自动气象站现场校准方法改进及常见问题处理

通过对自动气象站现场校准方法的改进,有效地简化了校准操作流程,缩短了校准时间,且尽可能保证观测数据的连续性。文章介绍了现场校准中常见问题及其解决办法,以便校准工作人员快速判断设备故障,并快捷、及时、有效的予以排除,大大提高了工作效率。     

714S天气雷达主控分机常见故障检查

714S天气雷达是一种固定式的S波段气象专用雷达。本文主要介绍了其主控分机系统,重点阐述了系统的智能故障检测功能,并对主控分机系统常见故障的处理进行了详细的解析,同时指出了检查主控分机故障时的注意事项。     

水灾后加密自动气象站的维护

笔者根据多年的实际工作经验,结合2010年吉林省吉林市发生的重大洪涝灾害之后对区域加密自动气象站进行维护的体会,提出了在水灾之后加密自动气象站维护的方法。     

Exploring a Bayesian hierarchical approach for developing safety performance functions for a mountainous freeway

While rural freeways generally have lower crash rates, interactions between driver behavior, traffic and geometric characteristics, and adverse weather conditions may increase the crash risk along some freeway sections. This paper examines the safety effects of roadway geometrics on crash occurrence along a freeway section that features mountainous terrain and adverse weather. Starting from preliminary exploration using Poisson models, Bayesian hierarchical models with spatial and random effects were developed to efficiently model the crash frequencies on road segments on the 20-mile freeway section of study. Crash data for 6 years (2000–2005), roadway geometry, traffic characteristics and weather information in addition to the effect of steep slopes and adverse weather of snow and dry seasons, were used in the investigation. Estimation of the model coefficients indicates that roadway geometry is significantly associated with crash risk; segments with steep downgrades were found to drastically increase the crash risk. Moreover, this crash risk could be significantly increased during snow season compared to dry season as a confounding effect between grades and pavement condition. Moreover, sites with higher degree of curvature, wider medians and an increase of the number of lanes appear to be associated with lower crash rate. Finally, a Bayesian ranking technique was implemented to rank the hazard levels of the roadway segments; the results confirmed that segments with steep downgrades are more crash prone along the study section.     

DYYZⅡ自动气象站故障判断和故障原因分析方法

DYYZⅡ自动气象站是地面气象要素有线自动化监测设备．设备投入气象台站运行以来,出现过一些故障现象。本文根据本人的学习体会和工作经验向大家介绍自动气象站故障判断和故障原因分析方法.     

适用于GRAPES数值天气预报软件的ILU预条件子

探讨了一种适用于我国自主研发的数值天气预报模式软件GRAPES的不完全LU(ILU)分解预条件子.针对GRAPES模式所特有的具有对角优势结构的赫姆霍兹方程系数矩阵,提出了一种有效的ILU分解方案,并将分解得到的预条件子应用到模式核心的动力积分计算迭代算法中,从而达到加速算法收敛,提高模式软件整体性能的目的.     

一种改进自动气象站信号模拟器温度通道的方法

针对现有自动气象站信号模拟器温度通道存在误差大、难以兼容不同型号采集器的问题,分析了CAWS600、ZQZ系列自动气象站采集器的测温原理,利用不同型号的采集器对JJQ1型信号模拟器的温度通道进行了测试,指出了测试数据存在抖动的原因,提出基于采集器的四线制测温原理,以定制的高精度、极低温漂电阻为核心,利用信号继电器构造四线制网络,辅以软件补偿,能适应不同型号的采集器的温度通道改进方法。最后,分别利用采集器和高精度万用表对改进的温度通道进行了测试,数据表明模拟的温度最大误差为±0.03℃,对应电阻的最大误差为±12 mΩ,满足行业标准QX/T 346—2016《自动气象站信号模拟器》,为自动气象站信号模拟器的优化提供了参考。     

Evaluation of Tianji and ECMWF high-resolution precipitation forecasts for extreme rainfall event in Henan in July 2021

The extreme rainfall event of July 17 to 22, 2021 in Henan Province, China, led to severe urban waterlogging and flood disasters. This study investigated the performance of high-resolution weather forecasts in predicting this extreme event and the feasibility of weather forecast-based hydrological forecasts. To achieve this goal, high-resolution precipitation forecasts from the Tianji weather system and the forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were evaluated with the spatial verification metrics of structure, amplitude, and location. The results showed that Tianji weather forecasts accurately predicted the amplitude of 12-h accumulated precipitation with a lead time of 12 h. The location and structure of the rainfall areas in Tianji forecasts were closer to the observations than ECMWF forecasts. Tianji hourly precipitation forecasts were also more accurate than ECMWF hourly forecasts, especially at lead times shorter than 8 h. The precipitation forecasts were used as the inputs to a hydrological model to evaluate their hydrological applications. The results showed that the runoff forecasts driven by Tianji weather forecasts could effectively predict the extreme flood event. The runoff forecasts driven by Tianji forecasts were more accurate than those driven by ECMWF forecasts in terms of amplitude and location. This study demonstrates that high-resolution weather forecasts and corresponding hydrological forecasts can provide valuable information in advance for disaster warnings and leave time for people to act on the event. The results encourage further hydrological applications of high-resolution weather forecasts, such as Tianji weather forecasts, in the future.     

计及台风灾害全过程模拟的配电网差异化加固规划韧性提升方法

台风会对配电网系统造成严重影响,制定架空线路的防风加固规划方案至关重要。为提高配电网抵御自然灾害的韧性,提出一种计及台风灾害全过程模拟的配电网差异化加固规划韧性提升方法,通过模拟台风登陆至消亡时刻全过程实时风况信息,对各线路实施差异化加固。首先,利用狄利克雷过程混合模型(dirichlet process mixture model, DPMM)聚类算法提取典型台风登陆场景,结合风暴轨迹模型和Batts风场模型模拟实时台风移动路径和台风风场,计算配电网线路实时故障概率。然后,结合台风场景模拟结果和不同设计风速标准下的差异化的架空线路故障率,建立以多等级线路加固年投资成本、台风过境过程中失负荷成本、停电损失和维修成本最小为目标的双层随机规划模型,并利用Benders分解算法进行求解。最后,以改进IEEE33节点系统为例,对所提方法有效性进行了验证。     

天气预报有限差分格点模式并行计算研究

有限差分格点模式是目前广泛采用的中尺度数值天气预报模式之一。本文分析了有限差分格点模式典型代表MM5并行计算的特点,对其多重网格嵌套、数据划分、通信、优化等做了深入研究,最后给出了MM5模式在银河巨型计算机上的测试结果。