A typology of different development and testing options for symbolic regression modelling of measured and calculated datasets

Data-driven modelling is used to develop two alternative types of predictive environmental model: a simulator, a model of a real-world process developed from either a conceptual understanding of physical relations and/or using measured records, and an emulator, an imitator of some other model developed on predicted outputs calculated by that source model. A simple four-way typology called Emulation Simulation Typology (EST) is proposed that distinguishes between (i) model type and (ii) different uses of model development period and model test period datasets. To address the question of to what extent simulator and emulator solutions might be considered interchangeable i.e. provide similar levels of output accuracy when tested on data different from that used in their development, a pair of counterpart pan evaporation models was created using symbolic regression. Each model type delivered similar levels of predictive skill to that other of published solutions. Input–output sensitivity analysis of the two different model types likewise confirmed two very similar underlying response functions. This study demonstrates that the type and quality of data on which a model is tested, has a greater influence on model accuracy assessment, than the type and quality of data on which a model is developed, providing that the development record is sufficiently representative of the conceptual underpinnings of the system being examined. Thus, previously reported substantial disparities occurring in goodness-of-fit statistics for pan evaporation models are most likely explained by the use of either measured or calculated data to test particular models, where lower scores do not necessarily represent major deficiencies in the solution itself.     

Simulation of the urban climate variations in connection with the transformations of the city of Nantes since the 17th century

The paper seeks to quantify the effect of urban politics on the microclimate of the city of Nantes (France), in particular those initiated by the sanitarians in the mid-19th century to find a remedy for the insalubrity that had been developing with urban densification since the late 17th century. Intensive historical research was first carried out in order to define and date the major transformations undergone by the city, its structure (densification, then widening of the streets, filling of water courses), the lifestyle habits (heating) or the building practices (appearance of stone and paving, higher buildings, insulation). This led to the definition of 5 characteristic states of the city, in 1680, 1756, 1835, 1880 and 1945.     

Issues in the assimilation of the sources of a trace gas by inverse modelling

The problem of reconstructing the (otherwise unknown) source and sink field of a tracer in a fluid is studied by developing and testing a simple tracer transport model of a single-level global atmosphere and a dynamic data assimilation system. The source/sink field (taken to be constant over a 10-day assimilation window) and initial tracer field are analysed together by assimilating imperfect tracer observations over the window.Experiments show that useful information about the source/sink field may be determined from relatively few observations when the initial tracer field is known very accurately a-priori, even when a-priori source/sink information is biased (the source/sink a-priori is set to zero). In this case each observation provides information about the source/sink field at positions upstream and the assimilation of many observations together can reasonably determine the location and strength of a test source.     

Multijunction solar cell design revisited: disruption of current matching by atmospheric absorption bands

This paper re‐examines the impact of atmospheric absorption bands on series‐connected multijunction cell design, motivated by the numerous local efficiency maxima that appear as the number of junctions is increased. Some of the local maxima are related to the bottom subcell bandgap and are already well understood: As the bottom subcell bandgap is varied, a local efficiency maximum is produced wherever the bottom cell bandgap crosses an atmospheric absorption band. The optimal cell designs at these local maxima are generally current matched, such that all subcells have nearly the same short‐circuit current. Here, we systematically describe additional local maxima that occur wherever an upper subcell bandgap encounters an atmospheric absorption band. These local maxima are not current matched and become more prevalent as the number of junctions increases, complicating the solution space for five‐junction and six‐junction designs. A systematic framework for describing this complexity is developed, and implications for numerical convergence are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inrush current estimation and hot-swapping for safe parallel battery pack

ABSTRACT

Batteries used in electric vehicles and microgrid applications use battery modules connected in series to satisfy the voltage required for each system, and battery modules are connected in parallel to increase capacity. In this parallel connected system, in order to disconnect and reconnect a specific battery module or to reconnect a new battery module, the battery module to be newly connected should have a small state of charge (SOC) difference from the existing battery modules. In particular, when a new battery is to be connected under a load current, there is a problem that excessive inrush current may occur in a specific battery module due to the load current distributed to each module and the current due to the SOC difference. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a method of estimating the inrush current through an equivalent electrical modelling analysis for the case where a battery module is newly added in a system in which the battery modules are connected in parallel. In addition, the power management algorithm for the battery pack system with inrush current estimation is presented. The proposed method is validated through simulations and experiments of a battery pack system in which 10 battery modules of 710V and 120Ah are connected in parallel.     

Optimisation of combined collaborative recommender systems

A new approach to collaborative user modelling is presented in this paper. We have developed a framework that can be used for easy testing of different concepts. We have also introduced three different areas where collaborative modelling can be further improved. For the first phase of testing, we have created a hybrid system based on three different collaborative recommender techniques. Since this system implements multiple collaboration techniques, we decided to call this approach Combined Collaborative Recommender. Although each prediction technique can produce adequate results, we have proved that the combination of these techniques into a unified system provides a much more stable system. It should also be pointed out that these analyses were done using a very large dataset (more than 2 million ratings) providing reliable results. Results of these optimisations are presented along with pointers for further development.     

Generalization of the thermal model of infrared radiation sensors

In many theories and applications, generalized models can give a good head start for further research where the implementation of new elements and/or boundary conditions could become quite complex. In this paper the development of a compact thermal model of an infrared sensor will be presented. This thermal model includes not only the thermal resistances and capacitances of the sensor structure itself but the radiative and convective thermal resistances to the ambience and between the sensor plate and the heat source (thermal transfer impedance) which is important when the heat source and the sensor are in close proximity. Limitations and the applicability of the proposed model are also discussed. We also aim to present how the proposed model can be used for other IR sensor structures as well.     

The shear strength of nano-Ag sintered joints and the use of Ag interconnects in the design and manufacture of SiGe-based thermo-electric modules

Thermo-electric modules (TEMs) can be used to convert heat into electricity by utilizing the Seeback effect. It is now possible to buy BiTe thermo-electric modules that can operate up to temperatures of around 300 °C. However, many applications, such as the harvesting of excess gas turbine heat, may occur at higher temperatures. Therefore, new materials and manufacturing processes need to be developed to produce packaged TEMs that can operate at a maximum operating temperature of 650 °C. Two critical areas in the manufacture of a SiGe TEM are the choice and strength of materials used to both sintered joint the TE material to the rest of the module and the metal used for the interconnects. The interconnection material needs to be sufficiently strong to withstand large temperature fluctuations while maintaining a low contact resistance, as well as being compatible with the nano-Ag sintered joint. Shear force tests of the sintered thermo electrical leg material showed that the joints are brittle when sintered to W metallized AlN substrates are used and ductile fracture behavior when sintered to Cu metallized AlN substrates using the NanoTach K nano silver paste. Almost all of the joints were found to be brittle when using the NachTach X nano silver paste. Shear testing of the sintered joints showed that the X paste joints were variable in strength and stiffness, having a typical Young’s modulus between 10 and 100 MPa at room temperature. The K paste joints were stiffer, but had a similar strength as compared to the X paste joints.