基于粗糙集理论和BP神经网络的分层递阶分类算法

根据分层递阶的原则，提出了一种将粗糙集理论与BP神经相结合的分类算法，该算法分别用粗糙集理论和BP神经网络处理决策表中的离散属性和连续属，可以避免对象连续属性离散化中产生不确定的情况。同时粗糙集对于决策表噪声比较敏感，BP神经网络可以克服这个缺点，最后，对3个公共数据库的测试验证了该分类算法的有效性。     

An approach to decision-making with triangular fuzzy reciprocal preference relations and its application

Triangular fuzzy reciprocal preference relations (TFRPRs) are powerful tools to denoting decision-makers’ fuzzy judgments, which permit the decision-makers to apply triangular fuzzy ratio rather than real numbers to express their judgements. Consistency analysis is one of the most crucial issues in preference relations that can guarantee the reasonable ranking order. However, all previous consistency concepts cannot well address this type of preference relations. Based on the operational laws on triangular fuzzy numbers, this paper introduces an additive consistency concept for TFRPRs by using quasi TFRPRs, which can be seen as a natural extension of the crisp case. Using this consistency concept, models to judging the additive consistency of TFRPRs and to estimating missing values in complete TFRPRs are constructed. Then, an algorithm to decision-making with TFRPRs is developed. Finally, two numerical examples are offered to illustrate the application of the proposed procedure, and comparison analysis is performed.     

Nonlinear fusion method for multistage product design decision-making using plant growth simulation algorithm

Design decision-making is a vital activity for selecting an optimal scheme for product development. Owing to the uncertainty and ambiguity of design requirements and constraints, several product design phases are often deployed for concept refinement, which makes multistage product design decision-making (MPDDM) and the effective fusion of MPDDM data indispensable. However, few existing methods have considered the nonlinear relationships among the MPDDM information. Therefore, a nonlinear fusion method for MPDDM was proposed in this study. This method applies a three-parameter interval grey number to depict decision-makers’ judgement about product design schemes. Based on converting linguistic judgements into interval scales, an interval analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was employed to calculate the weights of the design criteria, decision-makers, and decision-making stages. Considering the advantage of integrating multiple matrices without requiring external control parameters, a multistage decision-making fusion process using a plant growth simulation algorithm (PGSA) was proposed to aggregate multistage decision-making data for product design. A case study was conducted to collect multistage decision-making data, and the PGSA was developed. Through comparison with the extant method, the effectiveness and feasibility of the fusion of MPDDM was verified. The results indicate that (1) uncertainty perceived by decision-makers at three stages accounted for 96.7%, 95%, and 97.2%, respectively. The “center of gravity” of a three-parameter interval grey number, which reflects the largest possibility of decision-makers’ preferences, is not always equally distant from its maximum or minimum value (73.9%). (2) The optimization model using interval AHP to calculate the weights of decision-making indicators and stages is conducive to reducing the decision-maker’s uncertainty. (3) The global search mechanism of the PGSA can effectively realize the nonlinear fusion of MPDDM.     

关于B2B远程客户开拓中的难点及对策研究

本文通过对B2B远程开拓中困扰团队2个难点：如何赢得决策链信任,如何提升商机的立项率进行深入分析,结合笔者长期一线工作经验,提出了如何有效攻克这两个难题的一系列对策和建议,希望对团队的远程市场开拓工作有所借鉴。     

Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost–benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle.     

A probabilistic model for interactive decision-making

A probabilistic reasoning model is defined where the decision maker (d.m.) is engaged in a sequential information-gathering process facing the trade-off between the reliability of the achieved solution and the associated observation cost. The d.m. is directly involved in the proposed flexible control strategy, which is based on information-theoretic principles. The devised strategy works on a Bayesian belief network that allows the efficient representation and manipulation of the knowledge base relevant to the problem domain. It is shown that this strategy guarantees a constant factor approximate solution with respect to the optimum of the decision problem. Some application examples are also discussed.     

市场环境下输电能力研究的简要回顾与展望

电力市场交易要求输电网信息具有透明性。这样,如何计算输电能力,对此能力如何评价、决策,以及此能力与技术、经济、市场间的关系就成为电力市场领域研究和实践的重要问题。本文围绕输电能力这一主题,针对国内外研究现状,就输电能力研究的相关问题进行简要回顾与评述,在此基础上进行总结和提炼,最后对输电能力的研究进行展望。     

海外矿业投资决策系统要素分析

系统分析了矿业投资的特点、矿业投资决策的主要内容与阶段划分、海外矿业投资决,策的基本要素和风险因素,为海外矿业投资决策者提供参考.     

Quality management implementation across different scenarios of competitive structure: an empirical investigation

This study aims to determine if there are differences in quality management (QM) implementation across competitive environments and if so, how and why they differ. With these objectives, we develop several propositions relating the competitive environment to QM implementation practices. To test our propositions, we gathered a sample of 273 European managers. We presented 16 different factors of competitive structure to members of the sample and elicited their likelihood of implementing different QM practices. The research findings indicated that high buyer and customer power were associated with a preference for cost reducing-oriented QM practices. We also found that the managers are more likely to try to boost profitability by focusing on QM practices aimed at differentiation when intensity of competitive rivalry or threat of new entrants is high. We conclude with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications of our results.     

野战机场抢修抢建施工方案决策与自动生成系统的研究

为解决作战条件下野战机场抢修抢建工程施工方案制订效率不高和精度有限的问题,建立了施工方案支持的辅助决策模型,开发了野战机场抢修抢建施工方案决策与自动生成系统,该系统能根据野战机场工程施工的特点和需求,为决策者作出正确的施工方案决策提供支持,并能自动生成施工方案。通过实际应用表明,该系统运行稳定,决策生成的施工方案具有较高的可靠性。