Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of the Spatial Agro Hydro Salinity Model (SAHYSMOD) in the semi-arid climate of Rechna Doab,Pakistan

Manual calibration of distributed models with many unknown parameters can result in problems of equifinality and high uncertainty. In this study, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique was used to address these issues through uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a distributed watershed scale model (SAHYSMOD) for predicting changes in the groundwater levels of the Rechna Doab basin, Pakistan. The study proposes and then describes a stepwise methodology for SAHYSMOD uncertainty analysis that has not been explored in any study before. One thousand input data files created through Monte Carlo simulations were classified as behavior and non-behavior sets using threshold likelihood values. The model was calibrated (1983–1988) and validated (1998–2003) through satisfactory agreement between simulated and observed data. Acceptable values were observed in the statistical performance indices. Approximately 70% of the observed groundwater level values fell within uncertainty bounds. Groundwater pumping (Gw) and hydraulic conductivity (Kaq) were found to be highly sensitive parameters affecting groundwater recharge.     

Persistent Scatterers Interferometry detects and measures ground subsidence in Lisbon

Results from the application of Persistent Scatterers Interferometry in Lisbon Metropolitan Area revealed two previously unknown subsiding urban areas: one (Laranjeiras) is located in the center of Lisbon; another (Vialonga) is to be found toward the North, in an industrial region crossed by Lisbon's main highway and railway lines. The two subsiding sectors are bordered by sharp velocity gradients, and the subsidence pattern appears partially delimited by mapped geologic faults. Surface geology and urbanization alone are unable to explain the phenomena. In the Vialonga area, the historical record of water pore pressure shows a clear decline of the levels (up to 65 m in 27 years), providing evidence of over-exploitation of groundwater resources. Limited information from wells drilled inside and outside the subsidence area points to a spatial correlation between the subsidence and the water pressure levels, and suggests that faults could be acting as hydraulic barriers in the aquifer system. The surface subsidence detected is probably caused by compaction of a clay-rich Oligocene-aged aquitard, led by over-exploitation of adjacent aquifers. The same Oligocene aquitard layer is present in the Laranjeiras area, immediately bellow a multi-layered sand-clay-limestone Miocene aquifer, but further work is needed to diagnose the possibility of over-exploitation of groundwater here. In this work we were able to independently confirm the PSI results, by comparing autonomous PSI results processed for the same geographical areas, and by comparing PSI with leveling and continuous GPS derived subsidence velocities, whose close match provided further ground validation of the space-borne PSI technique.     

Satellite-based estimates of groundwater storage variations in large drainage basins with extensive floodplains

This study presents monthly estimates of groundwater anomalies in a large river basin dominated by extensive floodplains, the Negro River Basin, based on the synergistic analysis using multisatellite observations and hydrological models. For the period 2003-2004, changes in water stored in the aquifer is isolated from the total water storage measured by GRACE by removing contributions of both the surface reservoir, derived from satellite imagery and radar altimetry, and the root zone reservoir simulated by WGHM and LaD hydrological models. The groundwater anomalies show a realistic spatial pattern compared with the hydrogeological map of the basin, and similar temporal variations to local in situ groundwater observations and altimetry-derived level height measurements. Results highlight the potential of combining multiple satellite techniques with hydrological modeling to estimate the evolution of groundwater storage.     

A new package for simulating periodic boundary conditions in MODFLOW and SEAWAT

Modeling of coastal groundwater systems is a challenging problem due to their highly dynamic boundary conditions and the coupling between the equations for groundwater flow and solute transport. A growing number of publications on aquifers subject to tides have demonstrated various modeling approaches, ranging from analytical solutions to comprehensive numerical models. The United States Geological Survey code SEAWAT has been a popular choice in studies of this type. Although SEAWAT allows the incorporation of time-variant boundary conditions, the implementation of tidal boundaries is not straightforward, especially when a seepage face develops during falling tide. Here, a new package is presented, called the periodic boundary condition (PBC) package, that can be incorporated into MODFLOW and SEAWAT to overcome the difficulties encountered with tidal boundaries. It dynamically updates the boundary conditions for head and concentration during the simulation depending on a user-defined tidal signal and allows for the development of a seepage face. The package has been verified by comparing it to four different published models of tidally influenced groundwater systems of varying complexity. Excellent agreement was obtained in all cases. The new package is an important extension to the existing capabilities of MODFLOW and SEAWAT with respect to simulating periodic boundary conditions.     

