项目投资风险管理体系模型研究

首先分析了项目投资管理、风险管理和信息管理的作用、内容和程序,得出了三者的内在关系;其次提出包括风险管理战略、风险管理程序、风险管理组织、风险管理方法、风险管理制度和风险管理文化的项目投资风险管理体系,分析了其构成要素的功能及设置方案;最后依据构成要素间的逻辑关系构建了项目投资全面风险管理模型.     

供电企业信息作业风险评估研究

在深入研究事故致因理论、事故风险管理和供电企业生产作业风险管理的基础上,提出了供电企业信息作业风险评估的模型和方法。有助于供电企业建立一套基于风险管理的信息作业指导书,为信息运维人员提供安全作业操作规范,减少安全事故的发生。     

杨房沟水电站地下洞室关键岩石力学问题及工程对策研究

杨房沟水电站地下洞室群规模宏大、地质条件复杂,施工期围岩稳定问题突出。为解决洞室开挖过程中普遍揭露的脆性岩体高应力破坏、缓倾结构面导致的顶拱变形破坏、喷层开裂脱落等岩石力学问题,结合施工地质、监测成果和数值模拟开展动态反馈分析,对洞群围岩稳定性进行了系统地分析和预测。结果表明,在洞室群开挖过程中,上游侧拱肩位置存在应力集中,是导致脆性硬岩发生片帮破坏的主要原因,而及时、有效的系统支护对抑制围岩应力型破坏至关重要;缓倾结构面对顶拱围岩变形与稳定起着控制性作用,主要表现为断层下盘岩体坍塌破坏和深层变形问题;在中高地应力条件下,受不利地质构造和施工质量等因素控制,洞室顶拱混凝土喷层容易发生开裂、脱落问题。通过开展施工期围岩监测反馈分析,不仅能够解释围岩变形破坏机制,而且能够为支护设计优化和信息化施工提供科学依据。     

Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers in Surface Sediment from Songhua River Basin, Northeast of China

Sixty sediment samples were collected from the main Songhua River in three years. Twelve polybrominated diphenyl ether ( PBDE) congeners ( BDE17, 28, 47, 66, 99, 100, 153, 154, 138, 183, and BDE?209) w...     

Risk reduction in Sechahun iron ore deposit by geological boundary modification using multiple indicator Kriging

Uncertainty on the geological contacts and the block volumes of the models along boundaries is often a major part of the global uncertainty of reserve estimation.This work introduces a geostatistical technique that has been developed and tested in an iron ore deposit at Bafq mining district,in central Iran,and that,based on a probability criterion,helps to objectively model the geometry of this iron ore deposit.The main problem in reserve estimation of this ore body is its geometrical modeling and uncertainty in geological boundaries.This work deals with the geostatistical method of multiple indicator kriging,which is used to determine the real boundaries of ore body in different categories.This approach has potential to improve project performance and decrease operational risk.For this purpose,the ore body is separated into two categories including rich iron zone （w（Fe）〉45%） and poor iron zone （20%〈w（Fe）〈45%）.It significantly benefits to decrease the risk of reserve evaluation in the deposit.This case study also highlights the value of multiple indicator kriging as a tool for estimates the position of grade boundaries within the deposit.Comparison of the resultant probability maps with the real ore/waste contacts on the extracted levels shows that the first indicator model could separate the whole ore body （poor plus rich） from the waste zone by probability of more than 0.35,which concludes the total reserve of 53 million tons.The second indicator model applied to separate the rich and poor domains and the results show that the blocks with the estimated probability of equal to or more than 0.4 lay within the rich ore zone consisting of 15.8 million tons reserve.     

四氢萘催化裂化研究进展

加氢处理油中含有一定量的环烷基单环芳烃,研究四氢萘催化裂化有利于加强对更多环数环烷基单环芳烃催化裂化的认识。综述了四氢萘催化裂化过程的反应机理,认为四氢萘主要遵循单分子裂化机理;从反应活化能、扩散、吸附等动力学角度对四氢萘裂解行为进行了解释;催化剂适宜的孔径和BrØnsted酸强度有利于四氢萘开环;随着反应温度升高、剂/油质量比增大、质量空速减小,四氢萘反应活性增强,同时氢转移反应愈发明显。适宜的催化剂孔径和Brnsted酸强度、反应温度、剂/油质量比以及质量空速有利于四氢萘裂化生成低碳烯烃。     

高温预析出对Al-Zn-Mg-Cu铝合金显微组织、强度和应力腐蚀抗力的影响

通过改变固溶条件 ,对Al Zn Mg Cu高强铝合金采用先高温后低温的两步固溶处理 (高温预析出 )来改善晶内和晶界的析出状态 ,研究了高温预析出对Al Zn Mg Cu铝合金的金相组织、强度和应力腐蚀性能的影响。结果表明 ,4 6 5℃高温预析出在保持较高强度和塑性的同时 ,可以改善合金的抗应力腐蚀性能     

Microcrack generation and its healing in the oxide scale formed on Fe-Cr alloys

Fe -base alloys containing 5, 10, and 20 wt. % Cr were oxidized in a stream of O₂ at 750 and 900°C up to 264 hr. A sulfur decoration method was applied to detect the cracks generated in the scale during oxidation. This method revealed frequent crack generation and its healing in the scale. In the case of low-Cr alloys, the cracks are filled up with newly formed Fe-rich oxide but may be regenerated during further oxidation. Cracks are generated in the scale on an Fe-20Cr alloy also, although this alloy is not so severely attacked because of rapid healing.     

Behavioural responses to risk on remote outcomes

Computer mediation of communication allows interaction with events remote in space or time. However, the uptake and use of videotechnology requires an understanding of its effects upon willingness to take risks. To understand how responses to remote events are influenced by computer mediation, the present study compared responses to collocated outcomes with those conveyed over a videolink or as pre-recordings. Willingness to risk on an outcome was quantified using wagering behaviour during a simulated game of roulette: measuring preferred outcome format, levels of risk sought, and times required to make decisions. Participants tended to be more confident of winning and preferred the collocated version of roulette. Participants took greater risks with pre-recorded video outcomes and tended to spend more time locating bets. For videolinked outcomes, participants were more cautious, hedging their bets, and taking more time deliberating the odds. Although the amounts wagered did not change, a potential predictability in pre-recordings appears to encourage risk taking, while the reduced presence inherent in real-time videolinks engenders caution.     

Computation of optimum reliability acceptance sampling plans in presence of hybrid censoring

The decision regarding acceptance or rejection of a lot of products may be considered through variables acceptance sampling plans based on suitable quality characteristics. A variables sampling plan to determine the acceptability of a lot of products based on the lifetime of the products is called reliability acceptance sampling plan (RASP). This work considers the determination of optimum RASP under cost constraint in the framework of hybrid censoring. Weibull lifetime models are considered for illustrations; however, the proposed methodology can be easily extended to any location-scale family of distributions. The proposed method is based on asymptotic results of the estimators of parameters of lifetime distribution. Hence, a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted in order to show that the sampling plans meet the specified risks for finite sample size.