基于关联规则的自然灾害预测系统

建立自然灾害预测模型,对自然灾害进行预测和分析,有利于提升防灾减灾的技术水平.基于关联规则和Web文本挖掘技术提出自然灾害预测系统的设计方案及实现方法.该系统利用成熟开源的爬虫框架从权威的灾害信息发布平台中定向抓取非结构化的自然灾害信息,通过中文分词技术进行数据清理将其整理成结构化的自然灾害数据库,并利用改进的关联规则算法从中挖掘出自然灾害事件的关联规则,进而可通过实时监控关联规则的前端信息,实现对自然灾害事件的预测.试运行结果表明该系统能有效挖掘出自然灾害信息的关联规则,并具有较高置信度.     

Stability analysis in spanwise-periodic double-sided lid-driven cavity flows with complex cross-sectional profiles

Three-dimensional linear instability analyses are presented of steady two-dimensional laminar flows in the lid-driven cavity defined by [15] and further analyzed in the present volume [1], as well as in a derivative of the same geometry. It is shown that in both of the geometries considered three-dimensional BiGlobal instability leads to deviation of the flow from the two-dimensional solution; the analysis results are used to define low- and high-Reynolds number solutions by reference to the flow physics. Critical conditions for linear global instability and neutral loops are presented in both geometries.     

滑坡体临滑声发射监测主机的设计

基于滑坡体临滑时因岩石断裂、岩石摩擦而产生声发射的特点,提出一种基于声发射监测的滑坡体临滑监测主机的设计方案。系统能监测的声发射频率范围为1Hz～20kHz,能监测的最小声压为0.002Pa。通过安装在滑坡体附近的声发射传感器,连续监测和记录滑坡体临滑时产生的声发射,可用于分析其变化规律和特征,从而实现对滑坡灾害的预测预报。     

羌族建筑及其抗震性能分析

羌族是我国最古老的民族之一。羌族石屋和碉楼承载着许多传统建筑的精湛技艺。通过分析羌族建筑的材料运用和修建方法,找寻其在建筑抗震技术上的价值。建议在5.12地震后的恢复重建中,宜遵循村民按照传统方法自建的原则。     

基于GIS的矿井自然灾害隐患识别、预警模型研究

以煤矿地理中间数据一体化管理的数据模型和数据结构为基础,文章提出了一种基于GIS的煤矿自然灾害隐患识别单体评判预警模型、区域评判预警模型以及两者综合的煤矿自然灾害隐患识别区域与单体联合评判预警模型,并详细研究了模型的数据要求和模型的实现流程等关键问题。     

银行交易系统灾备技术研究与应用

简要介绍银行在大集中后省级分行的灾难备份情况,以某省行交易系统为例,从省级分行的灾备需求出发,通过过多次实验,包括“从SAN中的共享磁盘启动小型机”和生产数据中心和备份中心灾难切换,设计了省级行以玲备份方式进行的灾难备份及恢复实施方案,有助于犬集中后省级行建立灾难恢复中心的建设,保证银行业务持续性稳定发展。     

认真深入做好前期工作确保三峡工程顺利兴建

三峡工程建设,无论是防洪,发电、航运其工程规模极其巨大,而且工程建设地处我国人口密集、经济相对较发达的长江干流上游最下部河段上;为此,工程建设的前期工作更应较全面深入周密细致,充分考虑方方面面的利害得失,正确地反映工程建设的经济效益。在开发性移民方针下,做好水库淹没损失的合理补偿和移民安置,不留后患。长江上游年年发生洪水造成灾害,工程设计应考虑在水库调洪运行中给上游带来的洪涝灾害淹没损失应得到相应的赔偿。执行《水法)对水资源的有偿使用经济收益的分配是一个有待探讨的问题。     

Calendar of Future Meetings Involving IWRA

ABSTRACT

Irrigation-water-delivery systems are designed and managed to receive water from a source and to distribute it among farmers in order to meet their agricultural requirements. High system performance can be achieved through rehabilitation of deteriorating and inadequate physical facilities and through improved system management. Various design decisions must be made in order to rehabilitate or develop irrigation-water-delivery systems, including those related to specification of the characteristics of hydraulic structures used to convey regulate, or divert water

This study develops and applies a response surface methodology (RSM) for achieving optimal design for hydraulic structures in irrigation-water-delivery systems in canal networks. This approach provides a means of understanding system behavior through developing a response surface in terms of a mathematical expression representing system performance as affected by design decisions. Design decisions include pipe diameters for diversion and regulating structures. Simulation of steady spatially varied flow was incorporated into the response surface methodology to determine high-performance low-cost solutions.

Objectives of adequacy, efficiency dependability, and equity of water delivery were considered in defining water delivery performance. Fuzzy membership functions were used to address subjectivity associated with interpreting expected values of performance measures associated with each of the prescribed objectives.

This study is an extension of a previous study by Alshaikh [1]. That study reported the application of RSM on a single canal case while herein RSM was used for the case of a canal network. Though, in general, RSMs for large-scale branched systems are computationally intensive, this proposed methodology overcomes this drawback. The approach constitutes a significant easy-to-use step forward in the development of comprehensive systems-scale techniques for the design of structural components of irrigation-water-delivery systems.     

城市综合承灾能力评价的粒子群优化投影寻踪模型

针对城市综合承灾能力评价的多因素影响问题,建立了城市综合承灾能力评价的粒子群优化投影寻踪模型.该方法依据样本自身的数据特性,利用粒子群优化算法寻求投影寻踪评价模型的最佳投影方向,并通过投影方向计算反映评价样本综合特征信息的投影特征指标,然后根据投影特征指标值进行城市综合承灾能力评价分析,因而避免了诸如各评价因素权重确定的主观性.实例分析结果与各城市承灾能力实际状态基本一致,显示了该方法能利用一个综合反映多因素之间复杂关系的特征指标给出相应的评价等级结果,且根据计算结果可以分析影响城市综合承灾能力的主要因素.     

减灾工程与农业生产产出相关性探析

为测量减灾工程对农业生产产出的影响,用灰色关联分析算法和计量模型方法,对农业生产系统中除涝、灌溉、堤防、水库等指标数据进行了无量纲化处理,形成指标关联度评估,同时在柯布-道格拉斯生产函数基础上将各指标数据纳入回归分析中,完成了除涝等指标对农业生产产出影响的定量评价．实证研究表明:影响农业生产的减灾工程作用从大到小的顺序为:除涝面积、灌溉面积、堤防长度、盐碱地改良面积、水库容量、水土流失治理面积. 扩大除涝面积、修建水库、增加堤防长度增加了农业生产总值,其中除涝对增加农业产值的效用最大,自然灾害阻碍了农业生产的发展,加大减灾工程投入有利于增加农业生产产出．