Digital Yellow River Model

Soil erosion is one of the key concerns in land use management for the Loess Plateau of the Yellow River, where serious soil loss is the root cause of environmental and ecological degradation of the basin. In this paper, a physically-based, distributed-parameter, and continuous erosion prediction model at the river basin scale was developed with the aim of assisting in developing better land use management strategies. The framework, the major supporting techniques, and the typical erosion processes are described. The physical processes of sediment yield and transport in the Loess Plateau are divided into three sub-processes, including the runoff and sediment yield on hillslopes, gravitational erosion in gullies, and hyperconcentrated flow routing in channels. For each sub-process, a physically-based simulation model was developed and embedded into the whole model system. The model system was applied to simulate the runoff and sediment yield in several typical years in the coarse sediment source area of the Loess Plateau, and the simulated results were in reasonably good agreement with the measured values.     

Optimizing investment levels for energy conservation: Individual versus social perspective and the role of uncertainty

The decision to invest in energy conservation must be made in the face of uncertainty: future energy prices and the magnitude of energy savings are uncertain. Since once does not know the optimal investment level in advance, one will incur cost penalties due to misoptimization. To analyse the cost penalties it is convenient to focus on the ratio of the life cycle costs that one pays and the life cycle costs one would have paid with an optimal investment level. Two models are used to evaluate this ratio: a model for conductive heat flow through a layer of insulation, and an exponential curve fit to a large number of residential energy conservation cost data. Plotting the life cycle cost ratio versus the ration of actual and guessed energy expenditures shows the effect both of price uncertainties and of uncertainties in the performance of conservation measures. The graph can also be used to evaluate the cost to society due to the mismatch between individual and social perspectives. The curve turns out to have a broad optimum, and penalties due to misoptimization are fairly small in most cases. With these models one can also calculate the long-term price elasticity of energy demand for rational consumers. It turns out to be -0.5 in the insulation model and -1.0 in the exponential model.     

非线性FCA模型在流域水资源冲突风险评价中的应用

介绍模糊矩阵合成算子的性质及其在评价中的实际意义。建立了流域水资源冲突风险评价的指标体系。在改进层次分析法的基础上,用非线性模糊综合评价模型对资水流域水资源冲突风险进行了评价。评价结果表明,所建模型对于涉及水量、水质、生态与体制等多因子的流域水资源冲突风险评价具有良好的适用性,可反映不同指标对评价结果的突出影响,弥补了线性加权模糊综合评价模型的不足,使评价结果更可靠。该模型可在不同流域不同时期和不同条件下的水资源冲突风险综合评价中推广应用。     

Climate-related electricity demand-side management in oil-exporting countries—the case of the United Arab Emirates

The oil crisis of the 1970s has increased the concern about the continuity of oil imports flow to major oil-importing developed countries. Numerous policy measures including electricity demand-side management (DSM) programs have been adopted in such countries. These measures aim at reducing the growing need for electricity power that increases the dependency on imported foreign oil and damages the environment. On the other hand, the perception that energy can be obtained at very low cost in oil-rich countries led to less attention being paid to the potential of DSM policies in these countries. This paper discusses such potential using the case of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Since air conditioning is a major source of electric energy consumption, the relationship between climate conditions and electric energy consumption is considered. An electricity demand model is constructed using time series techniques. The fitted model seems to represent these relationships rather well. Forecasts for electricity consumption using the estimated model indicate that a small reduction in cooling degrees requirement might induce a significant reduction in electric energy demand. Hence, a DSM program is proposed with policy actions to include, among others, measures to reduce cooling degrees requirement.     

Dangerous ideas: Five beliefs that propel groups toward conflict.

The toll in death, suffering, and displacement caused by conflicts engaging groups defined by ethnicity, nationality, religion, or other social identities has reached staggering proportions over the past decade. With expertise in research and intervention, psychologists have critical contributions to make to more fully understanding and more effectively confronting this distressing global phenomenon. The authors focus on the parallels between the core beliefs of individuals and the collective worldviews of groups that may operate to trigger or constrain violent struggles. On the basis of a review of relevant literatures, 5 belief domains--superiority, injustice, vulnerability, distrust, and helplessness--are identified as particularly important for further study. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Non-participants in utility energy conservation programmes

Utility conservation programmes are designed to benefit both participants and non-participants. This article outlines the issues involved in designing conservation programmes for utilities and determining the appropriate amount of incentives that can be provided to participants without harming non-participants. More importantly, the article discusses the issue of access to the programmes by utility customers. It concludes that it is the existing restrictions to participation, and not the level of compensation, that are of greatest concern to non-participants. A number of utility programmes designed to eliminate the problem of non-participation are reviewed.     

太平溪小流域水土保持蓄水减沙效益初步研究

太平溪小流域地处三峡库乎宜昌县西部，距三峡坝５ｋｍ的长江西陵峡北岸，治理前水土流失严重，大量坡面商沙以沟道推移直接进入三峡库区。     

A new DSmT combination rule in open frame of discernment and its application

A new combination rule based on Dezert-Smarandache theory (DSmT) is proposed to deal with the conflict evidence resulting from the non-exhaustivity of the discernment frame. A two-dimensional measure factor in Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) is extended to DSmT to judge the conflict degree between evidence. The original DSmT combination rule or new DSmT combination rule can be selected for fusion according to this degree. Finally, some examples in simultaneous fault diagnosis of motor rotor are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed combination rule.     

城市水土保持区划及功能性评价研究——以宜昌市为例

目前全国地级市水土保持区划工作滞后,宜昌市作为湖北省域副中心城市,城市水土流失严重。为突出地方特色、因地制宜地指导地方水土保持区划工作的落地实施,以宜昌市为例,在国家、省级水土保持区划成果的基础上,紧密结合宜昌市地方特点,逐步进行细化,形成宜昌市水土保持四级区划,并对区划成果进行基本功能分析评价。 宜昌市水土保持区划使用四级分区体系,前三级区划沿用国家水土保持区划中一级、二级、三级分区范围;四级区被分为6个水土保持片区:沿江平原丘陵农田防护区、香溪河山地生态维护区、三峡库区山地丘陵保土区、沮漳河山地丘陵保土区、清江山地水源涵养保土区以及中心城区人居环境维护区。全市共涉及5个水土保持基本功能,分别为农田防护、生态维护、土壤保持、水源涵养和人居环境维护。地级市水土保持区划分区既要在国家、省级水土保持区划基础上进行,同时还需突出地方特点,因地制宜。宜昌市水土流失治理应坚持预防为主,保护水源,并加强水土保持重点监管。     

水源涵养内涵及估算方法综述

水源涵养和生态系统过程与人类生产生活紧密相关,深入研究水源涵养对维持生态系统健康和人类社会可持续发展至关重要,对促进人与水和谐共生具有指导意义。随着对水源涵养研究与应用的深入,水源涵养内涵逐渐丰富,评估方法愈加多样,但以往的研究中水源涵养定义模糊,缺乏对各种评估方法的综合性对比分析,因此急需明确界定水源涵养内涵,分析各种估算方法的适用性。采用文献分析法系统梳理水源涵养研究历程,将其划分为认识与萌芽期、理论发展期、定量计算和模型综合评估等4个阶段;从定义、水量与功能等3个方面明确界定水源涵养内涵,从原理、时空尺度、适用范围及优缺点方面对已有水源涵养量估算方法进行对比和分析,并展望水源涵养研究的未来发展方向。