Application of finite mixture models for vehicle crash data analysis

Developing sound or reliable statistical models for analyzing motor vehicle crashes is very important in highway safety studies. However, a significant difficulty associated with the model development is related to the fact that crash data often exhibit over-dispersion. Sources of dispersion can be varied and are usually unknown to the transportation analysts. These sources could potentially affect the development of negative binomial (NB) regression models, which are often the model of choice in highway safety. To help in this endeavor, this paper documents an alternative formulation that could be used for capturing heterogeneity in crash count models through the use of finite mixture regression models. The finite mixtures of Poisson or NB regression models are especially useful where count data were drawn from heterogeneous populations. These models can help determine sub-populations or groups in the data among others. To evaluate these models, Poisson and NB mixture models were estimated using data collected in Toronto, Ontario. These models were compared to standard NB regression model estimated using the same data. The results of this study show that the dataset seemed to be generated from two distinct sub-populations, each having different regression coefficients and degrees of over-dispersion. Although over-dispersion in crash data can be dealt with in a variety of ways, the mixture model can help provide the nature of the over-dispersion in the data. It is therefore recommended that transportation safety analysts use this type of model before the traditional NB model, especially when the data are suspected to belong to different groups.     

小本体PP装置负压回收系统的改造

针对小本体PP装置抽真空排出的含有纯度极高的丙烯气体排入大气这一现状 ,提出了合适的水气分离措施及工艺操作 ,以利于将排空丙烯彻底回收并避免环境污染 ,提高了装置的经济效益     

Ni-MH电池负极材料的产业化

本文叙述了Ni-MH电池的产业化现状,AB_5型储氢合金的生产与质量保证及研究与开发的新趋势。     

微机反时限负序电流保护和事故追忆装置

本文介绍了一种用于发电机的微机反时限负序电流保护装置。装置兼有显示I2及I22t和压缩数据打印功能。为了保证宽频率范围内的测量准确度，采用了自适应采样，装置具有准确、可靠的特点，便于运行和试验。文中简述了硬件、软件和样机试验结果。     

An accident waiting to happen: a spatial approach to proactive pedestrian planning

There are about 75,000 pedestrian crashes in the United States each year. Approximately 5000 of these crashes are fatal, accounting for 12% of all roadway deaths. On college campuses, pedestrian exposure and crash-risk can be quite high. Therefore, we analyzed pedestrian crashes on the campus of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC) as a test case for our spatially-oriented prototype tool that combines perceived-risk (survey) data with police-reported crash data to obtain a more complete picture of pedestrian crash-risk. We use spatial analysis techniques combined with regression models to understand factors associated with risk. The spatial analysis is based on comparing two distributions, i.e. the locations of perceived-risk with police-reported crash locations. The differences between the two distributions are statistically significant, implying that certain locations on campus are perceived as dangerous, though pedestrian crashes have not yet occurred there, and there are actual locations of police-reported crashes that are not perceived to be dangerous by pedestrians or drivers. Furthermore, we estimate negative binomial regression models to combine pedestrian and automobile exposure with roadway characteristics and spatial/land use information. The models show that high exposure, incomplete sidewalks and high crosswalk density are associated with greater observed and perceived pedestrian crash-risk. Additionally, we found that people perceive a lower risk near university libraries, stadiums, and academic buildings, despite the occurrence of crashes.     

一种基于改进的博客观点检索算法研究

近年来博客逐渐成为一种新的主流媒体及网络形式,已成为人们获取信息的重要渠道。通过分析博客的相关功能,提出一种基于博客的观点检索方法,并且设计了一种基于负规则的极性检测算法,以提高极性检测部分的性能。通过相关实验数据验证,结果证明了提出的方法的有效性,该改进算法能够显著提高系统的MAP值。     

The effects of axial tension on the hogging-moment regions of composite beams

Structural parts commonly comprised of composite members such as bridge approaches, inclined parking ramps and stadium beams, can be subjected to a combination of high axial loads and bending moments. Steel-concrete composite construction is a popular solution for these types of structures due to the numerous advantages that they offer. Although, current design codes (e.g. Eurocode 4, American code AISC, Australian codes AS2327 and AS5100) provide rules for the design of composite columns subjected to flexure and axial load, however the design of composite beams, which are asymmetric in nature under the combined effects of tension and bending, is not yet fully addressed. This paper investigates the ultimate strength of composite beams under the combined effects of axial tension and negative (hogging) bending moment. An experimental programme carried out in the laboratory of the University of Western Sydney comprised of a total of six specimens representing composite beams and subjected to various levels of axial tension and bending moment. Ultimate failure modes were identified and the resulting interaction diagrams were compared to the results of sectional rigid plastic analysis. Following the tests, three-dimensional finite element models were employed using the ABAQUS finite element software to further investigate the nonlinear behaviour of the composite beams and extend the experimental observations by studying the effects of parameters such as the span length and the effect of partial shear connection. Finally, simple design rules and formulae are proposed for use in engineering practice.     

Contributory factors to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong

Efficient geometric design and signal timing not only improve operational performance at signalized intersections by expanding capacity and reducing traffic delays, but also result in an appreciable reduction in traffic conflicts, and thus better road safety. Information on the incidence of crashes, traffic flow, geometric design, road environment, and traffic control at 262 signalized intersections in Hong Kong during 2002 and 2003 are incorporated into a crash prediction model. Poisson regression and negative binomial regression are used to quantify the influence of possible contributory factors on the incidence of killed and severe injury (KSI) crashes and slight injury crashes, respectively, while possible interventions by traffic flow are controlled. The results for the incidence of slight injury crashes reveal that the road environment, degree of curvature, and presence of tram stops are significant factors, and that traffic volume has a diminishing effect on the crash risk. The presence of tram stops, number of pedestrian streams, road environment, proportion of commercial vehicles, average lane width, and degree of curvature increase the risk of KSI crashes, but the effect of traffic volume is negligible.