浅谈监理工程师如何抓好施工阶段的投资控制

在多年工程实践的基础上研究、分析了施工阶段投资控制的方法问题。     

Forecasting Canadian nuclear power station construction costs

Because of the huge volume of capital required to construct a modern electric power generating station, investment decisions have to be made with as complete an understanding of the consequences of the decision as possible. This understanding must be provided by the evaluation of future situations. A key consideration in an evaluation is the financial component. This paper attempts to use an econometric method to forecast the construction costs escalation of a standard Canadian nuclear generating station (NGS). A brief review of the history of Canadian nuclear electric power is provided. The major components of the construction costs of a Canadian NGS are studied and summarized. A database is built and indexes are prepared. Based on these indexes, an econometric forecasting model is constructed using an apparently new econometric methodology of forecasting modelling. Forecasts for a period of 40 years are generated and applications (such as alternative scenario forecasts and range forecasts) to uncertainty assessment and/or decision-making are demonstrated. The indexes, the model, and the forecasts and their applications, to the best of the author's knowledge, are the first for Canadian NGS constructions.     

IT投资风险预警的研究

进行IT投资风险预警的基础是对IT投资风险域进行分析;文章提出了基于IT投资目标、信息化生命周期以及企业架构的IT投资风险域的三维框架,并引入贝叶斯网络的原理建立预警机制。最后,在此基础上进行了IT投资风险预警的案例分析。     

铁矿石境外投资风险评估的模糊神经网络模型

论文将模糊理论与神经网络结合,对铁矿石境外投资所涉及的风险因素分别从资产影响、威胁频度两方面进行分析,建立了铁矿石境外投资的风险层次化结构,并构造了各因素所对应评判集的隶属度矩阵;综合运用模糊推理算法与神经网络仿真技术,对铁矿石境外投资的风险进行评估,进而判定铁矿石境外投资风险等级。最后,通过计算铁矿石境外投资的市场风险说明了算法的应用,并将结果与模糊综合评估得到的风险值进行比较,检测了模型的有效性。     

中国智能电网发展综述

随着中国经济的进一步发展,电力负荷增长迅速,电网供电压力增大,传统电网已无法满足日益增长的电力需求。因此,建立统一坚强的智能电网是中国电网发展的方向。介绍了智能电网的背景和定义以及智能电网的基本信息;叙述了中国智能电网发展现状涵盖了目前国家对智能电网的政策、投资以及智能电网示范项目;分析了中国智能电网发展在政策投资、相关技术研究、基础设施建设、概念推广方面存在的问题。指出为在资源与环境的约束下提高电力生产效率,改善电力结构,以最小社会成本满足最大经济发展需求,中国智能电网的发展势在必行。     

γ—TiAl增压涡轮熔模铸造过程数值模拟研究

根据熔模型壳离心浇注的铸造工艺特点，建立了γ－TiAl增压涡轮凝固传热过程的数值模型，推导了离心压力下γ－TiAl金属间化合物的凝固收缩和补缩过程数学模型，模拟计算了γ－TiAl增压涡轮铸件的温度场和收缩缺陷，结果表明，模型能可靠计算γ－TiAl增压涡轮铸件凝固过程的温度分布和准确预测铸件的收缩缺陷，数值模拟结果与实验结果吻合良好，数值模拟结果证实了前期工作所提出的进一步减少及消除收缩缺陷的优化工艺措施的合理性。     

我国环保产业研究与发展的探讨

在总结我国环保产业研究与发展现状的基础上 ,指出我国环保产业的发展必须得到理论研究的指导 ,并对有关问题进行了深入地探讨。根据我国加入WTO后的环保产业现状 ,预测、分析了将在我国环保产业形成投资热点的几个领域     

高等教育投资项目社会评价指标体系的分析与构建

我国高等教育的高速发展对高等教育投资主体和资金来源多元化提出了新的要求。如何对高等教育投资项目的经济和社会效益进行合理评价 ,这既是各投资主体关注的重点 ,也是高等院校如何加快高等教育建设步伐的核心问题。由于高等教育所具有的特殊性 ,目前 ,我国对高等教育投资项目的效益问题研究甚少 ,而高等教育投资项目的社会评价问题更是刚刚起步。本文在深入研究教育经济学及建设项目评价相关知识的基础上 ,总结了高等教育投资项目社会评价的基本特点 ,进而构建了高等教育投资项目社会评价指标体系。这对建立和完善高等教育投资项目评价理论 ,正确进行高等教育投资决策奠定了坚实的基础。     

Visualising a knowledge mapping of information systems investment evaluation

Information systems (IS) facilitate organisations to increase responsiveness and reduce the costs of their supply chain. This paper seeks to make a contribution through exploring and visualising knowledge mapping from the perspective of IS investment evaluation. The evaluation of IS is regarded as a challenging and complex process, which becomes even more difficult with the increased complexity of IS. The intricacy of IS evaluation, however, is due to numerous interrelated factors (e.g. costs, benefits and risks) that have human or organisational dimensions. With this in mind, there appears to be an increasing need to assess investment decision-making processes, to better understand the often far-reaching implications associated with technology adoption and interrelated knowledge components (KC). Through the identification and extrapolation of key learning issues from the literature and empirical findings, organisations can better improve their business processes and thereby their effectiveness and efficiency, while preventing others from making costly oversights that may not necessarily be only financial. In seeking to enlighten the often obscure evaluation of IS investments, this paper attempts to inductively emphasise the dissemination of knowledge and learning through the application of a fuzzy Expert System (ES) based knowledge mapping technique (i.e. Fuzzy Cognitive Map [FCM]). The rationale for exploring knowledge and IS investment evaluation is that a knowledge map will materialise for others to exploit during their specific technology evaluation. This is realised through conceptualising the explicit and tacit investment drivers. Among the several findings drawn from this research, the key resulting knowledge mapping through FCM demonstrated the complex, multifaceted and emergent behaviour of causal relationships within the knowledge area. The principal relationships and knowledge within IS investment evaluation are illustrated as being determined by a blend of managerial and user perspectives.     

对投资子午胎产业热潮的思考

面对80亿元人民币投资我国子午胎产业的热潮，冷静解剖轮胎产业和市场，按照经济结构分析企业发展趋势，预测子午胎企业2003年市场需求和近几年发展总趋势。提出构筑子午胎企业竞争优势的战略大框架，建议组建国家级联合舰队，提升我国子午胎行业的国际竞争力，规避市场风险。