State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

Adaptive actuator failure compensation design for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems

In this paper, an adaptive control approach is designed for compensating the faults in the actuators of chaotic systems and maintaining the acceptable system stability. We propose a state‐feedback model reference adaptive control scheme for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems. Only the dimensions of the chaotic systems are required to be known. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, new adaptive control laws are synthesized to accommodate actuator failures and system nonlinearities. An illustrative example is studied. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the design method. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新形势下普通高校大学生行为管理模式研究

高校是培养人才的摇篮,肩负着科教兴国、人才强国两大历史性战略任务。由于社会环境的复杂化,人际关系的交错性,新时代的大学生行为状况给高校学生管理工作带来了新的挑战。针对新时期大学生行为特点,我们通过加强党建工作、强化学风建设、做好班级自主管理和深化社会服务四个方面工作进行分析,提出了全面引导、约束、规范和优化大学生的行为的建议和对策,从而有效解决新形势下普通高校学生管理工作的实际困难。     

A Global Maximum Error Controller Based Nonlinearity Aware TPWL Method for Reducing Nonlinear Systems

Abstract

Model order reduction is a common practice to reduce large order systems so that their simulation and control become easy. Nonlinearity aware trajectory piecewise linear is a variation of trajectory piecewise linearization technique of order reduction that is used to reduce nonlinear systems. With this scheme, the reduced approximation of the system is generated by weighted sum of the linearized and reduced sub-models obtained at certain linearization points on the system trajectory. This scheme uses dynamically inspired weight assignment that makes the approximation nonlinearity aware. Just as weight assignment, the process of linearization points selection is also important for generating faithful approximations. This article uses a global maximum error controller based linearization points selection scheme according to which a state is chosen as a linearization point if the error between a current reduced model and the full order nonlinear system reaches a maximum value. A combination that not only selects linearization points based on an error controller but also assigns dynamic inspired weights is shown in this article. The proposed scheme generates approximations with higher accuracies. This is demonstrated by applying the proposed method to some benchmark nonlinear circuits including RC ladder network and inverter chain circuit and comparing the results with the conventional schemes.     

Interlayer Engineering of Molybdenum Trioxide toward High‐Capacity and Stable Sodium Ion Half/Full Batteries

Orthorhombic molybdenum trioxide (MoO₃) is one of the most promising anode materials for sodium‐ion batteries because of its rich chemistry associated with multiple valence states and intriguing layered structure. However, MoO₃ still suffers from the low rate capability and poor cycle induced by pulverization during de/sodiation. An ingenious two‐step synthesis strategy to fine tune the layer structure of MoO₃ targeting stable and fast sodium ionic diffusion channels is reported here. By integrating partially reduction and organic molecule intercalation methodologies, the interlayer spacing of MoO₃ is remarkably enlarged to 10.40 Å and the layer structural integration are reinforced by dimercapto groups of bismuththiol molecules. Comprehensive characterizations and density functional theory calculations prove that the intercalated bismuththiol (DMcT) molecules substantially enhanced electronic conductivity and effectively shield the electrostatic interaction between Na⁺ and the MoO₃ host by conjugated double bond, resulting in improved Na⁺ insertion/extraction kinetics. Benefiting from these features, the newly devised layered MoO₃ electrode achieves excellent long‐term cycling stability and outstanding rate performance. These achievements are of vital significance for the preparation of sodium‐ion battery anode materials with high‐rate capability and long cycling life using intercalation chemistry.     

积分中值屈服准则解析厚板轧制椭圆速度场

为解决非线性Mises比塑性功率积分困难以及由此导致的轧制功率解析式难以获得的问题,本文通过建立并利用线性比塑性功率表达式对提出的椭圆速度场进行能量分析,得到了轧制力能参数的解析解.文中通过对变角度屈服函数求积分中值,构建了一个新的屈服准则,它是主应力分量的线性组合,在π平面上的轨迹是逼近Mises圆的等边非等角的十二边形,其基于Lode参数表达式的理论结果也与实验数据吻合较好.同时,根据厚板轧制时金属流动速度从入口到出口逐渐增大的特点,提出了水平速度分量满足椭圆方程的速度场,该速度场满足运动许可条件.通过相应的轧制能量分析,获得了基于线性屈服准则的内部变形功率以及基于应变矢量内积法上的摩擦功率与剪切功率.在此之上,通过泛函的极值变分导出了轧制力矩、轧制力以及应力状态系数的解析解,并与现场实测数据进行了对比,结果表明利用本文提出的屈服准则与速度场所建立的轧制力矩与轧制力模型与实测值吻合较好,其中轧制力误差小于5.3%,轧制力矩误差在6%左右.     

Crystallization and spectroscopic properties in Er3+ doped oxyfluorogermanate glass ceramics containing Na

The Er³⁺ doped oxyfluorogermanate glasses, with a composition containing Na element, were synthesized by the conventional melting–quenching technique. When Na element was introduced into the composition of oxyfluorogermanate glass, the crystals behavior was investigated in details. Depending on the annealing procedure supplied, thermal annealing of precursor glasses in the system GeO₂/BaF₂/AlF₃/Na₂O/NaF/ZnO/GdF₃/ErF₃ led to the precipitation of different crystal phase nanocrystals. It was confirmed the nanocrystals in GC600 is orthorhombic NaBaAlF₆ which led to enhance obviously in the UC luminescence of Er³⁺. However, the nanocrystals in G585 led to decrease in the UC luminescence, which indicated few Er ions enter into the lattice of this nanocrystal phase. The reason of the decrease in UC emission intensity of GC585 was analyzed.     

A case-deletion diagnostic for penalized calibration estimators and BLUP under linear mixed models in survey sampling

The penalized calibration technique in survey sampling combines usual calibration and soft calibration by introducing a penalty term. Certain relevant estimates in survey sampling can be considered as penalized calibration estimates obtained as particular cases from an optimization problem with a common basic structure. In this framework, a case deletion diagnostic is proposed for a class of penalized calibration estimators including both design-based and model-based estimators. The diagnostic compares finite population parameter estimates and can be calculated from quantities related to the full data set. The resulting diagnostic is a function of the residual and leverage, as other diagnostics in regression models, and of the calibration weight, a singular feature in survey sampling. Moreover, a particular case, which includes the basic unit level model for small area estimation, is considered. Both a real and an artificial example are included to illustrate the diagnostic proposed. The results obtained clearly show that the proposed diagnostic depends on the calibration and soft-calibration variables, on the penalization term, as well as on the parameter to estimate.