滑坡灾害破坏损失综合评价模型及应用

滑坡灾害破坏损失评估是滑坡灾害风险评价的重要研究内容，但目前滑坡灾害破坏损失评价指标体系与模型还不够完善，为此提出了滑坡灾害破坏损失综合评价方法。该方法通过系统分析，建立了滑坡灾害破坏损失综合评价指标体系，在此基础上，运用模糊数学理论，建立了滑坡灾害破坏损失综合评价模型，并通过实例详细分析了滑坡灾害破坏损失综合评价方法的应用。     

General Liability Insurance Coverage for Mold Claims

Although humans and mold have coexisted for centuries, the effects of mold on health and property have recently received considerable attention. Members of the construction industry and commercial property owners are, with increasing frequency, finding themselves defending claims of property damage or personal injury due to indoor mold growth. These designers, builders, and property owners frequently turn to their general liability insurance carriers for defense and indemnification without having a full understanding of the protections afforded by their commercial general liability policies. This article provides an introduction to the typical coverages and exclusions applicable to mold related claims submitted for general liability coverage. This article also discusses maximizing the potential for coverage by notifying and cooperating with one’s insurer and provides guidance on the avoidance of indoor mold growth and claims. Questions concerning the meaning and effect of particular insurance policy provisions and the availability of additional or alternative coverages should be directed to one’s insurance professional or coverage attorney.     

燃气管道非稳态泄漏及扩散的模拟

为了得到准确可靠的燃气泄漏扩散规律及事故的危险范围,基于对燃气管道实际泄漏过程特点的分析,结合湍流扩散微分方程,分别建立了非稳态泄漏及扩散模型,并分析了其求解过程.以实例为基础,讨论并分析了泄漏相对孔径、气源切断时间、风速、扩散距离以及大气稳定度等对泄漏扩散浓度范围的影响.同时,针对泄漏扩散的中毒、火灾爆炸事故可能性危险范围给予了讨论和分析.研究结果将为控制和降低燃气泄漏事故的危害性提供理论参考.     

“4·20”芦山Ms7.0级地震次生山地灾害特征

北京时间2013年4月20日08时02分,在四川省雅安市芦山县发生7.0级大地震.大地震同时诱发大量滑坡、崩塌等同震次生山地灾害.据现场应急调查,地震次生山地灾害主要以中小规模崩塌灾害为主,根据灾害发生的地层岩性,分别归纳了砾岩地层崩塌、砂泥岩地层崩塌、灰岩直立地层崩塌、堆积层滑坡及滑坡碎屑流5个主要类型.在对典型灾害体灾害特征、破坏模式和影响因素进行初步分析的基础上,提出区域构造背景为“4·20”芦山地震次生灾害的主控因素.芦山地震次生灾害具有群发性、滞后性特点,在后地震时期降雨激发条件下可能产生严重泥石流滑坡等山地灾害.因此,后地震时期在极震区特别是集中安置区,山地灾害监测预警工作十分重要.     

公共建筑火灾隐患的定量研究

为确保火灾隐患认定的科学性和合理性,文章通过对各层次消防监督人员进行问卷调查,对火灾隐患整改通知书进行抽样分析,针对消防监督最广泛的对象之一的公共建筑,建立起火灾隐患定量模型,采用层次分析的方法,对公共建筑消防安全关联因子进行权重计算,以此对火灾隐患进行定量,并通过实例验证其可操作性。火灾隐患定量研究将有助于科学合理地认定火灾隐患,从而克服消防监督执法的随意性,提高火灾隐患整改的经济合理性。     

城市建(构)筑物拆除爆破重大危险源的辨识与控制

拆除爆破是种高风险、高危害性的行业,城市建(构)筑物爆破拆除的安全控制与管理非常重要。本文阐述了城市建(构)筑物拆除爆破重大危险源辨识的依据、方法和主要类型,并提出相应的控制原则、控制措施及程序。可为控制爆破拆除行业安全管理的系统化、规范化和程序化提供参考。     

遥感技术在安徽地质灾害发育规律与区划中的应用

概述了安徽境内地质灾害发育的主要规律，并根据我省地质灾害发生发展规律总结出：1．地域性规律；2．相关性规律；3．群发性规律；4．受控于工程经济活动规律，以及全省地质灾害区划，将我省由北向南共分五个地质灾害区和十八个地质灾害亚区。     

昌邑—大店一带活动断裂对地质灾害影响研究

为研究活动断裂对地质灾害的影响,选取华北板块鲁西地块与苏鲁造山带东界昌邑—大店断裂为研究对象,通过野外面积调查、构造剖面测量、工程地质样品分析测试、综合研究等手段,详细调查了区内活动构造的特征、地质灾害的发育特征,在此基础上讨论了活动断裂对地质灾害影响机制,认为受昌邑—大店构造的影响,地裂缝分布主要沿构造带分布,区内地...     

Markov transition model to dementia with death as a competing event

This study evaluates the effect of death as a competing event to the development of dementia in a longitudinal study of the cognitive status of elderly subjects. A multi-state Markov model with three transient states: intact cognition, mild cognitive impairment (M.C.I.) and global impairment (G.I.) and one absorbing state: dementia is used to model the cognitive panel data; transitions among states depend on four covariates age, education, prior state (intact cognition, or M.C.I., or G.I.) and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-4 allele (APOE4). A Weibull model and a Cox proportional hazards (Cox PH) model are used to fit the survival from death based on age at entry and the APOE4 status. A shared random effect correlates this survival time with the transition model. Simulation studies determine the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates to the violations of the Weibull and Cox PH model assumptions. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a longitudinal cohort of 672 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun.     

试论安全管理中的心理隐患

据统计,90%的安全事故由行为隐患引起,减少安全事故的重点是减少行为隐患。而行为隐患由心理隐患引起,因此,减少心理隐患才是减少安全事故的关键。但现行法规中对心理隐患并未明确规定,使事故隐患排查失去了方向。心理隐患作为类别应在法规层面得到确认,并明确排查要求以促进心理隐患的辨识和心理隐患排查机制建立,提高企业安全管理水平。