Achieving robust design through statistical effect screening

This work proposes a method for statistical effect screening to identify design parameters of a numerical simulation that are influential to performance while simultaneously being robust to epistemic uncertainty introduced by calibration variables. Design parameters are controlled by the analyst, but the optimal design is often uncertain, while calibration variables are introduced by modeling choices. We argue that uncertainty introduced by design parameters and calibration variables should be treated differently, despite potential interactions between the two sets. Herein, a robustness criterion is embedded in our effect screening to guarantee the influence of design parameters, irrespective of values used for calibration variables. The Morris screening method is utilized to explore the design space, while robustness to uncertainty is quantified in the context of info‐gap decision theory. The proposed method is applied to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem, which is a black‐box code for aeronautic flight guidance that requires 35 input parameters. The application demonstrates that a large number of variables can be handled without formulating simplifying assumptions about the potential coupling between calibration variables and design parameters. Because of the computational efficiency of the Morris screening method, we conclude that the analysis can be applied to even larger‐dimensional problems. (Approved for unlimited, public release on October 9, 2013, LA‐UR‐13‐27839, Unclassified.) Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theoretical analysis of shunting effect in resistance spot welding (RSW) of AA2219

Shunting effect is the loss of electrical current via the secondary circuit provided due to existence of previous nugget in a series of welding spots. This phenomenon is important for products containing intermittent spots. In this study, a theoretical model is developed for shunting effect in resistance spot welding for aluminum alloy 2219. Welding distance together with welding current and time is included in the model to analyze the shunting effect on final nugget quality. Thermal and electrical interactions are considered in the model as well as geometrical aspects of the process. Temperature dependence of material properties, integration through the whole volume of the nugget and heat-affected zone, and assuming a simple cooling mechanism are the most important modifications designated in the proposed theoretical model. Predicted results of nugget diameter are compatible with experimental and finite element analysis results.     

An efficient hybrid reliability analysis method with random and interval variables

Random and interval variables often coexist. Interval variables make reliability analysis much more computationally intensive. This work develops a new hybrid reliability analysis method so that the probability analysis (PA) loop and interval analysis (IA) loop are decomposed into two separate loops. An efficient PA algorithm is employed, and a new efficient IA method is developed. The new IA method consists of two stages. The first stage is for monotonic limit-state functions. If the limit-state function is not monotonic, the second stage is triggered. In the second stage, the limit-state function is sequentially approximated with a second order form, and the gradient projection method is applied to solve the extreme responses of the limit-state function with respect to the interval variables. The efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated by three examples.     

Identification of Pivotal Causes and Spreaders in the Time‐Varying Fault Propagation Model to Improve the Decision Making under Abnormal Situation

Under abnormal conditions, timely and effective decisions of system recovery and protective measures are of great significance for safety‐critical systems. The knowledge of the roles that network nodes play in the spreading process is crucial for developing efficient maintenance decisions; for singling out and preferential control, the ‘pivotal spreaders’ may be a way to maximize the chances to timely hinder the fault pervasion. Inspired by the inhomogeneous topological nature of a complex fault propagation network, this study is devoted to exploring the spreading capabilities of nodes regarding both structural connectivity and causal influence strength, so as to provide decisions of preferential recovery actions under specific fault scenarios. Specifically, the dynamic betweenness centrality and nonsymmetrical entropy are incorporated to adaptively measure the system‐wide fault diffusion risk of a set of controllable fault events. In order to model the dynamics and uncertainties involved in the complex fault spreading process, we introduce the model of a dynamic uncertain causality graph, based on which solutions of time‐varying structure decomposition and causality reduction are adopted to improve the reasoning efficiency. Verification experiments consisting of simulated calculation cases and generator faults of a nuclear power plant show empirically the effectiveness and applicability of this method in large‐scale engineering practice. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a water-in-oil-in-water multiple emulsion system integrating biomimetic aqueous-core lipid nanodroplets for protein entity stabilization. Part II: process and product characterization

