影响电网安全运行的各类故障及其相应对策

在统计分析了近10年来全国电网运行各类故障的基础上,对当前电网事故发生的特点和规律进行了分析总结,指出了制约电网安全运行的主要因素,并提出了相应的对策。     

论冲压模具定置摆放

重点介绍了汽车冷冲压模具因摆放不合理而存在的安全隐患和发生的工装事故,以及采用工装定置摆放后产生的经济效益和管理价值。     

Interdisciplinary safety analysis of complex socio-technological systems based on the functional resonance accident model: An application to railway trafficsupervision

This paper presents an application of functional resonance accident models (FRAM) for the safety analysis of complex socio-technological systems, i.e. systems which include not only technological, but also human and organizational components. The supervision of certain industrial domains provides a good example of such systems, because although more and more actions for piloting installations are now automatized, there always remains a decision level (at least in the management of degraded modes) involving human behavior and organizations. The field of application of the study presented here is railway traffic supervision, using modern automatic train supervision (ATS) systems. Examples taken from railway traffic supervision illustrate the principal advantage of FRAM in comparison to classical safety analysis models, i.e. their ability to take into account technical as well as human and organizational aspects within a single model, thus allowing a true multidisciplinary cooperation between specialists from the different domains involved.A FRAM analysis is used to interpret experimental results obtained from a real ATS system linked to a railway simulator that places operators (experimental subjects) in simulated situations involving incidents. The first results show a significant dispersion in performances among different operators when detecting incidents. Some subsequent work in progress aims to make these “performance conditions” more homogeneous, mainly by ergonomic modifications. It is clear that the current human-machine interface (HMI) in ATS systems (a legacy of past technologies that used LED displays) has reached its limits and needs to be improved, for example, by highlighting the most pertinent information for a given situation (and, conversely, by removing irrelevant information likely to distract operators).     

有色金属加工企业氯气事故原因与防范措施

剖析氯气管道系统、液氯钢瓶事故原因,根据氯气的特点提出了防范措施.     

Fatigue Subjective et Degradations de Performance en Environnement Hyperbare a Saturation

Au cours d'une plongée Active en atmosphere d'Helium-Oxygène (40 A.T.A. à saturation) trois sujets plongeura professionnels ont été souiius à une enquete quantifiée relative à leurs sensations de fatigue; paralleéement leur CFF (Critical flicker frequencyé a été déterminée.

Les inesuros ont été faitos en surface, pendant un confinement à I'Heliox, pendant la compression, le séjour au fond, la décompression, et après retour-surfaco (durée de l'exploration: 16 jours). L'analyse statistique des résultats a conduit aux conclusions suivants:

(1) Les signes subjectifs décelés ont consisté en baisse do vigilance et troubles physiques.

(2) Ces signes sont plus marqués pendant la compression et la saturation. lis sont réduits en décompression, sans effet conaécutif certain.

(3) Les signes de fatigue ne sont pas différents le matin et le soir.

(4) La fréquence critique do papillotoment (CFF) est négativement correlée avec la profondeur.

(5) Los modifications de CFF sont correlées avec le développement des signes subjectifs do fatigue.

(6) La fatigue hyperbare est un syndrome hétérogèno oú la baisse de vigilance et les troubles physiques paraissent tenir une place majeure.     

Using Neural Networks to predict HFACS unsafe acts from the pre-conditions of unsafe acts

Abstract

Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is based upon Reason’s organizational model of human error which suggests that there is a ‘one to many’ mapping of condition tokens (HFACS level 2 psychological precursors) to unsafe act tokens (HFACS level 1 error and violations). Using accident data derived from 523 military aircraft accidents, the relationship between HFACS level 2 preconditions and level 1 unsafe acts was modelled using an artificial neural network (NN). This allowed an empirical model to be developed congruent with the underlying theory of HFACS. The NN solution produced an average overall classification rate of ca. 74% for all unsafe acts from information derived from their level 2 preconditions. However, the correct classification rate was superior for decision- and skill-based errors, than for perceptual errors and violations.

Practitioner Summary: A model to predict unsafe acts (HFACS level 1) from their preconditions (HFACS level 2) was developed from the analysis of 523 military aircraft accidents using an artificial NN. The results could correctly predict approximately 74% of errors.     

Associations between driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs,speeding and seatbelt use among fatally injured car drivers in Norway

Since 2005, all fatal road traffic crashes in Norway have been analyzed in-depth by multidisciplinary investigation teams organized by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA). During the period 2005–2010, 608 drivers of cars or vans were killed in road traffic crashes. Blood samples were collected from 372 (61%) of the drivers and analyzed for alcohol and a large number of psychoactive drugs at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH). After coupling the analytical results with the NPRA crash database, 369 drivers with a fatal outcome were identified and included. Alcohol or drug concentrations in blood above the legal limits were found in 39.8% of the drivers who were investigated for alcohol or drug impairment; 33.9% had blood alcohol concentrations above 0.5 g/L or concentrations of drugs above the equivalent Norwegian legal impairment limits or concentrations of amphetamines above 200 μg/L. Among drivers with a fatal outcome who had been impaired by alcohol or drugs, 64.6% were unbelted and 71.7% were speeding when the crash occurred; whereas 24.2% and 33.2% of the sober drivers were unbelted or speeding, respectively. Statistically significant associations were found between impairment by alcohol or amphetamines and driving unbelted or speeding. Excessive speeding is one of the main reasons for road traffic crashes and together with being unbelted the main reasons for a fatal outcome. This behavior might in many cases be due to increased risk-taking or negligence of safety measures as a result of alcohol or drug use.     

开滦煤矿安全事故的灰色关联分析与趋势预测

以开滦煤矿的人－机－环境系统为研究对象,运用灰色系统理论,结合煤矿产生实际,对煤矿事故与其相关因素进行了灰色关产分析;并运用灰色预测方法,依据煤矿事故统计数据,对煤矿事故发展趋势以及荆各庄矿2001和2002年的千人负伤率进行了预测,分别得出8．1043和7．7033的结果,由分析预测的过程和结构表明,该方法简单易行,其结果可信,既可为煤矿安全事故的这量研究提供理论参考,又可为煤矿企业安全管理决策提供依据。     

民用低压电路中性线断开事故的分析

从理论与实验两个方面,对民用低压配电系统中性线断线事故进行了分析,用实验数据验证了电器烧毁的原因,并说明了中性线的重要性。     

对依兰煤田钻孔缩径挤夹钻具事故的认识

针对依兰煤田钻探施工中出现的钻孔缩径挤夹钻具事故,提出产生事故的根本原因不是因岩层本身膨胀所致,而是由于某种岩层裂隙发育,渗透性良好,吸水性强,使钻孔孔壁泥皮迅速增厚所致,并提出预防事故的具体措施。