基于多分辨率SVM回归估计的短期负荷预测

针对短期负荷预测支持向量机（SVM）方法的局部逼近能力和泛化能力进行研究，将多分辨率支持向量机（M-SVM）用于短期负荷预测中节点负荷预测曲线的回归估计。该理论在保持曲线总体逼近能力的同时提高了局部区域的逼近能力。文中根据短期负荷预测的具体特点，设计了负荷预测数学模型，采用96条回归曲线进行日负荷的曲线预测，并在该模型的基础上采用实际数据进行验证，分析了这种回归模型的泛化能力。实验结果表明M-SVM模型在预测精度和预测速度方面具有优良的特性。     

分子束外延碲镉汞探测器的变结面积I-V测试研究

碲镉汞红外探测器的表面钝化处理对器件暗电流有较大影响,决定了器件的探测性能。为了研究表面钝化层不同生长方式对暗电流的抑制效果,使用分子束外延(Molecular Beam Epitaxy, MBE)系统在Si基衬底上生长碲镉汞材料,分别通过磁控溅射和原位钝化方法生长CdTe/ZnS钝化膜层。采用半导体工艺在碲镉汞材料上制备了变面积光伏探测器。通过测试不同钝化膜层器件的暗电流,分析零偏电阻和面积乘积(R₀A)与周长面积之比(p/A)的关系。结果表明,磁控溅射生长钝化层的Si基碲镉汞器件存在较大的隧穿电流,而原位钝化生长钝化层的Si基碲镉汞器件能更有效地抑制表面漏电流。拟合器件R₀A因子随PN结面积的变化,得出原位生长钝化层的器件具有更好的钝化效果。变面积器件的制备和测试能够有效且直观地反映器件性能。     

基于ANFIS的长期电力负荷预测模型

某电力公司的长期负荷预测模型,利用自适应神经网络模糊推理系统(ANFIS)建立.其结构分为计算输入的模糊隶属度、每条规则适用度、适用度归一化、每条规则输出及模糊系统输出5层.系统网络中含14个待定的前件和后件参数.采用Matlab编程,通过Sugeno和evalfis函数训练ANFIS,按指定指标得到这些参数,实现模糊预测.     

高应力动压巷道围岩冲击破坏机理与防治技术研究

以宝积山煤矿705工作面沿空侧回风平巷为工程背景,采用现场调研、理论分析、电镜扫描、数值模拟和现场工业性试验等相结合的研究方法,对水射流钻割冲孔防治冲击地压技术进行了研究。结果表明:水射流以基本段射流对孔壁的钻割为主,冲孔后孔壁周围塑性区内煤体裂隙十分发育;冲孔期间钻头沿钻孔轴向连续式运动,所形成的柱体状冲孔空间能够实现对煤体的卸让压增透效果,煤体内会重新形成应力峰值并呈“内低外高”的“双峰值”应力曲线;冲孔直径为420 mm、两相邻钻孔之间中心距为5 m、冲孔段长度取10 m时卸让压增透效果最佳。现场工业性试验期间,电磁辐射和瓦斯流量衰减监测数据验证了该冲孔防冲技术的有效可行性。     

Transition Motion from Ladder Climbing to Brachiation with Optimal Load-Allocation Control

Abstract

This paper describes the transition motion from ladder climbing to brachiation for a multi-locomotion robot (MLR). The MLR has versatile modes of locomotion, such as biped walking, quadruped walking, brachiation and ladder climbing. The transition is a challenging motion, because the environmental boundaries change and the robot has to switch the form of its locomotion depending on its surroundings, situations and purposes. The robot supports itself with three end-effectors that maintain its stability, while one hand transfers from a rung on the vertical ladder to a new rung behind the robot for brachiation. A closed kinematic chain is formed by the robot links and the ladder. In this case, if the number of position-controlled active joints is greater than the number of the chain’s degrees of freedom, an internal stress appears because of unavoidable position errors. The huge internal stress may lead some motors to become overloaded. Since the safety of each motor is very important for a serial-link robot, a load-allocation algorithm is proposed to balance the loads of the joint motors. The algorithm is verified through experiments.     

模块化多电平变换器优化调度调制策略研究

由于MMC电源的模块电容电压存在波动,一般认为它较为适用于定频运行。首先,定义了MMC电源的2种工作模式,即高效放电的工作模式和高效充电的工作模式;然后在此基础上提出了MMC电源的优化调度调制方法,该方法能够实现MMC变频变压运行时的低电容电压波动和高效控制;最后仿真结果验证了所提方法的有效性。     

负荷时间序列波动性的动态时变结构研究

采用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)族模型分析了负荷时间序列波动性的动态时变结构,提出了模型系的概念,使用滚动数据窗技术估计了指数广义自回归条件异方差(EGARCH)和幂自回归条件异方差(PARCH)模型系;在研究动态显著性水平线(DSL)的基础上,探究了时序波动性的动态时变结构,讨论了贯穿各子样本空间的波动不对称效应。算例分析中,将所建模型应用于短期负荷预测,比较了GARCH族模型的预测能力,得到了较高的预测精度。     

汽轮发电机机组并网信号的采集和使用探讨

在实际生产过程中,汽轮发电机组并网信号或存在事故隐患,或者给单元机组运行方式带来诸多不便。为此通过两个电厂的典型问题进行分析、研究,得出切实可行的解决办法,并应用于生产中。     

M701F型燃气轮机的在线运行负荷特性

分析了重型燃气轮机负荷特性的影响因素,提出了研究重型燃气轮机负荷特性的技术路线。基于此,针对某M701F型燃气轮机,以国际标准化组织(International Organization for Standardization,ISO)的标准条件为基准,由机组的在线运行数据获得其负荷特性曲线,并建立负荷特性的数学模型。考察该燃气轮机6 940组实际数据,得出结论:当折算基准功率不小于18MW时,其负荷特性数学模型的最大相对误差不超过5.73%。     

Evaluation of wind load integration in disproportionate collapse analysis of steel moment frames for column loss

The design of steel structures, in most cases, depends majorly on the level of wind loads which are prescribed by codes and regulations and are used in the structural analysis due to the fact that steel structures being light and ductile systems are strongly affected from a slight difference in the values of wind loading. During the last decades, disproportionate collapse analysis has become of major interest mainly due to the increasing number of failures occurring in that pattern. Commonly accepted guidelines and methods of analysis have been produced, the most dominating of which being the Department of Defense Facilities criteria or DoD. In the DoD, as well as in other criteria, the event of a column loss is suggested as the modeling scenario which has to be sustained by a structural system in order to be robust. However, all the guidelines so far have disconnected the column loss analysis from wind loads and have only performed it for gravity loading. This paper presents the dynamic time history disproportionate collapse analysis of steel frames, including various levels of wind loading. Interesting aspects are discussed through the parametric analysis of five different numerical examples of moment resisting frames.