El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Rainfall Variability in Central and Southern Sudan

Abstract

In this study, the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the rainfall variability in the central (Savannah) and southern (Equatorial) regions of Sudan are examined. The annual rainfall data from 12 rainfall stations for 49 years are used in this examination. The results of the study show that the areal annual regionally averaged rainfall values in the two regions have decreased markedly since the early 1960s, with co-existence between the driest years and the warm ENSO events. The correlation between the annual regional rainfall values and the ENSO events is found to be relatively higher for the Savannah region than for the Equatorial region. Two regional ENSO-rainfall prediction models are developed, one for each region. These models use the ENSO sea surface temperature. The results of the models test show that both models can significantly improve the predictability of the annual rainfall values, which is essential for the planning and the management of water resources in Sudan     

西南山区泥石流灾害与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件时空耦合关系分析

研究在厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件的影响下西南山区泥石流灾害的时空分布特征,将有助于为泥石流灾害的预测预报提供基础指导。根据统计数据,结合GIS空间分析技术,研究西南山区泥石流灾害事件与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件的时空耦合关系。研究结果显示:厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件年西南山区泥石流灾害暴发频率在时间上总体呈增加趋势,且拉尼娜年发生频次多于厄尔尼诺年;厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件年西南山区泥石流灾害暴发在空间分布上主要集中于藏东南山区、横断山区、滇东北、贵州西部、贵州西南部、滇西北、大渡河及雅砻江流域等地区;厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜年西南山区泥石流灾害点的降雨量总体上大于多年平均降雨量。西南山区泥石流灾害事件与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件存在明显的关联性,研究两者关系特征,将有助于对西南山区泥石流灾害进行多方位、准确合理的预测预报。     

Application of WASP model for assessment of water quality for eutrophication control for a reservoir in the Peruvian Andes

Water quality models are important tools for facilitating assessment of the main processes occurring in an aquatic system. To this end, a water quality analysis simulation programme (WASP8) was used to assess the eutrophication process in El Pañe Reservoir. The reservoir has a useful water volume of 99.6 hm³ and is connected to six other reservoirs located in the Chili Basin of the Arequipa Region. El Pañe Reservoir, which is the basin head, has exhibited eutrophication problems since 2014, causing water treatment problems for human consumption and a high probability of cyanotoxin releases from intensive algal blooms. Accordingly, the reservoir was divided into 11 segments, ammonia, nitrate, phosphate, total phosphate, dissolved oxygen, water temperature and chlorophyll‐a being the simulated water quality parameters. The simulations were set in a steady state condition for 3 years from October 2015 to October 2018, subsequently determining aquaculture activity and benthic flux as being meaningful nutrient sources impacting the phytoplankton community. The results of the present study provide necessary evidence of the need to exhaustively quantify both sources in future research, which will aid decision makers in identifying the best management option that can help guarantee the sustainable development of the involved human activities.     

Ultrastructural preservation of tissues and their reaction to the infection with trichinella in the El Plomo mummy: Muscle fiber ultrastructure and trichinosis/mummy of the Cerro El Plomo

The El Plomo mummy was a pre‐Columbian Incan child who was found mummified in the Andes Mountains above an altitude of 17,700 feet. In the environment, natural mummification occurred due to low temperatures and strong winds. Dating measurements (relative dating) by experts from the National Museum of Natural History of Chile established that the mummified body corresponds the Inca period (1,450 to 1,500 AD). In 2003, the body was transferred to the University of Chile Medical School for exhaustive medical examination. Tissue samples from the right quadriceps muscle were extracted and fixed in glutaraldehyde and postfixed in osmium tetroxide to obtain ultrathin sections to be observed by transmission electron microscope. Images were recorded on photographic paper, digitalized and analyzed by experts on morphology. Results showed a preservation of cell boundaries in striated muscle cells, but specific subcellular organelles or contractile sarcomeric units (actin and myosin) were unable to be recognized. However, the classical ultrastructural morphology of the polypeptide collagen type I was preserved intact both in primary and secondary organization. Therefore, we concluded that the process of natural mummification by freezing and strong winds is capable of damaging the ultrastructure of muscle cells and preserving collagen type I intact.     

不同降水资料在我国降水变异研究中的对比

基于中国气象站点和高分辨率地表气候变量数据集CRU中的降水数据,利用变异系数、持续时间和突变3个指标,分别表征变异性在变异量、时间结构和跳跃式的变化,研究了1982~2000年我国各月份降水的变异性变化特征。结果表明:月降水量变化幅度较大,冬季降水量变化幅度大于夏季;各月份降水均无长期持续的变化趋势,变异较显著;降水突变现象主要出现在7月和9月,11月降水突变最少,1983年因为El Nino现象是降水突变现象最多年份。2份降水数据在不同的变异指标使用中结果略有差异,站点数据在降水量的变异研究中信号清晰,而CRU数据在降水突变现象中更能体现全国范围的实际情况。     

2016年长江洪水特点与启示

受超强厄尔尼诺事件以及西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏西等海洋、大气环流、气候因子共同影响,2016年长江中下游梅雨期降雨异常偏多、暴雨过程频发,发生区域性大洪水,部分支流发生特大洪水。详细分析了2016年长江洪水的暴雨成因、暴雨特征以及洪水特点,深入剖析了长江中下游水位持续偏高的原因,并提出了关于长江中下游防洪形势变化的5点启示,以期为灾后重建提供参考和借鉴。     

三网融合中电话信号的预处理

目前,光纤入户已成为实现三网融合的最终解决方案。三网融合的关键技术是三种业务的融合,为了解决这一问题,在PPP的传输模式下,给出了三网融合框图;对公用电话网中E1帧的各路电话信号进行了提取,以满足交换模块对各种信号进行数据交换的要求。主要给出了对E1帧进行预处理的结构图及算法,最后利用QuartusⅡ软件对E1帧的15路电话信号的提取进行了仿真。仿真结果表明,对E1帧进行预处理的方法可行。     

FA36网络中VOIP的应用

新建的FA36网络是一个功能强大的综合网络平台,该平台可以提供多种业务接入方式。文中讨论了VOIP的基本原理、呼叫流程以及VOIP在FA36~络中的运用方法。     

Galapagos indicator of El Niño using monthly SST from NASA Giovanni system

One geographical point could be sufficient to track El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This paper describes an approach to such tracking based on environmental modeling of sea surface temperature (SST). The key model of the approach is the most anomalous indicator of SST as a point near Isabella Island, Galapagos. This point can be computed using monthly SST data from NASA Giovanni system. Comparison with most popular indices demonstrates that such Galapagos indicator can clear indicate both El Niño and La Niña events.     

Bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current derived from altimetry in the Pacific Ocean

1. INTRODUCTION In the western North Pacific, the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcates into the northward flowing Kuroshio and the southward flowing Mindanao Current as it encounters the Philippine coast[1-3]. The bifurcation latitude has direct infl…