Improving Water Supply Outlook in Korea with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to propose an alternative forecasting approach for improving the current water supply outlook in Korea. Using a rainfall-runoff model, the existing technique for the water supply outlook in Korea produces monthly low, average, and high runoff forecasts. The proposed technique is called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP), and is currently implemented by the National Weather Service in the U.S.A. ESP appears particularly valid in Korea where the historical rainfall record is much more comprehensive than the historical streamflow record. This study applies ESP to runoff forecasting for a river basin in Korea to examine its applicability. An ensemble of one-month ahead runoff forecasts at the Gongju gauging station in the Keum River basin, Korea, was generated for each month. The resulting ESP forecasts were compared with the corresponding observed runoff data as well as the existing forecasts. Although this study is limited to one case study, the following conclusions can be made: (1) the ESP technique dominates the existing forecasting techniques in terms of both systematic and random errors; and (2) ESP is more accurate when high flows occur.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Biometric identification,financial inclusion and economic growth in India: does mobile penetration matter?

ABSTRACT

Using data on major Indian states during 2001–2014, the paper analyzes the impact of AIM (Aadhaar, Inclusion and Mobile) trinity on economic growth. Using advanced panel data techniques, the evidence suggests that mobile penetration exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. In addition, there exist strong complementarities between mobile telephony and financial inclusion. The magnitude of the complementarity is significantly higher in case of financial use as compared with financial access. In addition, the evidence points to the fact that biometric identification process (Aadhaar) is making its impact felt on financial inclusion, primarily by improving financial access.     

中印洪水神话及其背景

在世界各民族童年时代的记忆中,大多都留有关于洪水的印象,中国和印度亦如是。众多学者对中西洪水神话进行了比较研究,但是,对于与中国毗邻,有着深远渊源,文化性格却与中国和西方迥异的印度却很少有人论及。现拟介绍印度的几种洪水神话并对中国和印度洪水神话产生及流传的背景进行探讨,以期有助于相关比较研究的进一步展开。     

Competitiveness and an Emerging Sector: The Russian Software Industry and its Global Linkages

This paper analyzes the Russian software industry in the context of trade in information technology services. We assess Russia's underlying sources of competitive edge in software, such as its scientific establishments, education system, diaspora and low costs, and identify the institutional impediments to growth. A survey reveals that foreign outsourcing contracts, a high value-added niche and high education levels characterize Russia's small, privately held software firms. A comparison with the Indian software industry underscores the structural differences in outsourcing relationships developed by the two countries and emphasizes that national advantages are complex amalgamations of many factors and need to be overtly marketed. Beyond the resources that give comparative and competitive advantage to a transitioning economy, a critical role is played by powerful industry organizations and by non-market state institutions that can level the economic field and inject credibility into market structures.     

Prevalence,characterization, and genetic diversity of Listeria monocytogenes isolated from foods of animal origin in North East India

Listeria monocytogenes is a pathogenic microorganism infects man mostly through food. A total of 1615 samples of foods of animal origin and water were collected from retail meat shops of North-Eastern India and processed. Sixty-three (3.9%) samples were positive for L. monocytogenes. Animal origin foods showing the highest prevalence was chevon (9.8%) followed by beef (8.9%), chicken (8.5%), pork (2.8%) and milk (1.8%). The prevalence rate in water from retail meat shops was 10%. Recovered L. monocytogenes were distributed into 3 serogroups, of which 74.6% fit in to 1/2a, 3a serogroup, 17.5% to 1/2b, 3b and 7.9 % to 4b, 4d, 4e serogroups. Thirty-five isolates out of 63 possessed all the tested four virulence genes. RAPD- and ERIC -PCR based analyses jointly revealed a discriminative genetic profile for the L. monocytogenes. On the whole, the occurrence of L. monocytogenes in foods of animal origin of North Eastern India displays public health hazard.     

Carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy

This study investigates the long and short run relationships among carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in India at the aggregated and disaggregated levels during 1971–2014. The autoregressive distributed lag model is employed for the cointegration analyses and the vector error correction model is applied to determine the direction of causality between variables. Results show that a long run cointegration relationship exists and that the environmental Kuznets curve is validated at the aggregated and disaggregated levels. Furthermore, energy (total energy, gas, oil, electricity and coal) consumption has a positive relationship with carbon emissions and a feedback effect exists between economic growth and carbon emissions. Thus, energy-efficient technologies should be used in domestic production to mitigate carbon emissions at the aggregated and disaggregated levels. The present study provides policy makers with new directions in drafting comprehensive policies with lasting impacts on the economy, energy consumption and environment towards sustainable development.     

From the Raj to Independence: British investment in the Indian electricity sector

During the colonial times, electricity in India developed for a significant part thanks to British investment. Its growth remained modest and mainly linked to industrial needs, public lighting and common transportation. World War II stimulated industrial production and, consequently, the demand for electricity. The immediate years following the war were even more promising since the preparations for national Independence included a major restructuring of electricity generation and distribution. The 1948 Law on electricity and the first 5-year plans which began in 1951 set the framework for a major development. Instead of nationalization, India chose a policy which allowed for the participation of both private and public enterprises. British and Indian private investment responded positively to the change. At the beginning of the 1950s, the British presence was felt in the power industry. However, a decade later, it was already diminishing. This paper explains the nature of the policy which allowed a partnership between private and public sectors, the reasons why the latter finally prevailed over the former and the consequences on British investment.     

Fuel choices in rural Maharashtra

We report on and analyze the results of an energy use survey in two tribal villages in rural Maharashtra, India. Though there is significant heterogeneity between the effects of the variables in the two villages there are some robust results. We find modest evidence for the ‘energy ladder’ hypothesis and that use of higher quality energy sources reduces total energy use, ceteris paribus. Income elasticities of fuel use are small. Additionally, we demonstrate that household size, stove ownership, and season influence energy choices. However, the effects of improved stoves are small and not consistent across the villages.     

A hybrid multi-criteria decision-making method for cloud adoption: Evidence from the healthcare sector

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the main determinants (criteria as well as sub-criteria) influencing the adoption decision of cloud computing (CC) in the healthcare sector. In the present study, qualitative interviews and the Delphi method are used to find the relevance of identified determinants (criteria and sub-criteria) from literature. Further, an integrated hybrid approach of interpretive structural modeling, analytic hierarchy process, and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (ISM-AHP-TOPSIS) have been employed to identify interrelationships among criteria, rank critical criteria as well as subcriteria, and find the most suitable cloud service provider (CSP) respectively. This study analyses seven criteria and twenty-one sub-criteria that offers a roadmap to decision-makers before CC-adoption (CCA). The analysis of ISM and AHP revealed technology as the most critical and human-environment as the least critical criteria. The vital sub-criteria associated with each criterion are Management Strategic Planning (under Organisation), Government Policy (External Environment), Security (Technology), Financing of IT in Hospital (Economic), Perceived Visibility (Social), and Attitude of Colleagues about Cloud Computing (Human Environment). The results from TOPSIS revealed CSP5 being the most suitable service provider followed by CSP2. Finally, this research makes methodological contribution in terms of an integrated hybrid method, to select a suitable CSP for the healthcare sector and the theoretical contribution in terms of criteria & sub-criteria. This article answers an important question, i.e., whether the benefits of CCA outweighs its barriers, thereby exploring the potential (and future) of CC for the advancement of healthcare provision.     

What is the future of solar energy? Economic and policy barriers

The most important characteristics and limitations of solar energy were reviewed in this study. The analysis of different aspects indicated that the most important global challenges of solar energy development were climatic challenges, technical constraints, and unwillingness to make investments. After describing current conditions and predicting the future of solar energy, this study analyzed the policies formulated by developed countries to develop this from of energy. Accordingly, China has gotten ahead of other countries in this industry due to the technological production of solar panels and governmental supports. Finally, the economic estimation of solar energy was presented by dealing with the economic barriers to this form of energy in developed countries. According to the significant growth in the reduction of solar energy electricity production cost, this source of energy can be used as a major source in the future. It was then recommended to use a hybrid of solar energy with other sources such as wind to reduce the costs.