Model validation and model structure determination

This paper gives a tutorial overview of basic approaches for model validation and model structure determination.Work partially supported by the Swedish Research Council for Engineering Sciences under contract 98-654.     

8Li次级束的产生

在北京串列加速器次级束流线上通过2 H(7Li,8Li) 1H逆运动学反应产生了用于核天体物理研究的8Li次级束。准直后的次级束纯度达到 80 %以上 ,对于 44MeV的7Li强度约为 3 0s- 1·pnA- 1,可以用来进行逆几何转移反应的实验测量。     

联产供冷与电力供冷能耗比较分析

文中将两种供冷能耗比较分解成用电煤耗差、用热煤耗量、增加产汽用电煤耗量三部分进行分析，按照热量法得出在目前一般情况下联产供冷比电力供冷通常费能和定性定量结论，为全面研究比较热电冷联产与分产的能耗奠定一个基础。     

葡萄栽培品种花芽高节位分化观察研究

在管理良好、植株健壮的条件下，葡萄花芽高节位分化是一个普遍的现象。一年生枝从低节位到高节位均可形成正常的花芽，并能正常开花结果，而且高节位分化花芽对当年的果实品质及次年的花芽分化无不良的影响。合理利用这一特性对促进葡萄幼树早丰产有重要的指导意义。     

野外大气扩散试验中四面体气球示踪实验的初步评价

1985年11月在瑞士北部进行了一次以探讨“冷池”条件下的扩散和湍流特征为目的的国际野外大气试验,本文介绍其中的四面体气球示踪实验的结果。一共进行了三次由雷达跟踪的四面体示踪实验,释放了10个四面体球。按多轨迹法和单轨迹法分别估算并比较了其中两次示踪实验得到的水平扩散参数σ_y,探讨了风摆效应的贡献。采用“体源模式”并结合单轨迹法估算了微弱风场不定风向条件下的扩散参数,分析了静风,弱风条件下的水平风向标准差和湍流强度。     

Information systems and uncertainty: a conspiracy of misplaced confidence

Abstract. Information technology is becoming an increasingly important factor in contemporary management. Information systems are being set up in business explicitly to accommodate the new opportunities of this technology, and these are having a lasting effect on managerial practice. The full implications of this technology-driven development have not been appreciated by organizations, which in absorbing technological systems, are tolerating a great drain on their resources.
The efficacy of computers is predicated on the acceptance of some very specific perspectives. A growing discontent and disappointment with their limited achievements is our reason for advocating a different point of view. We will discuss how a shift in perspective, particularly in respect to the perception of uncertainty, will affect thinking and practice in the field of management support systems. We will render our view of the application of computerized decision support systems (DSS), and especially, we will focus on the beliefs and assumptions that have shaped this technology thus far. To this end we will discuss the concept of uncertainty, by juxtaposing current thinking and practice with our understanding of the context of its application. Finally, we will place our understanding of uncertainty in a managerial context and explain the implications this would have for strategists.     

Extrapolation of fuzzy values from incomplete data bases

This paper presents different approaches which enable a data base management system to obtain a plausible fuzzy estimate for an attribute value of an item for which the information is not explicitly stored in the data base. This can be made either by a kind of analogical reasoning from information about particular items or by means of expert rules which specify the (fuzzy) sets of possible values of the attribute under consideration, for various classes of items. Another kind of expert rules enables the system to compute an estimate from the attribute value of another item provided that, in other respects, this latter item sufficiently resembles the item, the value of which we are interested in; then these expert rules are used either for controlling the analogical reasoning process or for enlarging the scope of application of the first kind of expert rules. The different approaches are discussed in the framework of possibility theory.     

Growth Stresses in the Oxide Scales on TiAl Alloys at 800 and 900°C

In the oxidation of TiAl alloys, the role of scale-growth stresses formed during oxidation has, thus far, been unknown. In the present paper the oxide-growth stresses were investigated by the deflection-test method in monofacial oxidation (DTMO) accompanied by acoustic-emission measurements. On unmodified surfaces the growth stresses are compressive and reach levels of around –100 MPa. At the same time, significant acoustic emission occurs indicating that even under isothermal conditions, stresses are relieved by a scale-cracking mechanism. For oxide scales on TiAl surfaces, which had been ion implanted with chlorine before oxidation, a very thin protective alumina layer is formed which, however, develops growth stresses in the range of several GPa, accompanied by intensive acoustic emission. In all stress–time curves, a dynamic situation is observed. This consists of phases of stress relief by scale microcracking and phases of stresses increase due to crack healing and further oxide growth. As a result, the level of stress as a function of oxidation time, is characterized by an oscillating course.     

长距离钢带传动的张紧机构设计与应用

比较了几种长距离传动方式的特点与适用场合，重点探讨了实现长距离精密传动的技术要点。结合实际工程，完成了长距离钢带精密传动的应用，并指出张紧机构的设计与应用是钢带实现长距离精密传动的关键。为此文中对钢带传动的典型张紧机构进行了比较，并分析了这几类张紧机构的应用情况，有参考和应用价值。     

现行规范对“锁住区”起点高度简化处理的影响

通过工程实例及理论分析 ,对横向风振“锁住区”问题进行了探讨 ,对《建筑结构荷载规范》(GB5 0 0 0 9— 2 0 0 1 )中有关这一方面内容存在的一些问题进行了分析 ,希望对工程设计人员能有所帮助