Personality and the predisposition to engage in risky or problem behaviors during adolescence.

Longitudinal data from a representative sample of 1,978 Black and White adolescents were used to examine the role of personality in multiple risk or problem behaviors. Results indicate that covariation among diverse behaviors (educational underachievement, delinquent behavior, substance use, sexual behavior) can be adequately modeled by a single higher order factor, and that impulsivity and avoidance coping serve as generalized risk factors for involvement in these behaviors. Whereas none of the personality variables examined explained change in problem behaviors once established, avoidance coping prospectively predicted involvement among a subgroup of adolescents with little or no prior involvement. Results suggest that dysfunctional styles of regulating emotions and emotionally driven behaviors are core features of risky or problem behaviors during adolescence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Risk Factors for Course of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Among Vietnam Veterans: A 14-Year Follow-Up of American Legionnaires.

Risk factors affecting the course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are poorly understood. As part of a larger study on characterizing exposure to herbicides in Vietnam, the authors investigated this issue in a random sample of 1,377 American Legionnaires who had served in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam War and were followed over a 14-year period. High combat exposure, perceived negative community attitudes at homecoming, minority race, depression symptoms at Time 1, and more anger at Time 1 predicted a more chronic course. Community involvement at Time 1 was protective and associated with decreased risk at Time 2. Discomfort in disclosing Vietnam experiences was associated with an increased risk for developing PTSD but did not predict its course. Combat exposure predicted PTSD course more strongly than any other risk factor. Findings suggest recovery from PTSD is significantly influenced by perceived social support. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A Profile of Psychologists' Views of Critical Risk Factors for Completed Suicide in Older Adults.

The ability to accurately and reliably predict whether an older adult will commit suicide has eluded clinicians and researchers. A random national sample of psychologists who work with older adults was surveyed regarding their perception of 36 risk factors for completed suicide and indirect self-destructive behavior in older adults. This study produced a profile of psychologists' assessment and treatment practices when working with suicidal older adults. Determining what psychologists consider to be the most salient risk factors for completed suicide is important in identifying a minimum standard that clinicians should follow when assessing older adults. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Coupling GIS with Hydrologic and Hydraulic Flood Modelling

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been recognised as a powerful means to integrate and analyse data from various sources in the context of comprehensive floodplain management. As part of this comprehensive approach to floodplain management, it is very important to be able to predict the consequences of different scenarios in terms of flooded areas and associated risk. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling plays a crucial role and there is much to gain in incorporating these modelling capabilities in GIS. This is still a rather complex task and research is being done on the full integration of these models. Interfacing between these models and GIS may be a very efficient way of overcoming the difficulties and getting very good results in terms of engineering practice. This paper presents results based on the use of Intergraph GIS coupled with Idrisi GIS. Using these two systems substantially increased the flexibility of using GIS as a tool for flood studies. A lumped (XSRAIN) and a distributed (OMEGA) hydrologic models were used to simulate flood hydrographs. The well known HEC-2 Hydraulic model was used to compute flooded areas. These models were applied in the Livramento catchment with very good results. The computation of flooded areas for different flood scenarios, and its representation in GIS, can be used in the assessment of affected property and associated damages. This is a very useful GIS-based approach to floodplain management.     

鄱阳湖流域水土保持与防洪治涝

鄱阳湖流域水土流失加剧了洪涝灾害。治理水土流失能增强山丘地涵养水源的能力,削洪减沙,减少库容损失,降低河床,具有明显的防洪效益。进行流域防洪规划时,应将防治水土流失与防洪治涝结合起来,因地制宣,综合治理。     

黄河中游多沙粗沙区水沙控制途径的探讨

根据黄河中游多沙粗区暴雨洪水及产流产沙特点，提出了为控制水沙危害，黄河中游治理应分两步走的战略。第一步解决近期水沙控制和耕地问题，主要措施是建设淤地坝和骨干坝。研究表明，在现状坝地，梯田条件下，为满足粮食生产需要，每平方公里需新增坝地３．１８ｈａ，且能港口控制水沙的要求。第二步是进行坡面治理，改善生态环境，以达到根治水沙的目的。     

转制科研单位建立和完善内部会计控制的探讨

针对目前大多数科研单位在内部会计控制中存在的问题,根据财政部颁布的《内部会计控制规范一基本规范》,探讨了科研单位在转制过程中应如何建立和完善内部会计控制制度,以达到防范经营风险,保护资产安全、完整,确保经营管理目标和政策有效实施.     

Non-parametric empirical Bayes procedure

In this paper we introduce an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating an unknown parameter, say θ. This procedure gives the empirical Bayes estimator for θ and its associated minimum posterior risk in closed forms without estimating the unknown prior density function of θ. In such procedure the posterior probability density function of θ is not required. A sufficient statistic for θ with conditional probability density function in the one parameter exponential family is required. Instead of estimating the unknown prior density function, the marginal density function of the sufficient statistic must be estimated. As special cases the empirical Bayes estimators and their respective minimum posterior risks of the failure rate for the exponential distribution, the unknown scale parameters of Weibull and gamma distributions are obtained in simple forms as special cases. Numerical results and a simulation study are introduced to (i) investigate how the number of available past experiments and the sample size of each influence the accuracy of the empirical Bayes estimator, (ii) make a comparison between the presented procedure and the Bayes procedure when the prior probability density function of the parameter θ is gamma.     

增加黄金储备规避外汇风险

近几年，我国外汇储备逐年增加，而美元汇率偏弱，使我国承担很大的外汇风险。为了规避外汇风险，应增加黄金储备。文中提出了我国增加黄金储备总量的理由以及增加黄金储备的途径。这些建议具有可操作性，可以提供给有关部门参考。