基于概率支持向量回归的产品设计时间预测模型

为使产品设计时间预测既克服小样本、异方差噪声问题,又提供除预测值以外的其他有用信息,建立概率支持向量回归(PSVR)模型。首先,在异方差回归模型基础上设计概率约束条件,以使预测值以较大概率位于真实值的某邻域,结合具有参数不敏感损失函数的支持向量回归确定优化目标,提出PSVR。然后,将最大完工时间知识嵌入进PSVR的约束条件,用以确定真实值邻域的宽度,将交叉验证与遗传算法相结合以确定PSVR的相关参数。最后,以注塑模具设计的实例进行分析,结果表明基于PSVR的时间预测方法可同时提供有效的预测值和预测区间。     

我公司进行热电联产的可行性分析

大压差减温减压是能的严重贬值。根据公司供热现状，分析了热电联产的可行性，利用蒸汽余压发电后，再供生产系统各热用户，这样既节约了能源又缓解了集团公司用电紧张的局面，而且有相当可观的经济效益。     

A reactive extension of the OpenMusic visual programming language

Objectives: OpenMusic (OM) is a domain-specific visual programming language designed for computer-aided music composition. This language based on Common Lisp allows composers to develop functional processes generating or transforming musical data, and to execute them locally by demand-driven evaluations. As most historical computer-aided composition environments, OM relies on a transformational declarative paradigm, which is hard to conciliate with reactive data-flow (an evaluation scheme more adequate to the development of interactive systems). We propose to link these two evaluation paradigms in the same and consistent visual programming framework.Methods: We establish a denotational semantics of the visual language, which gives account for its demand-driven evaluation mechanism and the incremental construction of programs. We then extend this semantics to enable reactive computations in the functional graphs.Results: The resulting language merges data-driven executions with the existing demand-driven mechanism. A conservative implementation is proposed.Conclusions: We show that the incremental construction of programs and their data-driven and demand-driven evaluations can be smoothly integrated in the visual programming workflow. This integration allows for the propagation of changes in the programs, and the evaluation of graphically designed functional expressions as a response to external events, a first step in bridging the gap between computer-assisted composition environments and real-time musical systems.     

Modelling water flow,nitrogen transport and root uptake including physical non-equilibrium and optimization of the root water potential

A model is presented for the simulation of water flow, heat flow, and nitrate and ammonium transport. Two approaches are used for modelling plant water uptake as well as for plant nitrogen uptake. Nitrogen transformations are accounted for in a very simple way. This paper focuses mainly on water flow modelling, solute transport, and water uptake. Richards' equation is used to model water flow in layered soil profiles with a great variety of boundary conditions. Solute transport is simulated with either a simple convection dispersion equation or with a two-region physical non-equilibrium model to distinguish between mobile and immobile water and solute exchange between these two regions. A macroscopic sink term is added to Richards' equation to account for plant water uptake. This term can be calculated along two different approaches, one of which is based on the concept of root water potential. The root water potential is then continuously optimized to minimize the difference between the climatic demand and the uptake rate.Simulation results are compared with field data from the Netherlands to illustrate the degree to which the model is able to predict water flow, solute transport and plant water uptake. The root water potential optimization model seems to provide the best prediction of water distribution. In particular the shape of the profile, revealing uptake patterns, is quite well reproduced with this model. Comparison of simulated and observed water content profiles seems also to reveal the presence of preferential pathways. The comparisons show also how predicted solute distributions can be improved by using a two-region approach rather than a simple convection-dispersion model.     

大型常压锥顶贮罐的设计

以工程实例为依据，论述国内以往较少采用的大型梁柱式支承锥顶贮罐的结构，介绍了国内外相关设计标准，给出了贮罐的典型结构－斜椽，横梁和立柱的计算公式，并用Excel电子表格编制了计算书。     

采用数据流图的故障模型生成算法及其应用

为有效地解决系统级故障注入试验建模困难问题,提出语言级生成数据流图,并以此构造动态故障树的故障模型建立方法.通过对故障过程数据流分析,找出数据依赖关系并构造了故障模型生成算法.与其他方法比较,本算法具有动态性,提高了故障覆盖率,减少了系统开销,使故障注入试验更易实现.     

圆管层流脉动流动的数值模拟

为研究圆管层流脉动流动特性,建立了二维非稳态轴对称模型,对壁温恒定、入口速度周期性变化的流体进行数值模拟.分析了速度振幅和频率对层流流动的影响,得到了频率和振幅对压力、温度、壁面摩擦系数影响的规律.研究表明:脉动流动时,压力、温度、壁面摩擦系数围绕相同Re下稳态流动时的数值波动;压力与速度之间存在相位差;压力、壁面摩擦系数的波动与速度振幅和频率成正比;温度的波动与速度振幅成正比,与频率呈反比;当流体脉动的频率和振幅足够大时,会在近壁面处出现回流,并且出现回流的时间会随着频率和振幅的增大而增长.     

双向搜索多约束路由启发式计算方法

为提高大型通信网络中搜索满足多约束条件路由的速度,提出一种双向搜索路由的计算方法.首先从源和目的节点同时出发,计算到达各中间节点的可达路径.然后在各可达路径中进行路径的筛选.可达路径是采用邻接矩阵变换方式获得的,筛选路径是根据非线性开销函数,采用启发方式择优选取.当两方向搜索的节点数累计达到n-2后,对接合并两方向到达中间节点的路径,从中再选择最佳路径作为路由输出.通过算例详细介绍了可达路径计算及启发式选优方法.阐述了算法的正确性及特点,分析了最大时间杂性.通过仿真实验评估,不仅更进一步验证了新算法的正确性,而且表明新算法在搜索路由速度上要优于其他算法.     

PSO-SVM模型的构建与应用

为了使支持向量机(SVM)获得更好的分类效果,针对人为选择参数的随机性,提出了利用粒子群算法(PSO)进行参数自动选取的优化方法,构建了PSO-SVM模型.在个人信用评估中,通过对粒子适应度函数的设置来控制造成较大损失的第二类误判,应用结果表明:模型在训练和测试样本中的分类精度可以达到95%,第二类误判率分别仅为0.78%和2.02%.利用PSO对SVM中的参数进行优化,可以避免人为选择的随机性,并且在解决分类问题中表现出较好的稳健性.     

应变空间中一般加载规律的弹塑性本构关系

为了建立多维应力、应变空间的弹塑性本构关系,将一般加载规律一维全量理论的简单弹塑性模型推广到一般加载规律的多维增量理论,并且给出应力空间的加载函数和应变空间的加载函数以及它们之间的正确的变换关系.在此基础上,在应变空间中建立了推导一般加载规律的多维增量理论的本构关系的一种途径.应用这种途径,从应变空间的加载函数出发,推导了等向强化材料的一般加载规律的弹塑性本构关系.理论和实例表明,这种途径对等向强化材料、随动强化材料、理想弹塑性材料和热弹塑性问题都适用.