Risk Factors for Course of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Among Vietnam Veterans: A 14-Year Follow-Up of American Legionnaires.

Risk factors affecting the course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are poorly understood. As part of a larger study on characterizing exposure to herbicides in Vietnam, the authors investigated this issue in a random sample of 1,377 American Legionnaires who had served in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam War and were followed over a 14-year period. High combat exposure, perceived negative community attitudes at homecoming, minority race, depression symptoms at Time 1, and more anger at Time 1 predicted a more chronic course. Community involvement at Time 1 was protective and associated with decreased risk at Time 2. Discomfort in disclosing Vietnam experiences was associated with an increased risk for developing PTSD but did not predict its course. Combat exposure predicted PTSD course more strongly than any other risk factor. Findings suggest recovery from PTSD is significantly influenced by perceived social support. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

热带钢连轧机工作辊温度场和热凸度预报模型

采用一种具有较高精度的样条有限条法对轧制过程中工作辊的温度场和热凸度进行计算和预报。结果证明，该模型理论计算值与现场实测值吻合较好，可以较准确地计算和预报热带钢连轧机工作辊的热凸度。     

利用非线性自适应技术检测微弱的瞬时信号

本文根据局部流形理论,提出了一类非线性自适应预测滤波模型。仿真结果显示,本文提出的自适应预测滤波模型具有很强的非线性近似能力,可以检测淹没在超混沌或杂波环境中的瞬时信号。     

东营凹陷岩性圈闭含油性定量预测

依据东营凹陷岩性油气藏勘探实践，其成藏主控因素概括为烃源岩、输导体系和成藏动力。以油气成藏动力为主线，从油气运聚的动力和阻力2个方面入手，将主控因素定量化，成藏动力为油气排出初始压力减去运移路径的压力衰减、储层静水压力和砂体毛细管压力。回归东营凹陷48个岩性圈闭的成藏动力与油气充满度的关系，建立了砂体含油性成藏动力定量预测公式。采用先确定烃源岩、输导体系和储层物性，最后计算成藏动力的方法，在对砂体钻预探井之前定量预测其含油性，从而降低勘探风险，提高勘探成功率。     

Accuracy of teacher judgments in predicting oral reading fluency.

The relationship between teachers' judgments versus actual performance on curriculum-based measures in reading was examined. A total of 30 regular education teachers were asked to predict the oral reading fluency score of students along with a rating scale of reading subskills. Correlations between teacher judgment measures and student performance found that teachers were accurate reporters of student performance levels in reading. However, some questions were raised whether teachers were accurate at predicting the actual level of student oral reading fluency when effect sizes were used to compare teacher judgment and actual student performance. Recommendations for continued research in understanding the parameters of the accuracy of teacher judgment are made. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Structural integrity in electronics

With continuing miniaturisation, increased performance demands and the requirement to remove lead from solder alloys, the challenges to structural integrity and reliability of electronic equipment are substantial and increasing. This paper outlines typical features in electronic equipment of which the structural integrity community may be generally unaware. Potential failure modes in service are described, and the problems of scale and material characteristics are considered. Progress in the application of fracture mechanics to the life prediction of interconnections is reviewed. The limited evidence available suggests that the crack growth resistance of silver‐containing lead‐free solders is superior to that of the traditional Sn‐37Pb under cycle‐controlled conditions but there is no difference when time‐dependent conditions prevail. In several respects, it is contended that the electronics sector is faced with challenges at least equivalent to those encountered in gas turbines and nuclear power generation.     

塔里木盆地塔中地区火成岩体识别与预测技术

塔里木盆地塔中地区火成岩发育,纵向上从二叠系至前震旦系主要发育有4期,严重地影响了该区构造圈闭落实的可靠性以及油气藏后期的保存条件,也是塔中18、21、22等井钻探失败的主要原因。为降低钻探风险,在该区进行了火成岩体识别与预测技术攻关,总结出了7种方法,它们的相互配合,可以较为有效地预测火成岩分布以及火成岩对下伏构造的影响,指导该区勘探;通过中1井的钻探,已经取得了较好的效果。      

Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer fusion

The Kalman Filter is traditionally viewed as a prediction-correction filtering algorithm. In this work we show that it can be viewed as a Bayesian fusion algorithm and derive it using Bayesian arguments. We begin with an outline of Bayes theory, using it to discuss well-known quantities such as priors, likelihood and posteriors, and we provide the basic Bayesian fusion equation. We derive the Kalman Filter from this equation using a novel method to evaluate the Chapman-Kolmogorov prediction integral. We then use the theory to fuse data from multiple sensors. Vying with this approach is the Dempster-Shafer theory, which deals with measures of “belief”, and is based on the nonclassical idea of “mass” as opposed to probability. Although these two measures look very similar, there are some differences. We point them out through outlining the ideas of the Dempster-Shafer theory and presenting the basic Dempster-Shafer fusion equation. Finally we compare the two methods, and discuss the relative merits and demerits using an illustrative example.     

Encapsulation of PV modules using ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer as a pottant: A critical review

The primary purpose of this work is to review the literature about what is and is not known about using ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA0 copolymer as the encapsulant (or pottant) material in photovoltaic (PV) modules. Secondary purposes include elucidating the complexity of the encapsulation problem, providing an overview about encapsulation of PV cells and modules, providing a historical overview of the relevant research and development on EVA, summarizing performance losses reported for PV systems deployed since ca. 1981, and summarizing the general problems of polymer stability in a solar environment. We also provide a critical review of aspects of reported work for cases that we believe are important.Failure modes resolved in the early work to establish reliability of deployed modules and the purposes and properties of pottants, are summarized. Typical performance losses in large field-deployed, large-scale systems ranging from 1% to 10% per year are given quantitatively, and qualitative reports of EVA discoloration are summarized with respect to ultraviolet (UV), world-wide location and site dependence.The general stability of polymers and their desirable bulk properties for solar utilization are given. The stabilization formulation for EVA, its effectiveness, and changes in it during degradation are discussed. The degradation mechanisms for the base resin, e.g., unstabilized Elvax 150^TM, and stabilized EVA are indicated for literature dating to the early 1950s, and the role played by unsaturated chromophores is indicated. The limited number of studies relating discoloration and PV cell efficiency are summarized.Observed degradation of EVA or the unstabilized base resin in the laboratory and examples used to measure the degradation are summarized in sections entitled: (1) thermally-induced degradation; (2) photodegradation and photothermal degradation of EVA in different temperature regimes; (3) photobleaching and photodegradation of the UV absorber and cross-linking agent; (4) acetic acid and metal and metal-oxide catalyzed oxidative degradation; and (5) discolaration and PV cell efficiency losses.Processing effects/influences on EVA stability are discussed in sections entitled: (1) EVA raw materials and extruded, uncured films; (2) thermal encapsulation processes; (3) effects of lamination, curing, and curing peroxide on gel content and chromophores formed; and (4) incomplete shielding of curing-generated chromophores. A summary is given for the limited number of accelerated lifetime testing efforts and examples of erroneous service lifetime predictions for EVA are discussed. The known factors that effect the discoloration rate of several EVA formulations are discussed in which the reduction in rate by using UV-absorbing superstrates is a prime example. A summary is given of what is and is not known about EVA degradation mechanisms, degradation from exposures in field-deployed modeules and/or laboratory testing, and factors that contribute to EVA stability or degradation. Finally, conclusions about using Elvax 150 in EVA formulations are summarized, and future prospects for developing the next-generation pottant for encapsulating PV modules are discussed.