Predicting the unexpected

Dagstuhl seminar no. 10102 on discrete event logistic systems recognized a network of persistent models to be a “Grand Challenge.” Such on-line model network will offer an infrastructure that facilitates the management of logistic operations. This ambition to create a network of persistent models implies a radical shift for model design activities as the objective is an infrastructure rather than application-specific solutions. In particular, model developers can no longer assume that they know what their model will be used for. It is no longer possible to design for the expected.This paper presents insights in model development and design in the absence of precise knowledge concerning a model's usage. Basically, model developers may solely rely on the presence of the real-world counterpart mirrored by their model and a general idea about the nature of the application (e.g. coordination of logistic operations). When the invariants of their real-world counterpart suffice for models to be valid, these models become reusable and integrate-able. As these models remain valid under a wide range of situations, they become multi-purpose and durable resources rather than single-purpose short-lived components or legacy, which is even worse.Moreover and more specifically, the paper describes how to build models that allow their users to generate predictions in unexpected situations and atypical conditions. Referring to previous work, the paper concisely discusses how these predictions can be generated starting from the models. This prediction-generating technology is currently being transferred into an industrial MES.     

Conservative and aggressive rough SVR modeling

Support vector regression provides an alternative to the neural networks in modeling non-linear real-world patterns. Rough values, with a lower and upper bound, are needed whenever the variables under consideration cannot be represented by a single value. This paper describes two approaches for the modeling of rough values with support vector regression (SVR). One approach, by attempting to ensure that the predicted high value is not greater than the upper bound and that the predicted low value is not less than the lower bound, is conservative in nature. On the contrary, we also propose an aggressive approach seeking a predicted high which is not less than the upper bound and a predicted low which is not greater than the lower bound. The proposal is shown to use ?-insensitivity to provide a more flexible version of lower and upper possibilistic regression models. The usefulness of our work is realized by modeling the rough pattern of a stock market index, and can be taken advantage of by conservative and aggressive traders.     

混合马尔科夫预测模型及其在反洗钱中的应用研究

反洗钱中的一个重要问题是预测可疑账户未来可能发生的交易。马尔科夫模型在股票、商品价格、市场占有率等经济领域的预测中具有广泛的应用,但单一的马尔科夫模型的预测准确性有待提高。提出一种结合数据挖掘中聚类、关联规则和低序马尔科夫模型的混合马尔科夫模型,并在模型的建立过程中基于置信度进行剪枝以降低时间复杂度,最后将该模型用于预测反洗钱领域中账户之间的交易。实验表明,该模型具有较高的预测准确性,并在预测准确性和时间复杂度两者之间取得了较好的平衡。     

Learning based brain emotional intelligence as a new aspect for development of an alarm system

The multi criteria and purposeful prediction approach has been introduced and is implemented by the fast and efficient behavioral based brain emotional learning method. On the other side, the emotional learning from brain model has shown good performance and is characterized by high generalization property. New approach is developed to deal with low computational and memory resources and can be used with the largest available data sets. The scope of paper is to reveal the advantages of emotional learning interpretations of brain as a purposeful forecasting system designed to warning; and to make a fair comparison between the successful neural (MLP) and neurofuzzy (ANFIS) approaches in their best structures and according to prediction accuracy, generalization, and computational complexity. The auroral electrojet (AE) index are used as practical examples of chaotic time series and introduced method used to make predictions and warning of geomagnetic disturbances and geomagnetic storms based on AE index.     

Misfit versus latency

In this paper we present a framework that combines some ideas of the behavioral modeling approach and the prediction error modeling approach. It is shown that the proposed model selection procedure can be rephrased as an optimization problem that only depends on the model parameters. Experiments illustrate the potential of the so-called misfit versus latency framework.