NUMERICAL MODEL FOR DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC FLOW

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Network traffic prediction based on a new time series model

Fast and accurate methods for predicting traffic properties and trend are essential for dynamic network resource management and congestion control. With the aim of performing online and feasible prediction of network traffic, this paper proposes a novel time series model, named adaptive autoregressive (AAR). This model is built upon an adaptive memory‐shortening technique and an adaptive‐order selection method originally developed by this study. Compared to the conventional one‐step ahead prediction using traditional Box–Jenkins time series models (e.g. AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and ARFIMA), performance results obtained from actual Internet traffic traces have demonstrated that the proposed AAR model is able to support online prediction of dynamic network traffic with reasonable accuracy and relatively low computation complexity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Success and failures in urban transport planning in Europe—understanding the transport system

Technological determinism has become a kind of religion for many people since it appears to offer solutions for societal problems as never before in history. Transport is one of the fascinating technology branches developed during the last 200 years. Effortless movement over long distances has become possible for car users as long as cheap fossil energy is available. However, the effect of fast transport on urban structures and society was not taken into account when developing these technical means. Technologists and economists have used indicators for expected benefits of these fast transport modes without taking into account the real system effects on society and urban structures. Plausible assumptions and hopes instead of scientific understanding of the complex system are used in practice. In contradiction to widely held beliefs of transportation planners, there is actually no growth of mobility if counted in number of trips per person per day, no time saving by increasing speed in the system, and no real freedom of modal choice. Modal choice is dependent on physical and other structures, the artificial environment built by urban planners, transport experts and political decisions. The core hypothesis of traditional urban and transport planning ‘growth of mobility’, ‘travel time saving by increasing speed’ and ‘freedom of modal choice’ are myths and do not exist in the real urban and transport system. This is the reason why urban planning and transport planning based on traditional non-scientific assumptions is creating continuously not only more transport problems, but also environmental and social as well as economic problems all over the world, where these principals are applied. Urban transport planning in Europe, understanding the transport system and the solutions are presented in this paper.     

城市化进程中的小城镇交通初探

通过对小城镇城市结构、路网结构、交通结构和交通管理特征进行详细分析，得出小城镇交通问题症结所在，并初步提出小城镇交通规划和交通治理的对策。     

支持向量机在交通量预测中的应用

交通量预测对于区域交通规划有重要意义。提出一种基于支持向量机理论的交通量预测方法。该方法以统计学习理论为基础，通过和BP神经网络进行比较的实验，证明其在交通量预测中的有效性。     

On Striping Traffic over Multiple IEEE 802.11(b) Wireless Channels

Due to interference, path loss, multipath fading, background noise, and many other factors, wireless communication normally cannot provide a wireless link with both a high data rate and a long transmission range. To address this problem, striping network traffic in parallel over multiple lower-data-rate but longer-transmission-range wireless channels may be used. In this paper, we propose a new striping method and evaluate its performances over multiple IEEE 802.11(b) channels under various conditions. Our extensive simulation results show that this method is quite effective for such an application. S.Y. Wang is an Associate Professor of the Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering at National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan. He received his Master and Ph.D. degree in computer science from Harvard University in 1997 and 1999, respectively. His research interests include wireless networks, Internet technologies, network simulations, and operating systems. He is the author of the NCTUns 2.0 network simulator and emulator, which is being widely used by network and communication researchers. More information about the tool is available at http://NSL.csie.nctu.edu.tw/nctuns.html. C.H. Hwang received his master degree in computer science from NCTU in 2002 and currently is working for a network company. C.L. Chou currently is a third-year Ph.D. student at the Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Chiao TungUniversity (NCTU), Taiwan. He received his master degree in computer science from NCTU in 2002.     

基于人文关怀的信号配时方法研究

在传统的信号配时中，都是以减少车辆的总延误为目标，这样并不能很好地体现出整个社会中人的时间价值。现以减少所有通过交叉口的出行者的总延误为目标，在传统的信号配时方案的基础上，提出了一套新的配时方案，同时以减少全部出行者的总延误时间为目标给出了相应的延误评价公式，最后以杭州市文一路-古翠路口的实测交通数据进行分析，论证了本配时方案的有效性。     

Methodologies for characterizing traffic in wide area networks: Analysis and benchmarking

Since computer networks play an important role in distributed computing environments, an application's performance depends heavily on the quality of service provided by the communication networks. To ensure a high performance, the characteristics of wide area networks, WANs, must be well understood. This paper presents methodologies to characterize WAN traffic based on real measurements from Bellcore's backbone network that connects remote sites using dedicated T1 links. This paper also suggests some workload models that can be used for wide area network sizing and performance evaluation studies. It is found that the inter-site traffic pattern depends on the time of the day and the day of the week. Furthermore, the traffic between two sites is found to be reasonably symmetric, except for those sites designated as back-up sites. The coefficient of variation is used as a measure for the traffic burstiness and it is found to be 1·5 degree during working hours. The methods presented here are easy to use and cost-effective.     

用欢喜岭油田低凝稠油生产AH-90重交通道路沥青

针对欢喜岭油田低微稠油的特点，采用常压蒸馏—氧化沥青联合装五的工艺流程，生产出AH-90重交通道路沥青。经测试表明，各项性能均达到我国现行重主通道路沥青技术指标。在高温稳定性、低温抗裂性等方面都优于新加坡壳牌沥青。是一种优质的道路沥青。     

B－ISDN中的拥塞控制技术

Ｂ－ＩＳＤＮ是现代电信网的发展方向，拥塞控制技术则是其中的一个重要问题。由于Ｂ－ＩＳＤＮ采用新的信息传递方式──ＡＴＭ，使传统的拥塞控制方法不再适用。本文依据ＩＴＵ－Ｔ有关建议的最新内容对Ｂ－ＩＳＤＮ拥塞控制的基本思想、工作机制以及其中的主要功能作了较为详细的分析讨论，并提出了一些Ｂ－ＩＳＤＮ拥塞控制技术中尚需进一步研究的问题。