谈乡镇防办能力建设

阐述了加强乡镇防办能力建设的意义，根据江西省新余市乡镇防汛机构普遍存在的问题，提出相关对策．     

基于ASP的洪水调度系统设计与实现

利用ASP技术开发了一个基于Web的水库洪水调度系统。介绍了该系统的功能、运行环境、设计方法和解决的主要问题。该系统针对水库洪水调度系统数据的特点，综合运用了面向对象方法和快速原型方法进行系统的设计。     

Artificial neural network based predictive method for flood disaster

Most of flood disaster predictions belong to ill-structured problems, while artificial neural network (ANN) has several characteristics that are suitable for solving them. In this paper, a neural network based predictive method for flood disaster problem is proposed in which the neural network model and its basic designing principles are described, and an example of flood disaster area in China from 1949 to 1994 is used for demonstration.     

三峡水利枢纽的设计洪水

在进行了大量分析研究后，认为三峡水系列采用Ｐ－Ⅲ型理论分布曲线进行拟合是合适的，采用１９５４，１９８２，１９８１年实测洪水作为设计洪水典型是可行的，安全的；采用的入库设计能反映三水库建成后的实际情况；各种时段洪量的期望概率，十分接近或销低于设计频率，能满足工程指定的设计标准；计算的可能最大洪水及校核洪炎为１１７５００－１２７０００ｍ＾３／ｓ，７天洪量６０７－６５２亿ｍ＾３１５天洪量可能最大洪水为１     

孤江流域"0206"特大暴雨洪水分析

分析了江西省吉安市孤江流域“0206”特大暴雨产生原因,并指出该地区相关防洪所存在的问题,有利于采取相应的措施．     

江西省县乡河道存在的问题及治理对策初探

概述目前江西省县乡河道存在防洪未完全达标、河道水质污染严重、河道周边生态与环境恶化、管理体制不完善等问题,分析了产生问题的原因,提出加强规划、污染防治、综合整治、监督管理等措施,不断提高县乡河道的防洪能力,充分发挥现有河道的功能.     

乌江彭水-银盘水电站联合防洪调度初探

在上游彭水水电站的预泄调度规则发生改变的情况下,研究下游银盘水电站的预泄策略。经初步研究,为了较大限度地提高水电站的发电效益,在预报精度可靠的情况下,建议在预报银盘入库流量将超过7 500 m3/s时分两个阶段预泄:在入库流量基础上增加流量3 000 m3/s,且要求出库流量不超过12 000 m3/s;当水库水位降低至210.5 m时按照原设计预泄方式调度。该预泄策略为充分考虑联合防洪问题提供了一条有效的技术思路。     

Mapping Sea Level Rise Behavior in an Estuarine Delta System: A Case Study along the Shanghai Coast

Sea level rise (SLR) is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions. Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). It is difficult, however, for decision-makers to implement adaptation due to the uncertain causes, magnitudes, and timings of SLR behaviors. This paper attempts to map the causes and magnitudes of SLR behaviors on a decadal scale. We analyze the tidal level records from 11 tidal gauge stations and the corresponding bathymetry measurements around these stations since 1921. We identify three new SLR behaviors along the Shanghai coast due to anthropogenic geomorphologic changes (AGCs), besides the well-known eustatic sea level rise (ESLR), tectonic subsidence (TS), and urban land subsidence (ULS). The first new behavior is regional sea level rise (RSLR), which occurs as a result of land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. The second is regional sea level fall (RSLF), which occurs because the channel bed is eroded due to sediment supply decline in the river catchment. The last SLR behavior is local tidal datum rise (LTDR). Thus, we project that the magnitude of SLR for the Shanghai coast ranges from 10 cm to 16 cm from 2011 to 2030. Clarifying SLR behaviors is important to aid local decision-makers in planning structural and non-structural measures to combat escalating flood damage costs in an estuarine delta system; this field is full of future challenges.     

Deriving the optimal refill rule for multi-purpose reservoir considering flood control risk

For most multi-purpose reservoirs, there is a conflict between the flood control and refill operations. Refill before the end of the flood season is a valuable and effective solution to the conflict. In this paper, we present a method to derive the optimal refill rule for multi-purpose reservoir considering flood control risk. The paper begins with an investigation of the temporal trends of historical reservoir inflow series during refill period by the methods of linear regression, Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho test. Six refill rules are then proposed. A procedure to couple a flood control risk module with utilization benefits analysis module is then developed to derive the optimal refill rule. China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study. The application results show that the optimal refill rule is that refill begins on September 1 with storage level reaching 160 m on September 30 linearly. Compared with the original rule, the optimal refill rule can increase hydropower generation by 7.19%, decrease spilled water by 25.07%, and improve the fullness storage rate to 95.35%, without increasing flood control risk.     

江西省2007年水库出险原因与对策

通过对江西省2007年水库出险特点分析,总结水库防汛工作经验,阐述防汛工作存在的不足,对今后水库防汛工作提出思路与建议.