苏丹爱马公路项目设备租赁与购置经济比选与决策分析

随着国际工程承包市场的竞争不断加大,项目利润率不断下降。要在国际市场中占据一定的份额,我国企业必须提高工程项目管理水平,在满足合同要求、工程质量与工期的前提下,追求利润最大化。施工设备作为国际工程项目的主要生产要素,如何合理地选择和配置是提高企业市场竞争力及盈利能力的关键。笔者从成本管理的角度进行了财务分析,并综合考虑设备购置和租赁的经济性,通过案例数据进行多种经济分析和比较,从而选择最优方案。     

引水工程运行管理决策支持系统设计与实现

引水工程是我国水资源战略调配的重要举措,在我国水资源调配已经或将发挥重要作用,引水工程的信息化建设将促进和提高引水工程运行管理水平。在分析引水工程特点及其运行管理需求的基础上,应用先进的信息采集、通信网络、空间和计算机控制处理技术,对引水工程运行调度管理决策支持系统进行分析设计,以吉林省引嫩入白引水工程为例,进行应用实践。通过应用表明,该系统运行稳定,界面友好,提升了引水工程水利信息化水平,充分发挥了引水工程的效益。     

基于灰色聚类的大规模群体语言评价信息集结研究

研究群体规模较大的情况下基于语言评价信息的决策方法,提出了基于灰色关联聚类的方法以降低大规模群体的协调困难;根据决策者所属群体类别差异,基于语言信息转化函数提出了类内评价指标权重确定方法,并测算了各群体类别的综合偏好;研究群体类间权重确定模型,建立了基于群体类别意见偏差最小的群体偏好集结模型;进而提出了决策者判断一致度定义以及决策者偏差协调方法.算例分析表明了该方法的应用步骤及可行性.     

基于分式规划的区间直觉梯形模糊数多属性决策方法

针对属性值为区间梯形直觉模糊且属性权重为区间数的多属性决策问题,提出一种基于分式规划的决策方法.定义了区间梯形直觉模糊数的Hamming距离和Euclidean距离,采用优劣解距离法构建了相对贴近度的非线性分式规划模型,并通过Charnes and Cooper变换转化为线性规划模型求解,得到各方案相对贴近度的区间数,进而提出了决策方法.数值算例分析验证了所提出方法的有效性.     

Intelligent decision support for effectively evaluating and selecting ships under uncertainty in marine transportation

This paper presents an intelligent decision support system for evaluating and selecting specific ships under uncertainty. A task-oriented procedure is developed for determining the relative importance of the evaluation and selection criteria with respect to a specific shipping task. A fuzzy multicriteria analysis algorithm is developed for determining the overall performance of each ship across all the selection criteria and their associated sub-criteria. An intelligent decision support system capable of integrating the developments above is proposed for facilitating the ship evaluation and selection process. An example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed intelligent decision support system.     

一种新的灰色多属性决策方法

针对模糊群体多属性决策问题,提出一种新的灰色多属性决策方法.该方法依据一般的灰色关联分析方法的基本思路,将灰色关联度和欧氏距离有机结合,构造出一种平均相似度对方案进行评价.平均相似度同时反映了方案与正负理想方案之间的位置和数据曲线的相似性差异,其物理意义更加明确.最后通过算例表明了所提出方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于直觉模糊集和证据理论的群决策方法

针对属性值和权重均为直觉模糊数的多属性决策问题,提出一种基于直觉模糊集和证据理论的群决策方法.首先,对专家给出的每个方案的属性值和属性权重进行证据合成,在此基础上合成每个方案的所有属性值;然后,基于直觉模糊集相似度确定专家的相对权重,修正方案证据,并合成所有专家证据,得到方案的信任区间,根据信任区间的大小对方案进行排序;最后,通过数值案例验证了所提出方法的有效性和合理性.     

网络与终端协同选择及切换机制的研究

提出了一种智能切换机制,用于实现在异构网络中网络与终端的协同选择及切换功能。随着各种业务和应用的发展,异构网络融合是信息和通信技术的必然趋势。根据多接入、多终端等应用环境的要求,采用AHP与URA等多属性决策理论,为用户选择最佳的目标网络和目标终端,并提出相应的智能切换信令流程,包括网络切换、终端切换、网络与终端联合切换方式,最终构建以用户为中心的多终端智能空间,实现个人移动性管理。仿真表明,该智能切换机制可以有效地实现网络和终端的协同选择,并可以保证在异构网络切换QoS性能,为现代服务业的业务及应用的发展提供可靠的理论依据。     

Perspectives of probabilistic inferences: Reinforcement learning and an adaptive network compared.

The assumption that people possess a strategy repertoire for inferences has been raised repeatedly. The strategy selection learning theory specifies how people select strategies from this repertoire. The theory assumes that individuals select strategies proportional to their subjective expectations of how well the strategies solve particular problems; such expectations are assumed to be updated by reinforcement learning. The theory is compared with an adaptive network model that assumes people make inferences by integrating information according to a connectionist network. The network's weights are modified by error correction learning. The theories were tested against each other in 2 experimental studies. Study 1 showed that people substantially improved their inferences through feedback, which was appropriately predicted by the strategy selection learning theory. Study 2 examined a dynamic environment in which the strategies' performances changed. In this situation a quick adaptation to the new situation was not observed; rather, individuals got stuck on the strategy they had successfully applied previously. This "inertia effect" was most strongly predicted by the strategy selection learning theory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)