Network traffic prediction based on a new time series model

Fast and accurate methods for predicting traffic properties and trend are essential for dynamic network resource management and congestion control. With the aim of performing online and feasible prediction of network traffic, this paper proposes a novel time series model, named adaptive autoregressive (AAR). This model is built upon an adaptive memory‐shortening technique and an adaptive‐order selection method originally developed by this study. Compared to the conventional one‐step ahead prediction using traditional Box–Jenkins time series models (e.g. AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and ARFIMA), performance results obtained from actual Internet traffic traces have demonstrated that the proposed AAR model is able to support online prediction of dynamic network traffic with reasonable accuracy and relatively low computation complexity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

知识驱动的UG中的产品开发

重点论述了UG中的KBE即KF模块的知识驱动产品开发设计过程及其关键技术，介绍了知识驱动自动化过程，实例剖析了UG中的KF在产品开发设计过程中的应用。     

Reliability-based failure cause assessment of collapsed bridge during construction

Until now, in many forensic reports, the failure cause assessments are usually carried out by a deterministic approach so far. However, it may be possible for the forensic investigation to lead to unreasonable results far from the real collapse scenario, because the deterministic approach does not systematically take into account any information on the uncertainties involved in the failures of structures.Reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability-based forensic engineering) methodology is developed which can incorporate the uncertainties involved in structural failures and structures, and to apply them to the collapsed bridge in order to identify the most critical failure scenario and find the cause that triggered the bridge collapse. Moreover, to save the time and cost of evaluation, an algorithm of automated event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed and possible to automatically calculate the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of failure scenarios. Also, for reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using the Bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in the forensic report. For the applicability, the proposed approach is applied to the Hang-ju Grand Bridge, which collapsed during construction, and compared with deterministic approach.     

根本技术创新产品需求的获取及评价研究

根本技术创新对企业的发展具有决定性的意义。并对工程作为现代产品开发中新发展的系统化方法，在应用其对根本技术创新产品需求搜集及评价时，出现了满足顾客需求和创造顾客需求、资源需求与技术创新、理性决策与非理性决策、企业文化与技术创新等之间的矛盾。本文对产生这些矛盾的原因进行了分析，提出了相应的解决办法。     

网格曲面中孔洞的光滑填充算法研究

三角网格模型是几何描述的一种重要形式，有着广泛的应用。但三角网络模型常常会存在孔洞缺陷。这些孔洞的存在一方面影响视觉效果，另一方面会影响许多后续的操作，如快速原型制造、有限元分析等，因此有必要对这些孔洞进行修补。目前绝大多数孔洞填充算法是将网格模型中的孔洞提取成空间多边形，并对孔洞多边形进行三角化。这种处理方法的主要缺陷是没有考虑网格曲面在孔洞附近的几何形态，因而填充部分不能与整个曲面光滑地融为一体。笔者提出了一种三角网格曲面中孔洞的光滑填充算法。该算法根据孔洞周围网格曲面的几何信息来增加孔洞内部的采样点，然后再对增加的采样点进行三角化，较好地解决了填充部分与整体曲面光滑连接的问题。     

针梁台车在大花水水电站引水隧洞混凝土衬砌施工中的改进

大花水水电站引水隧洞由于前期开挖工期略有滞后，为加快施工进度，结合全圆断面的施工特点，大部分引水隧洞采用了全圆针梁穿行式钢模台车进行混凝土衬砌。通过各参建单位对针梁台车的运用和改进，有效地提高了引水隧洞混凝土的衬砌速度，并确保了工程质量。     

包装工程专业的建设与现代物流

根据现代物流的发展，讨论了包装工程专业的建设。     

无线传输有线接入钻井数据库管理系统

本文详细的介绍了无线传输有线接入钻井数据库管理系统的设计和实现过程,同时对系统体系研制思路及关键技术,数据库系统结构、功能及特点等进行了阐述。通过应用该钻井数据库管理系统,管理者能够迅速、准确、全面、及时地掌握全油田钻井生产状况和钻井生产系统内部的钻井生产物料、资金等的使用情况,以便增强钻井生产系统的应变能力,提高钻井生产管理水平,从整体上提高全油田生产效率、生产资金的利用率,达到提高经营效益的目的。     

工程建设项目职业健康安全和环境管理机构的主要职责

工程建设项目要实施健康、安全和环境管理,文章阐述了工程建设项目职业健康安全和环境管理机构设置的必要性,该机构是项目职业健康安全和环境管理体系及其管理网络的管理者,是完成项目职业健康安全和环境保护管理目标的第一责任部门。该机构的主要职责有:编制作业文件,组织培训教育,进行监测、检查和监督,审核不符合项的整改、纠正和预防工作,记录及其管理,项目职业健康安全和环境管理评审。组织精悍、职责明确的管理机构并通过严密有序的工作,是实现项目健康、安全、环境管理目标的重要保证。     

New Engineered Particles from Spray Dryers: Research Needs in Spray Drying

This article reviews developments in the simulations of spray dryer behavior, including the challenges in modeling the complex flow patterns inside the equipment, which are often highly transient and three-dimensional in nature. There appears to be considerable scope for using CFD simulations for investigating methods to reduce the rates of wall deposition and of thermal degradation for particles by modifying the air flow patterns in the chamber through small changes in the air inlet geometry. Challenges include building particle drying kinetics and reaction processes, as well as agglomeration behavior, into these simulations. The numerical simulations should be valuable supplements to pilot-scale testing, enabling more extensive and accurate optimization to be carried out than hitherto possible. New understanding of reaction processes and materials science, in combination with recent knowledge of the application of CFD to these problems, may enable new engineered powder products to be developed from the one-step spray-drying process.