当代高技术计划指要

本文论述了美国的高边疆战略，欧洲和亚洲各国的高技术计划。     

鸡西市城市需水量预测分析

以黑龙江省水资源较为短缺的鸡西市为例,选取2010年为基准年,根据鸡西市城市总体发展规划,并结合当地水资源利用现状,分析预测规划水平年2020年和2030年的城市总需水量,并对预测结果进行合理性分析,在此基础上提出解决鸡西市未来城市需水问题的建议。     

老挝500kV川圹—纳塞通输变电项目变电设计方案研究

变电站设计,应考虑有效地利用资金,以最小的代价,最大限度地提高变电站的相关功能,整体提升电力系统的供电质量,最大限度提高供电可靠性。本文基于在老挝地区相关的工程实践,从日常运营维护、变电站设备电气连接的简化、针对设备发生故障时的响应限制措施以及为未来技术改进留足空间的角度,对川圹—纳塞通输变电项目的变电设计方案进行深入研究比选,最终确定了该项目变电设计方案,奠定了项目开发的基础。     

海绵城市建设的径流控制指标探析

城市化引起的诸多水生态、水环境及洪灾问题均与天然水文条件的破坏紧密相关;水文控制指标是海绵城市建设中的关键控制指标。在调研国际城市雨洪管理的演变及目前城市水文控制指标发展趋势的基础上,提出海绵城市建设所必需的水文控制指标体系概念。该体系包括维持河湖湿地基流与地下水补给的入渗控制指标,减少雨洪面源污染的水质控制指标,防止河道侵蚀的水土侵蚀控制指标,以及避免小量级洪涝和减轻极端洪涝灾害的洪水控制指标。在此基础上,分析了我国在海绵城市建设中缺乏完整水文控制指标体系的现状,并提出了我国目前在建立城市雨洪管理水文控制指标工作中亟待开展的工作,为海绵城市建设中合理确定适合各地具体条件的水文控制指标体系提供研究思路与参考。     

Computation of optimum reliability acceptance sampling plans in presence of hybrid censoring

The decision regarding acceptance or rejection of a lot of products may be considered through variables acceptance sampling plans based on suitable quality characteristics. A variables sampling plan to determine the acceptability of a lot of products based on the lifetime of the products is called reliability acceptance sampling plan (RASP). This work considers the determination of optimum RASP under cost constraint in the framework of hybrid censoring. Weibull lifetime models are considered for illustrations; however, the proposed methodology can be easily extended to any location-scale family of distributions. The proposed method is based on asymptotic results of the estimators of parameters of lifetime distribution. Hence, a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted in order to show that the sampling plans meet the specified risks for finite sample size.     

基于情景应对模式的突发地质灾害应急防治探讨

突发地质灾害应急防治宜采用“情景-应对”模式,应急预案制定及应急决策离不开情景分析与推演。情景静态特性表现为地质灾害风险认知,可描述为灾害地质体特征、承灾体特征和地质环境条件等要素;情景动态特性可通过演变后果体现,即关键节点的应对需求变化。通过情景要素的应急响应特性分析,选择响应启动时间、灾害空间范围为一级标准,灾害地质特征和引发因素为二级标准,应对能力满足程度为辅助标准,初步提出了情景分类的框架。并针对单点滑坡、单体危岩（崩塌）、单沟泥石流、跨区地质灾害、区域强降雨、地震次生地质灾害和跨区地质灾害等常见情景,分别给出了应急调查处置方案要点。     

上海市不同历时暴雨组合概率研究

基于上海市徐家汇站1960—2011年的日降雨资料,分析上海市年最大1d和3d降水量年际变化和年代际变化特性;择优选择GH Copula函数构建了年最大1 d与3 d降水量的联合分布模型,并推算它们的同现重现期和组合风险概率。结果表明:年最大1 d和3 d降水随时间呈增加趋势,自20世纪70年代开始其均值随年代增加;年最大1 d和3 d设计暴雨同频遭遇风险率在75%~85%之间,且同现风险率随年最大1 d设计暴雨值增大而增加。在设计上海市防洪排涝标准时若考虑最大1 d和3 d降水量的遭遇组合,有利于提升防洪排涝能力,保障防洪安全。     

Blending science and public policies for remediation of a degraded ecosystem: Jackfish Bay, north shore of Lake Superior, Ontario, Canada

The Jackfish Bay Remedial Action Plan is the first of Lake Superior's Areas of Concern (AOCs) to consider recognition as an Area in Recovery (AiR). As a result of a high degree of complexity and uncertainty, ecosystem recovery in Jackfish Bay has been determined using a combination of regulatory policies and scientific evidence and extensive public and expert-based decision making. As a result, the conceptualization of the AiR status in Jackfish Bay has been developed with the adaptive management and the ecosystem approach, which provide the basic principles of assessing, monitoring, and managing the Area of Concern. To determine the status of beneficial use impairments caused by effluent from the Terrace Bay Pulp Inc., three public advisory committees—an academic panel of experts, a government technical review committee, and the Jackfish Bay Public Area in Recovery Review Committee (PARRC)—reviewed relevant scientific data and documents, including peer-reviewed publications, to assess changes in pollution levels in Jackfish Bay and improvements to aquatic, biotic, and benthic environments of the bay. The public decision-making process concluded with recommendations by the PARRC to develop a systematic monitoring program so that the ecosystem recovery process in the bay could be assessed on a continued basis, leading to its eventual delisting as an AOC. The entire process provides an example of blending science and public policies for remediation of a degraded ecosystem on the Great Lakes.     

盐城市实行最严格水资源管理制度的实践与思考

江苏省盐城市在实行最严格水资源管理制度的初步实践中,深入思考了制定最严格的地下水管理政策、试点差别水资源费与差别水价制度、实施区域水质交接与生态补偿制度、提升水资源管理和节水科研水平、严格水资源管理问责与考评制度等实行最严格水资源管理制度的对策措施,为沿海地区加快实施最严格水资源管理制度提供借鉴。     

安康市水土保持投资及其对农村的影响分析

安康市地处山区,水土流失严重,贫困人口较多。国家对安康市水土流失治理安排了一系列工程项目。投入了大量资金,促进了农村经济发展。依据1985--2004年期间的统计与调查资料,对安康水土保持投资来源、使用方向与效果,以及对农村生态环境与经济社会影响进行了初步分析。结果表明：水土保持投资措施使当地的森林覆盖率提高,产业结构发生了明显变化,农民的收入大幅度提高。