基于历史中标数据的投标价合理性识别模型研究

招投标过程中,中标价常常是以投标价为基础的,因此投标价的合理性对中标结果具有重要的影响。为识别投标人投标报价的合理性,在分析国内外对投标价合理性识别研究的基础上,提出了以工程量清单项为合理投标价判别单元,并在历史中标数据的基础上,利用聚类分析方法对当前工程量清单项投标价进行合理性判别的投标价合理性识别模型。通过问卷调查的方式确立了工程量清单项投标价影响因素聚类指标体系,为当前工程量清单与历史中标工程量清单的归类提供了基础。同时,基于模糊 K 均值聚类法和层次聚类法相结合的聚类分析方法,建立并确立了投标价合理性识别模型,并通过实证验证了该模型的合理性与可操作性。     

Signalling chains with probe and adjust learning

Many models explain the evolution of signalling in repeated stage games on social networks, differently in this study each signalling game evolves a communication strategy to transmit information across the network. Specifically, I formalise signalling chain games as a generalisation of Lewis' signalling games, where a number of players are placed on a chain network and play a signalling game in which they have to propagate information across the network. I show that probe and adjust learning allows the system to develop communication conventions, but it may temporarily perturb the system out of conventions. Through simulations, I evaluate how long the system takes to evolve a signalling convention and the amount of time it stays in it. This discussion presents a mechanism in which simple players can evolve signalling across a social network without necessarily understanding the entire system.     

我院围术期预防用抗菌药物干预前后对比分析

目的调查采取干预措施前后围术期抗菌药合理用药情况,推动医院合理用药工作的开展。方法选择南昌大学第四附属医院2008年10-12月外科围术期病历300份作为非干预组,在医院进行一系列干预措施后,另选取2009年4-6月外科围术期手术病历300份作为干预组。分析2组病例抗菌药预防应用情况。结果抗菌药的合理用药比例由干预前的9.33%上升到干预后的89.33%（P〈0.05）;干预前围术期预防性应用抗菌药存在的主要问题,在干预后均有显著改善。结论实施围术期预防应用抗菌药物干预措施是有效的。     

徽州古建筑维修工程的类型策略研究

徽州古建筑是分布在古徽州地域,类型多样,数量众多的一个广泛概念,针对这些古建筑在今天的不同意义和种类,应采取不同的维修策略。本文着重探讨徽州古建筑维修工程中所应采用的几种策略及其合理性,以使徽州古建筑的修缮工作健康发展     

Fluency heuristic: A model of how the mind exploits a by-product of information retrieval.

Boundedly rational heuristics for inference can be surprisingly accurate and frugal for several reasons. They can exploit environmental structures, co-opt complex capacities, and elude effortful search by exploiting information that automatically arrives on the mental stage. The fluency heuristic is a prime example of a heuristic that makes the most of an automatic by-product of retrieval from memory, namely, retrieval fluency. In 4 experiments, the authors show that retrieval fluency can be a proxy for real-world quantities, that people can discriminate between two objects' retrieval fluencies, and that people's inferences are in line with the fluency heuristic (in particular fast inferences) and with experimentally manipulated fluency. The authors conclude that the fluency heuristic may be one tool in the mind's repertoire of strategies that artfully probes memory for encapsulated frequency information that can veridically reflect statistical regularities in the world. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Resolving crises through automated bilateral negotiations

We describe the development of an automated agent that can negotiate efficiently with people in crises. The environment is characterized by two negotiators, time constraints, deadlines, full information, and the possibility of opting out. The agent can play either role, with communications via a pre-defined language. The model used in constructing the agent is based on a formal analysis of the crises scenario using game-theoretic methods and heuristics for bargaining. The agent receives messages sent by its opponent, analyzes them and responds. It also initiates discussion on one or more parameters of an agreement. Experimental results of simulations of a fishing dispute between Canada and Spain indicate that the agent played at least as well as, and in the case of Spain, significantly better than a human player.     

利用不稳定产能评价检验试井解释参数合理性

针对复杂非均质储层，现代试井分析典型曲线图版拟合解释参数存在一定多解性，提出利用不稳定产能评价来检验试井解释参数。利用解释参数进行不稳定产能计算，将计算结果和油，井实际产量对比，根据误差情况来判断试井分析储层参数的合理性。实际应用说明，该方法是判断储层动态参数分析准确性的一种有效辅助手段，对于正确评价储层状况具有实际意义。     

如何使现代居室更加合理

介绍了现代居室的合理性，阐述了现代建筑住宅中每个房间结构设计的不足之处，论述了利用空间装修调节空间设计的效果，指出只有开拓设计思路，才能使居室更加合理、舒适，更具人性化。     

Asset Price Anomalies under Bounded Rationality

We analyze the classical asset pricing model assuming non fully rationalagents.Agents forecast future prices cum dividend through an adaptive learning rule.This assumption provides an explanation of some anomalies encounteredin the empirical analysis of asset prices under full rationality:returns are serially correlated(positively over a short horizon and negatively over a longer horizon)and the dividend yield predicts future returns (positive correlation).Considering the continuous time limit process,the same regularities are established analytically for price increments.