基于加权预测的GDP研究

“中国今年超越美国成世界头号经济体”说法来自世界银行2014年4月29日的一份报告。对于中国GDP何时能够超过美国的问题,本文在已有研究的基础上,对于多项式拟合模型与指数预测模型进行加权,从而得到一个加权预测模型,并比较加权预测模型与多项式拟合模型、指数预测模型之间的优劣性。同时选取中国和美国1991-2013年的GDP数据,分别运用加权预测模型与多项式拟合模型进行了研究,得出大约在2025年左右,中国的GDP可能超过美国。     

对宽带的再认识

文章从宽带发展的现状、内涵、作用及前景4个方面,对当今宽带进行了再认识。文章认为宽带不仅是推进信息化、持续发展经济社会的重要基础设施,而且是在网络空间中维护国家主权和安全的坚实后盾;宽带还能够提高整个经济领域的生产率和效率,从而拉动GDP的发展;宽带是实现未来可持续发展目标(SDG)的基本技术。文章还指出中国的宽带的建设,需要注入更多的投资,并在政府的带领下落实各种政策,才有可能更好地发挥宽带的巨大作用。     

New paradigm of ICT productivity – Increasing role of un-captured GDP and growing anger of consumers

The dramatic advancement of the Internet has led all nations to an information communication technology (ICT) driven development trajectory. This trajectory has resulted in bi-polarization between ICT growing economies and ICT advanced economies. While the former enjoys a virtuous cycle between ICT advancement and productivity increase, the later has fallen into a trap of a vicious cycle between ICT advancement and productivity decrease.This paper identifies that this trap can be attributed to the two-faced nature of ICT in which advancement of ICT contributes to price increases due to functionality development while dramatic advancement of the Internet has resulted in price decreases due to freebies, easy copying and standardization.Based on an empirical analysis of a customer preference shift from economic functionality to supra-functionality beyond economic value, this paper unveils the increasing conflict between captured GDP and un-captured GDP derived from the Internet advancement which promotes a freer culture, the consumption of which provides utility and happiness but cannot be captured through GDP data that measures revenue.It was demonstrated that this conflict has led to an emerging growing anger of consumers which can be transformed into a springboard for new innovation leading to a trigger of innovation-consumption co-emergence.     

基于灰色关联分析的我国能源消费与经济增长关系研究

我国能源结构极不平衡,富煤贫油少气。积极优化能源结构,合理控制能源消费总量,加快转变经济发展模式,势在必行。本文主要依据1996年~2012年的GDP与能源消费量的统计数据,利用灰色关联分析建立模型,对能源消费种类与经济增长的关联度进行定量分析,得出能源与国民经济发展的关联程度依次大小为天然气＞可再生能源＞石油＞煤炭,为我国进行优化能源结构提供了一定的理论依据。     

The Impact of Economic Development on Water Pollution: Trends and Policy Actions in Malaysia

The paper examines the impact of development activities on water pollution in Malaysia. Hence, the main objective of this paper is not just to examine the trends of development-induced water pollution around the region of the country but to know where the problems are and the policy measures taken by the government. It evaluates the probable causative relationship between problems introduced due to technology employed in water pollution control and governmental policy measures. It examines the relationship between development indicators as sources of pollution and polluted rivers over a period of 12 years. The findings of the paper have shown that despite the policy enforcement actions against the identified sources of water pollution, all the three development indicators (chosen based on those identified sources) still accounted for high percentage of river pollution in Malaysia. The findings of the paper were used to identify the central fact of the location of the problem. Some crucial conclusions of where the problems likely to be, as reflected in the findings, are: (a) the issue of interactive-effects between pollutants that many policy-makers are not aware of. This is when policy measures concentrate only on one source of water pollution; (b) the enforcement strength and/or effectiveness of policy measures themselves; (c) financial constraints to invest in appropriate technology especially sewerage systems for controlling human source of water pollution in the country; as well as those confronting small polluting industries (d) finally, lack of cooperation between government and private business firms to comply with regulatory policies for water pollution control.     

