基于贝叶斯网络的软件项目风险管理模型

提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的软件项目风险管理模型。随着软件项目的进行,该风险管理模型能够利用不断更新的项目数据持续地预测潜在风险,确定风险源并采取适当的应对措施降低风险发生概率。经实践检验,在软件开发过程中引入该风险管理模型能够有效地对风险进行管理,提高软件开发的成功率。     

激光化学气相沉积(连载之二)

介绍了激光化学气相沉积的基本原理,较详细地讲述了制备金属薄膜、金刚石薄膜、类金刚石薄膜、氢化非晶硅薄膜、化合物半导体薄膜及绝缘体薄膜等所用的激光器、工艺参数以及薄膜的性能.     

基于模糊识别的高速公路交通流诱导系统

针对高速公路交通拥挤和堵塞问题,提出用模糊诱导的方法,对采集的交通信息进行处理后,通过模糊识别的方法,认定其状态,将交通状态数据通过图形化的方法,发布给司乘人员,以达到交通管理的目的。首先分析了交通流状态的表达方法,然后设计出交通状态模糊识别的判断函数,并给出了交通状态模糊表达的处理方法。     

Dietary supplement for energy and reduced appetite containing the β-agonist isopropyloctopamine leads to heart problems and hospitalisations

In 2013 the Dutch authorities issued a warning against a dietary supplement that was linked to 11 reported adverse reactions, including heart problems and in one case even a cardiac arrest. In the UK a 20-year-old woman, said to have overdosed on this supplement, died. Since according to the label the product was a herbal mixture, initial LC-MS/MS analysis focused on the detection of plant toxins. Yohimbe alkaloids, which are not allowed to be present in herbal preparations according to Dutch legislation, were found at relatively high levels (400–900 mg kg^–1). However, their presence did not explain the adverse health effects reported. Based on these effects the supplement was screened for the presence of a β-agonist, using three different biosensor assays, i.e. the validated competitive radioligand β2-adrenergic receptor binding assay, a validated β-agonists ELISA and a newly developed multiplex microsphere (bead)-based β-agonist assay with imaging detection (MAGPIX^®). The high responses obtained in these three biosensors suggested strongly the presence of a β-agonist. Inspection of the label indicated the presence of N-isopropyloctopamine. A pure standard of this compound was bought and shown to have a strong activity in the three biosensor assays. Analysis by LC-full-scan high-resolution MS confirmed the presence of this ‘unknown known’ β3-agonist N-isopropyloctopamine, reported to lead to heart problems at high doses. A confirmatory quantitative analysis revealed that one dose of the preparation resulted in an intake of 40–60 mg, which is within the therapeutic range of this compound. The case shows the strength of combining bioassays with chemical analytical techniques for identification of illegal pharmacologically active substances in food supplements.     

Using icon arrays to communicate medical risks: Overcoming low numeracy.

Objective: Icon arrays have been suggested as a potentially promising format for communicating risks to patients—especially those with low numeracy skills—but experimental studies are lacking. This study investigates whether icon arrays increase accuracy of understanding medical risks, and whether they affect perceived seriousness of risks and helpfulness of treatments. Design: Two experiments were conducted on samples of older adults (n = 59, 62 to 77 years of age) and university students (n = 112, 26 to 35 years of age). Main Outcome Measures: Accuracy of understanding risk reduction; perceived seriousness of risks; perceived helpfulness of treatments. Results: Icon arrays increased accuracy of both low- and high-numeracy people, even when transparent numerical representations were used. Risks presented via icon arrays were perceived as less serious than those presented numerically. With larger icon arrays (1,000 instead of 100 icons) risks were perceived more serious, and risk reduction larger. Conclusions: Icon arrays are a promising way of communicating medical risks to a wide range of patient groups, including older adults with lower numeracy skills. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

天津市成林路延长线工程BT建设模式

BT模式作为一种融资建设模式,不仅可解决建设资金瓶颈问题,而且又能给项目公司创造集融资、建设于一体,设计、施工、监理整体管理的良好平台。通过对天津市城市基础设施建设工程成林路延长线BT项目的分析,论述了BT模式在工程建设中的优势及BT融资运作模式,总结了具体运作过程中存在的风险,并提出了风险控制的对策。     

The role of classroom quality in ameliorating the academic and social risks associated with difficult temperament.

The present study examines the moderating role first grade classroom quality may have on the relations between children's difficult temperament (assessed in infancy) and their academic and social outcomes in early elementary school (first grade). Using data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development's Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, 1032 children were rated by their mothers at 6 months of age on difficult temperament. The quality of first grade classroom environments were then observed and rated along three domains: emotional support, classroom organization, and instructional support. Regression analyses examined the statistical interactions between difficult temperament and classroom quality domains on children's academic and social outcomes. Results indicate high-quality classroom environments may ameliorate the academic and social risks associated with having a difficult temperament. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

对地方政府债务及风险防范机制的研究

我国《预算法》明文规定 ,不允许地方政府发行公债。但近年来 ,各级地方政府为解决财政困难 ,以各种形式借债已成事实 ,诸多人为的原因 ,给地方政府造成了严重的债务风险。防范和化解债务风险首先应提高债务决策者们的风险意识 ,然后从债务规模、债务资金用途、建立偿债基金等方面着手 ,还应该探求建立“地方公债法” ,使地方政府举债有法可依。     

Integrating Outsourcing in the Maintenance Process

Outsourcing of software life cycle activities is a growing business area in many sectors influenced by Information Technologies. This fact, coupled with the usual lack of planning and high costs of software maintenance, may invite many organizations to outsource this important process of the software life cycle. Such outsourcing should be relied to a technological associate who can carry out this process using an adequate methodological foundation. In this paper we present the outsourcing strategy that we have integrated in MANTEMA, a methodology for software maintenance developed by our university and Atos ODS, a multinational organization which provides software maintenance services to third-party organizations.     

限制卖空对证券市场收益偏度和波动性影响的实证研究

证券市场上对于是否应该允许卖空交易一直存在很大的争议，研究在全球市场范围内卖空交易对整个市场收益的影响，通过建立实证模型检验限制卖空交易对证券市场收益偏度和波动性的影响，结果证明限制卖空使市场收益的偏度向负向偏离，并加大了市场收益的波动程度。最后根据实证结果提出了引入卖空交易，解决我国证券市场风险不对称问题的对策。