城市需水的智能预测方法研究

选取对城市用水影响较大的因素作为预测指标,通过HP滤波分析其指标及用水量的趋势成分及波动成分。应用多元线性回归法对趋势性成分进行模拟,应用模糊神经网络对波动性成分进行网络训练,以获得城市需水的总预测值。以大连市1980~2000年用水及其相关因子为例建模,以2001~2007年指标对模型进行检验,预测了大连市2010、2020年的需水值,为城市水资源规划提供一定的理论支持。     

洪水位变化对岸滩稳定性的影响

为了较全面地了解洪水涨落对岸滩崩塌的影响,本文通过对洪水期岸滩受力分析,结合岸滩土体性质和洪水浸泡岸滩特点,给出洪水期岸滩稳定系数;进而分析了洪水降落期岸滩稳定性变化,指出洪水骤降时,长期洪水浸泡后黏土岸滩稳定系数将会大幅度减小;在洪水缓慢降落时,黏性岸滩稳定性减小,但减小幅度小于骤降的情况。通过分析对比洪水上涨、洪水浸泡和洪水降落等不同过程的稳定性,指出洪水迅速上涨期岸滩稳定性最好,依次为洪水缓慢上涨期、洪水浸泡期和洪水缓慢下降期,洪水骤降期岸滩稳定性最差。     

南水北调中线工程几个技术问题的解决与思考

根据南水北调中线一期工程建设过程中的科技攻关,本文重点介绍了长距离自流输水线路输水型式选择、施工测量控制、混凝土重力坝再加高和软基中承受内水压力的水工隧洞设计施工中的几个关键技术问题,系统阐述了上述关键技术问题的解决思路和作者的再思考。     

深圳河湾水质数值模拟研究

基于EFDC模型和WASP模型建立了深圳河湾水动力和水质模型,采用2011年实测数据对模型进行率定和验证,结果表明,计算值与实测值吻合较好,丰枯季高低潮位平均误差小于0.20 m,DO、BOD5平均误差小于20%,TN、TP和Chl a(叶绿素a)平均误差小于30%。在此基础上进行案例研究,研究结果表明,氮、磷营养盐负荷削减80%对藻类生长的影响不明显;削减95%负荷时,Chl a浓度下降40%。     

Adaptive water management in Israel: structure and policy options

Difficulties in integrating technical, economic and institutional factors present a major gap in analytical capacity to guide water policy. This article presents an integrated framework to support water policy and guide water management choices, with application to Israel. That framework rests on the theory of economic policy originally developed by Tinbergen. It sees national water challenges as consisting of external factors, constraints, policy instruments and targets. The need for a modern implementation of the theory of economic policy is motivated by emerging environmental requirements, scarce water, growing demands for domestic use, and ongoing needs to implement existing and potential peace agreements.     

Spatial Water Use efficiency Index towards resource sustainability: application in the island of Crete,Greece

This paper introduces a new index to test water resource sustainability in regions where groundwater is the main source of water supply. The Spatial Water Use efficiency Index (SWUI) is a geographical information system (GIS) environment index which expresses the ratio of potential available water volume (groundwater recharge minus water needs) to the respective water needs. Its low and/or negative values indicate water stress. SWUI is applied in the island of Crete, Greece, where water needs are mainly covered by groundwater abstractions. The annual water mass balance is estimated using the RIBASIM (River Basin Simulation) model. The total freshwater needs in the Cretan region reach 535 hm³ annually according to the model's simulation. SWUI with values ranging from ? 0.8 to 214.3 has proved to be an important visual tool towards depicting the low efficiency of the east part of the island to cover water demand and a useful decision-making tool in the sustainability evaluation of groundwater aquifers.     

Food-water security and virtual water trade in the Middle East and North Africa

The purpose of this study is to analyze the political economy of food-water security in the water-scarce Middle East and North Africa region. The study deploys the lens of virtual water trade to determine how the region's economies have met their rising food-water requirements over the past three decades. It is shown that the region's water and food security currently depend to a considerable extent on water from outside the region, ‘embedded’ in food imports and accessed through trade. The analysis includes blue (surface and groundwater) and green water resources.     

辽宁省水利保障能力评价模型研究

为了研究辽宁省水利建设能否保障该省区域经济社会可持续和谐发展,以辽宁省第一次全国水利普查成果为依托,建立一套水利保障能力评价指标体系,利用模糊聚类综合评判模型和主客观赋权方法,对辽宁省各地市水利保障能力进行排序。评价结果表明,辽宁省各地市水利发展很不平衡,需要因地制宜,科学调整发展战略。     

带初始损伤混凝土的动态抗压性能研究

对65个直径为68 mm的混凝土圆柱体试件进行试验分析,系统研究了不同初始损伤程度的混凝土试件在冲击荷载作用下的动态抗压特性。通过对混凝土试件预加不同的静态荷载,从而在试件内产生不同程度的初始损伤;利用SHPB设备进行不同速率下的冲击试验,研究初始损伤程度对混凝土动态抗压强度、应力应变关系以及破坏模式的影响。试验结果表明,初始损伤对混凝土动态抗压强度产生重要影响,其影响程度与混凝土试件的初始损伤程度密切相关,损伤程度在阈值以下时对混凝土的动态抗压强度影响较小,超过阈值时影响显著;随应变率增加,带损伤混凝土的动态抗压强度显著提高;含水率的增加降低了带初始损伤混凝土动态抗压性能。基于试验结果,提出了综合考虑初始损伤程度影响和应变速率效应的抗压强度预测模型。     

全防水复合衬砌隧洞结构设计

本文介绍了一种有压输水隧洞复合衬砌结构与高密度聚乙烯(HDPE)自粘胶膜防水卷材结合技术,即:采用自粘型防水卷材作为主要防水层,配以混凝土自防水的复合衬砌防水体系。该技术适用于具有防水要求的双层衬砌结构输水隧洞。采用这种双层衬砌防水技术,可以将防水层从以往的径向防渗增强为径向、轴向、环向防渗,解决了输水隧洞因为外衬或内衬局部渗水而导致衬砌间窜水的现象,增加了结构耐久性。这种结构便于运行期间进行检修、排查渗漏点。该技术已成功地在北京市南水北调配套工程东干渠工程中大规模应用。