The aqueous-core enclosed in lipid nanoballoons integrating multiple emulsions of the type water-in-oil-in-water mimic, at least in theory, the environment within viable cells, thus being suitable for housing hydrophilic protein entities such as bioactive proteins, peptides and bacteriophage particles. This study reports a complete physicochemical characterization of optimized biomimetic aqueous-core lipid nanoballoons housing hydrophilic (BSA) protein entities, evolved from a statistical 2³×3¹ factorial design study (three variables at two levels and one variable at three levels) that was the subject of the first paper of a series of three, aiming at complete stabilization of the three-dimensional structure of protein entities attempted via housing the said molecular entities within biomimetic aqueous-core lipid nanoballoons integrating a multiple (W/O/W) emulsion. The statistical factorial design followed led to the production of an optimum W/O/W multiple emulsion possessing quite homogeneous particles with an average hydrodynamic size of (186.2?±?2.6) nm and average Zeta potential of (?36.5?±?0.9) mV, and exhibiting a polydispersity index of 0.206?±?0.014. Additionally, the results obtained for the diffusion coefficient of the lipid nanoballoons integrating the optimized W/O/W multiple emulsion were comparable and of the same order of magnitude (10^?12 m² s^?1) as those published by other authors since, typically, diffusion coefficients for molecules range from 10^?10 to 10^?7 m² s^?1, but diffusion coefficients for nanoparticles are typically of the order of magnitude of 10^?12 m² s^?1.     

Prediction of color changes in acetaminophen solution using the time–temperature superposition principle

A prediction method for color changes based on the time–temperature superposition principle (TTSP) was developed for acetaminophen solution. Color changes of acetaminophen solution are caused by the degradation of acetaminophen, such as hydrolysis and oxidation. In principle, the TTSP can be applied to only thermal aging. Therefore, the impact of oxidation on the color changes of acetaminophen solution was verified. The results of our experiment suggested that the oxidation products enhanced the color changes in acetaminophen solution. Next, the color changes of acetaminophen solution samples of the same head space volume after accelerated aging at various temperatures were investigated using the Commission Internationale de l’Eclairage (CIE) LAB color space (a*, b*, L* and ΔE*ab), following which the TTSP was adopted to kinetic analysis of the color changes. The apparent activation energies using the time–temperature shift factor of a*, b*, L* and ΔE*ab were calculated as 72.4, 69.2, 72.3 and 70.9 (kJ/mol), respectively, which are similar to the values for acetaminophen hydrolysis reported in the literature. The predicted values of a*, b*, L* and ΔE*ab at 40?°C were obtained by calculation using Arrhenius plots. A comparison between the experimental and predicted values for each color parameter revealed sufficiently high R² values (>0.98), suggesting the high reliability of the prediction. The kinetic analysis using TTSP was successfully applied to predicting the color changes under the controlled oxygen amount at any temperature and for any length of time.     

Controlled chemical modification of the internal surface of photonic crystal fibers for application as biosensitive elements

Photonic crystal fibers (PCF) are one of the most promising materials for creation of constructive elements for bio-, drug and contaminant sensing based on unique optical properties of the PCF as effective nanosized optical signal collectors. In order to provide efficient and controllable binding of biomolecules, the internal surface of glass hollow core photonic crystal fibers (HC-PCF) has been chemically modified with silanol groups and functionalized with (3-aminopropyl) triethoxysilane (APTES). The shift of local maxima in the HC-PCF transmission spectrum has been selected as a signal for estimating the amount of silanol groups on the HC-PCF inner surface. The relationship between amount of silanol groups on the HC-PCF inner surface and efficiency of following APTES functionalization has been evaluated. Covalent binding of horseradish peroxidase (chosen as a model protein) on functionalized PCF inner surface has been performed successively, thus verifying the possibility of creating a biosensitive element.     

SBS改性沥青超热老化模式下氧化与挥发的贡献机理

利用宏观和微观分析相结合的方法,定量分析了SBS改性沥青超热老化模式下氧化与挥发的贡献机理。通过研究不同老化温度下常规三大指标,DSR流变车辙因子分别在空气氛和高纯氮气氛下老化的衰变规律,并结合傅里叶变换红外光谱微观表征手段,定量计算出SBS改性沥青超热老化过程中氧化与挥发的贡献率,得出SBS改性沥青在超热老化模式下,其老化机理是以SBS分子中的双键被氧化为主要因素,但随着超热老化温度升高,小分子挥发等非氧化因素逐渐成为超热老化的又一主要因素。宏观分析中,从普通老化的163℃到超热老化的198℃,氧化与挥发对SBS改性沥青针入度衰减的贡献率比由6∶4变为1∶1;对延度衰减的贡献率比由7∶3变为1∶1;对车辙因子的贡献率比由24∶1变为2∶1;而红外光谱微观分析中,氧化与挥发对SBS改性沥青超热老化后不饱和双键的衰减贡献率比由7∶3变为1∶1。