用蒙特卡罗法模拟连铸坯的凝固组织

为了创建一种直接以图形显示晶粒形貌的连铸坯凝固组织计算机模拟方法,结合宏观传热计算和凝固理论,用改进的蒙特卡罗法建立了连铸坯凝固组织的计算机仿真模型。用此模型模拟了硅钢连铸坯的凝固组织并与实际铸坯的宏观组织进行了对比,模拟结果与实际结果基本吻合。在此基础上还模拟了不同过热度下铸坯的凝固组织。     

着发射击高射武器系统点射毁歼概率仿真

高炮点射毁歼概率计算很复杂且需做许多简化处理。按高炮的点射过程构建仿真统计模型,以4-25 mm高炮为例,仿真统计了6种不同形状目标的点射毁歼概率,并与相应的传统解析法计算值进行了分析比较,证明了解析法简化处理的一些不合理情况以及用C十十语言编程实现复杂随机系统仿真的可行性。     

Primary study on holdup measurement of ^235U in pipe using γ-ray spectrometry and Monte Carlo simulation

The pipe holdup measurement is very important for decommissioning nuclear facilities and nuclear-material control and accounting. The absolute detection efficiencies （εsp） of full-energy γ rays peak under different source density distribution function have been simulated using the Monte Carlo （MC） software, and the counting rates （no） of the characteristic γ rays have been measured using the γ spectrometer followed by the calculation of the holdup. The holdup is affected by the energy of γ rays, distance at which they are detected, pipe material, thickness, and source distribution of pipe, especially source distribution at a short distance. The comparative test of ^235U reference materials on the inner wall of Fe and A1 pipes （the total mass of ^235U is 44.6 mg and 222.8 mg, respectively） have been accomplished using this method. The determined result of ^235U is 43.2mg （U0.95rel=5.4%） and 216.2mg （U0.95rel= 3.2%）, respectively, which are in accordance with the reference values.     

基于Monte Carlo模型的微型PLGA给药系统建模及仿真

多腔体的微型可降解高分子聚合物PLGA药物缓释系统是一种新型植入式给药微器件,其载体结构是结合药物释放的要求和高分子聚合物生物降解特性进行设计并利用MEMS工艺制备.为了解微型给药系统实际释药的性能,需要对其进行建模和仿真研究.基于体溶蚀的Monte Carlo溶蚀模型,建立了具有多腔体的微型PLGA给药载体的释药模型,并对腔体结构为圆形的微型给药系统进行了释药过程仿真.仿真结果表明本文建立的微系统释药模型可以较为准确的描述微系统的释药过程,仿真模型对进一步开发微型PLGA给药系统有重要的参考价值.     

Model-based simulation of normal grain growth in a two-phase nanostructured system

To systematically study normal grain growth in a two-phase volume-conserved system, a modified Potts model is proposed, in which the driving forces for grain boundary migration are the interfacial energy between two phases and the boundary energy inside each phase. Model-based simulation results show that the grain growth kinetics follows a power law with a temperature-independent exponent and that the normalized grain size distribution is lognormal and time invariant. Also, a simple theoretical model is used to predict the potential microstructure in a two-phase system due to the competition between interfacial and grain boundary energies. A critical ratio (2.6) of the grain boundary energy to the interfacial energy is found for a common two-phase system.     

Composite system well-being evaluation based on non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation

The reliability evaluation of composite power systems has historically been assessed using deterministic and probabilistic criteria and methods. The well-being approach was recently proposed in order to combine deterministic criteria with probabilistic methods and evaluates the system by healthy, marginal and risky states. This paper presents an efficient method for composite system well-being evaluation based on non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. It is assumed that the system is coherent, and the frequency and duration indices are calculated by the conditional probability method. The system adequacy is evaluated by a non-linear power flow solved by the Newton–Raphson method and by an optimal power flow solved by the Interior Points method. Results are presented for the IEEE-RTS system with a constant load and with a variable load curve. It is demonstrated that the proposed method, as well as the assumed hypothesis, are valid and provide an efficient alternative for the well-being analysis of large scale power systems.     

电压骤降概率评估的建模与仿真

基于蒙特卡罗法和PSCAD/EMTDC实现对电压骤降指标进行自动随机评估仿真计算。推导了电压骤降故障信息的蒙特卡洛模型,并在PSCAD/EMTDC软件中建立和实现该模型,运用Multiple Run组件对故障信息进行多次随机抽样仿真计算,同时对仿真结果进行统计,得到各敏感负荷节点处电压骤降特征参数和电压骤降能量指标的概率分布。     

大尺寸焦平面空间相机调焦机构的精度分析

由于大尺寸焦平面空间相机调焦机构的焦平面两端存在的不可消除的同步运动误差会直接影响相机调焦精度,因此对焦平面两端同步运动精度进行了分析。首先,研究了大尺寸焦平面空间相机调焦机构的特点,提出了焦平面两端同步运动误差是影响其调焦精度的主要因素;其次,分析了影响同步运动精度的主要误差来源,建立了同步运动误差的数学模型,并采用蒙特卡罗仿真算法对数学模型进行了仿真分析;最后,通过测试焦平面两端同步运动精度对仿真结果进行了验证。仿真结果显示,同步运动精度为0.02 mm,与试验数据分析结果0.023 mm一致,说明此方法能够比较准确地确定焦平面两端同步运动精度,为后续在轨调焦策略的确定以及同类产品的研制提供技术支持。     

马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法风险分析

针对马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法存在将真实值作为异常值的风险,利用蒙特卡洛方法分析了不同频率、不同量级的异常值影响下马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法风险与效果间的关系。结果表明,马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法的风险随异常值量级和频率的减小而增大,同时还与估计方法选取的抗差权函数有关。