一种基于网络安全风险评估的入侵检测方法

针对传统的入侵检测系统存在报警数量大、误报率高等缺陷,提出了一种基于网络安全风险评估的入侵检测方法,该方法基于入侵检测结果,引入抗体浓度随入侵强度动态变化这一人工免疫理论的最新研究成果进行网络安全风险的计算,然后根据当前网络面临的实时安全风险动态设置报警策略。实验结果表明,该方法能够实时、定量地计算主机和网络所面临的风险,并极大地降低报警数量和误报率。     

空中交通预警与防撞系统(TCAS)风险及对策研究

空中交通预警与防撞系统TCAS对飞行安全非常重要,它能够通过对附近的飞机进行冲突检测,预测未来可能发生的危险,提示飞行员避免危险,帮助机组维持与其他飞机之间的空中交通安全间隔;但TCAS本身依然存在风险;在此对TCAS进行了半物理仿真测试,包括数字样机开发测试、物理样机开发测试、虚拟试飞以及数据统计分析等,对其各项功能进行测试与验证;在参阅众多相关文献的基础上,结合所做的研究工作,讨论了TCAS的主要风险,并针对这些风险,提出TCAS在设计、测试、操作方面需要改进的地方,从各方面完善TCAS,降低其风险,进一步保障飞行安全。     

Human error identification in human reliability assessment. Part 2: Detailed comparison of techniques

This is the second part of a two-part review of human error identification (HEI) approaches in human reliability assessment (HRA). Part 1 reviewed the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) context in which HRA occurs, and then detailed 12 HEI techniques which have evolved in the field of HRA. Part 2 attempts to compare the way these techniques perform against a range of criteria relevant to HEI theoretical and empirical validity, and practical usefulness in applied HRA. It is hoped that these comparisons will help assessors in the selection of techniques for practical applications. The comparisons also point to research and development needs in the area of applied HEI.     

西江流域压咸风险调度及其时空传递规律研究

枯水期珠江河口咸潮情势日益加重,径流不确定加剧了压咸风险,严重威胁沿线的供水安全。本文基于概率密度分布描述径流不确定性,构建了单源风险调度基本框架。以西江流域五座水库为研究对象,量化了预报误差与压咸风险的响应关系;揭示了压咸风险的时空传递规律;将压咸风险划分为3个等级;确定出各级风险越级传递的临界阈值。研究表明：随预报误差的增大,压咸风险提前且持续天数增加、风险率增大;压咸风险呈逐时段累积和从上游向下游、从支流向干流的时空传递规律;当预报误差超过±16%、±21%时,压咸风险从轻险越级至中险、中险越级至重险。研究成果对于西江流域压咸风险的调控和粤港澳大湾区的供水安全具有重要的应用价值。     

Well-Known and Novel Serum Biomarkers for Risk Stratification of Patients with Non-ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy encompasses a wide spectrum of myocardial disorders, characterized by left ventricular dilatation with systolic impairment and increased risk of sudden cardiac death. In spite of all the therapeutic progress that has been made in recent years, dilated cardiomyopathy continues to be an important cause of cardiac transplant, being associated with an enormous cost burden for health care systems worldwide. Predicting the prognosis of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy is essential to individualize treatment. Late gadolinium enhancement-cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, microvolt T-wave alternans, and genetic testing have emerged as powerful tools in predicting sudden cardiac death occurrence and maximizing patient’s selection. Despite all these new diagnostic modalities, additional tests to complement or replace current tools are required for better risk stratification. Therefore, biomarkers are an easy and important tool that can help to detect patients at risk of adverse cardiovascular events. Additionally, identifying potential biomarkers involved in dilated cardiomyopathy can provide us important information regarding the diagnostic, prognostic, risk stratification, and response to treatment for these patients. Many potential biomarkers have been studied in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy, but only a few have been adopted in current practice. Therefore, the aim of our review is to provide the clinicians with an update on the well-known and novel biomarkers that can be useful for risk stratification of patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy.     

The Causes and Potential Injurious Effects of Elevated Serum Leptin Levels in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

Leptin is an adipokine that regulates appetite and body mass and has many other pleiotropic functions, including regulating kidney function. Increased evidence shows that chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with hyperleptinemia, but the reasons for this phenomenon are not fully understood. In this review, we focused on potential causes of hyperleptinemia in patients with CKD and the effects of elevated serum leptin levels on patient kidney function and cardiovascular risk. The available data indicate that the increased concentration of leptin in the blood of CKD patients may result from both decreased leptin elimination from the circulation by the kidneys (due to renal dysfunction) and increased leptin production by the adipose tissue. The overproduction of leptin by the adipose tissue could result from: (a) hyperinsulinemia; (b) chronic inflammation; and (c) significant lipid disturbances in CKD patients. Elevated leptin in CKD patients may further deteriorate kidney function and lead to increased cardiovascular risk.     

Effects of Berry Anthocyanins on Cognitive Performance,Vascular Function and Cardiometabolic Risk Markers: A Systematic Review of Randomized Placebo-Controlled Intervention Studies in Humans

Supplementation with anthocyanins, which are a type of flavonoids mainly found in various berries, is hypothesized to be a promising approach to lower the risk of developing cognitive decline. The aim of this systematic review was to provide a comprehensive overview of dietary intervention trials describing effects of berry anthocyanins on cognitive performance in humans, while also addressing potential underlying mechanisms. A total of 1197 articles were identified through a systematic search, and 49 studies reporting effects on cognitive performance (n = 18), vascular function (n = 22), or cardiometabolic risk markers (n = 32) were included. Significant improvements were observed on memory, while some of the studies also reported effects on attention and psychomotor speed or executive function. Vascular function markers such as brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation were also affected and consistent evidence was provided for the beneficial effects of berry anthocyanins on endothelial function. Finally, studies reported improvements in blood pressure, but effects on metabolic risk markers (e.g. carbohydrate and lipid metabolism) were less consistent. In conclusion, this review provides evidence for the beneficial effects of berry anthocyanins on cognitive performance as memory improved. Whether observed anthocyanin-induced improvements in vascular function and blood pressure underlie beneficial effects on cognitive performance warrants further study.     

实践工程总承包之体会

介绍了目前国际上广为采用的5种工程总承包方式以及水泥工业建设项目总包工程合同管理和索赔管理的内容与要求;分析了设计单位进行工程总承包的优势所在;探讨了工程总包实施中各类风险。     

Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set

This study aims to improve the general flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS based on α-cut level sets which can reduce the uncertainty inherent in even fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process. Since fuzzy TOPSIS leads to a crisp closeness for each alternative, it is frequently argued that fuzzy weights and fuzzy ratings should be in fuzzy relative closeness. Therefore, this study used a modified α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS to develop a spatial flood vulnerability approach for Han River in Korea, considering various uncertainties in weights derivation and crisp data aggregation. Two results from fuzzy TOPSIS and modified fuzzy TOPSIS were compared. Some regions which showed no or small ranking changes have their centro-symmetric distributions, while other regions whose rankings varied dynamically, have biased (anti-symmetric) distributions. It can be concluded that α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS produce more robust prioritization since more uncertainties can be considered. This method can be applied to robust spatial vulnerability or decision making in water resources management.     

聚合釜超压喷料火灾爆炸事故风险分析

分析了聚合釜因过程失控产生超压的原因，并采用TNT当量法定量分析了氯乙烯泄漏爆炸事故的危害，计算出了死亡、财产损失的具体范围，提出了预防此类事故的一般性措施。