中、日、韩三国钢铁业与经济发展规律关系辨析

通过对东亚中、日、韩三国钢铁生产和GDP增长之间相关性分析，揭示了两者之间在不同的发展阶段存在的关系。研究发现，在工业化阶段，钢铁产量和经济发展相关性很强，钢铁产业的快速发展是经济迅速发展的必由之路；工业化完成以后，钢铁产业的发展受国家政策的左右。     

我国丙烯需求与GDP的关系及预测

分析了 1 983- 1 998年我国丙烯及衍生物的供求情况 ,并将丙烯需求与国内生产总值相关联 ,以此为依据 ,预测了今后 1 0年我国丙烯的当量需求。     

Co-evolution between trust in teachers and higher education toward digitally-rich learning environments

Based on a powerful notion that the quality of higher education is crucial for innovation in digital economy and that such quality is subject to a conception of trust in teachers to deliver good education and advancement of information and communication technology (ICT), the dynamism of co-evolution between them was analyzed.Using a unique dataset representing the above system consisting of the rate of trust in teachers providing good education in the context of quality of education and their social status, of the level of higher education and the state of ICT advancement toward digitally-rich learning environments, an empirical numerical analysis of 20 countries was attempted. These countries were classified as advanced, semi-advanced and growing.It was found that while ICT advanced countries have embarked on co-evolution of ICT, higher education and trust, ICT growing countries have not been successful in this due to a vicious cycle between ICT and trust. Finland's educational success can be attributed to co-evolution which corresponds to the emergence of un-captured GDP similarly to the leading edge of an ICT-driven disruptive business model. The paradox of education productivity in ICT growing countries can be attributed to disengagement.It is suggested that steady ICT advancement fully utilizing external resources in digitally-rich learning environments may be essential to ICT growing countries in achieving higher education. On the other hand, continuing transcending innovation to transform learning environments into new digitally-rich learning environments should be maintained in ICT advanced countries.A new approach for constructing the above-described co-evolution in a systematic way was thus explored.     

基于经济周期视角的煤炭消费和GDP关系探究

采用经济周期理论,将1978～2011年划分为不同的经济周期,利用灰色关联序、煤炭消费弹性系数、能源结构影响能源效率计量模型等分析方法,对不同经济周期内中国煤炭消费与经济增长之间的互动关系进行深入研究。主要结论有:改革开放后,GDP增长对于煤炭消费的依赖程度因经济周期不同而有所改变,与其关联程度最高的能源品种经历了"煤-石油-煤"的变革;产业结构、能源结构的调整以及煤炭利用效率的变动等因素共同作用,形成了不同经济周期内集约性或粗放型两种截然不同的经济发展方式;此外,经济过快增长背后低效率煤炭的大量使用问题应引起高度关注。     

Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire

Identifying and quantifying the statistical relationships between climate and anthropogenic drivers of fire is important for global biophysical modelling of wildfire and other Earth system processes. This study used regression tree and random forest analysis on global data for various climatic and human variables to establish their relative importance. The main interactions found at the global scale also apply regionally: greatest wildfire burned area is associated with high temperature (> 28 °C), intermediate annual rainfall (350-1100 mm), and prolonged dry periods (which varies by region). However, the regions of highest fire incidence do not show clear and systematic behaviour. Thresholds seen in the regression tree split conditions vary, as do the interplay between climatic and anthropogenic variables, so challenges remain in developing robust predictive insight for the most wildfire-threatened regions.Anthropogenic activities alter the spatial extent of wildfires. Gross domestic product (GDP) density is the most important human predictor variable at the regional scale, and burned area is always greater when GDP density is minimised. South America is identified as a region of concern, as anthropogenic factors (notably land conversions) outweigh climatic drivers of wildfire burned area.