially lower than WTA. This paper elicits the WTA for the loss of accessibility to coastal waterfronts using contingent valuation method provided that the accessibility should be regarded as one part of residents’ property rights. The result shows that the WTA in Tokyo bay is 65.3 million yen per household, more than ten times their annual household income. The total economic value of Tokyo bay is estimated as 539 trillion yen, which can be taken into consideration in the coastal risk assessment process to evaluate the efficiency of coastal risk reduction measures.     

我国电网工程造价管理模式的发展与完善

研究我国电网工程造价管理模式的发展历程,完善现有的造价管理模式是实现工程造价的可控、在控的技术支撑,是对电网工程造价管理理论和方法的探索。首先结合我国投资体制改革,以时间为主线分析造价管理模式的发展历程;然后分别从计价体系、管理流程和组织结构3个层面分析我国电网工程造价管理模式的现状及存在的问题;在此基础上通过对国外先进造价管理经验的归纳总结,对进一步完善我国未来造价管理模式提出建议。     

连续值命题逻辑中公式的条件相对重言度理论

基于Lukasiewicz命题逻辑系统提出一般性的赋值密度函数,定义了公式的概率真度、条件概率真度的概念,引入了公式的条件相对Γ-重言度,并给出了若干性质。利用公式的条件相对Γ-重言度,定义了公式间的条件相对Γ-相似度,进而导出了伪距离。     

命题逻辑中条件概率真度的相似度及伪距离

通过引入赋值密度函数、边缘密度函数等概念给出了连续值命题逻辑系统中公式条件概率真度的定义,并得到了一些条件概率真度的推理规则;给出了3种相似度的概念,讨论了其性质及关系;定义了3种伪距离,确定了三者之间的比例关系,为推理程度的数值化提供了可靠的依据。     

BIM 机电算量与现行计价制度约束

尽管目前国内 BIM 模型在机电安装工程设计和施工阶段应用较多,但在估价方面却裹足不前,自动提取的机电工程量不能直接用于机电工程估价。针对存在的问题,研究不仅为 BIM 应用潜力和障碍认识提供了新的视角,而且也为政府造价主管部门制定适应 BIM 的造价政策提供了依据。通过理论分析和多案例验证表明,虽然 BIM 能够实现自动准确计算机电工程项目工程量,但是这一优势在估价方面的应用是以改变现有造价制度为条件,国内现行制度阻碍了 BIM 机电工程量的应用。为此,提出将现行工程量清单计价规范的计量规则由强制条文改为任意性条文的解决方案,以顺应 BIM 的发展,促进其价值的有效发挥。     

工程变更估价条款的补充与完善

工程变更估价三原则在合同工程子项价格基本合理的情况下可以公平的高效率的适用,但在合同中可适用参照的工程子项价格明显偏高或偏低的情况下适用该三原则就明显不公平,应该进行补充和完善。文章从工程合同中的不修改合同原则及合同法中的实质公平原则出发,提出了在合同工程子项价格非正常情况下工程变更估价的方法,并据此提出完善工程变更估价三原则的建议。     

城市建设效益综合评价

城市建设效益综合评价是一项复杂的工作,对城市规划、建设与管理有重要意义.本文论述了综合评价的指导思想、观点和原则,初步提出了43项指标作为综合评价的指标体系及各单项指标的分级标准和分配权数,并对分级加权综合法进行了研究.     

Front-Tracking Finite Difference Methods for the Valuation of American Options

This paper is concerned with the numerical solution of the American option valuation problem formulated as a parabolic free boundary/initial value model. We introduce and analyze a front-tracking finite difference method and compare it with other commonly used techniques. The numerical experiments performed indicate that the front-tracking method considered is an efficient alternative for approximating simultaneously the option value and free boundary functions associated with the valuation problem.     

CaCl_2用于辽河油田深井水侵层固井

深井添加ＣａＣｌ２促凝剂固井在辽河油田一度视为禁区。曙光地区杜１２４区块６口３０００－３５００ｍ深井水侵层固并经验表明，在井底循环温度不超过７５℃情况下，向渤海牌７５℃油井水泥中分别添加不同浓度的ＣａＣｌ２促凝剂固井获得成功，有效地抑制了该区块开发井大段水侵作用。