新“两法”形势下的钻前工程造价管理

四川盆地地形复杂、水系发达、人口稠密、农林资源丰富,钻前工程实施难度大,安全环保风险高。新的《安全生产法》和《环境保护法》颁布实施后,对钻前工程的作业施工也提出了更高的要求,成本控制难度进一步增大。为此,在分析研究了钻前工程实施关键环节的基础上,提出以下3个方面的改进措施:①优选井位,从源头控制成本;②优化设计、改良技术,最大限度地降低无效工作量,提高投资效益,同时降低环境风险;③创新管理模式,推行总承包制度,压缩管理成本。进而以中国石油西南油气田公司为例,分析了新形势下针对四川盆地油气勘探特点,采取的一系列控制钻前工程造价措施,所取得的良好效果。结论认为,新形势下该公司总体上保持了钻前工程造价的平稳态势,探区钻井成本基本受控,探井钻前工程占钻井结算成本比重、平均单井进尺成本、平均单井新修公路长度和平均单井建设用地数逐年下降,确保了川渝地区油气勘探开发的良好局面。     

Estimating using cost significant global cost models

Cost significant models have been suggested as one way of overcoming criticisms of the amount of detail contained within the traditional bill of quantities. Recent research into these models reveals a lack of formal rules for the selection of work packages to be used within the models, and a potential to overestimate the cost of projects. This paper presents a methodology for selecting work packages, and recommends a refinement to the technique that reduces the variability in estimates produced using cost significance. Estimates are produced using both the traditional method of producing cost significant models, and a refined global cost methodology. Both techniques are tested against unpriced bills to measure the difference in results, with significant improvements being achieved with the new technique.     

Reducing the use of resources in medium-sized Swedish construction enterprises: production managers’ views

What construction firms do—and do not do—to reduce the use of resources in construction projects is explored by adopting production managers’ views of their firms’ onsite activities. A literature review and empirical data are combined; 15 production managers have been asked how they perceived their company’s compliance with 31 recommendations to reduce the use of resources. The managers perceived their firms to primarily focus on identifying their customers’ real needs, stimulating employees to undertake further education, and striving for long-term customer–supplier relationships. In contrast, they perceived that less attention was directed to making use of all of the week’s hours, to supporting their main suppliers in their development, and planning feedback and training after project completion. The use of resources is examined by focusing on the perceived low priority given to gathering information and knowledge, as well as to reducing time and the need for long-term relationships with customers in contrast to short-term relationships with suppliers. The managers adopted a project-specific approach mainly to the use of material resources. A more holistic view of resources could enable the development of novel solutions in construction.     

The principal factors affecting construction project overhead expenses: an exploratory factor analysis approach

Estimation is the first step in the project development process. Information technology provides an efficient platform for estimators to obtain quotations and specifications for their bid estimates. However, in practice, project overhead estimation relies heavily on the professional judgement and intuition of the estimators. This reduces the overall accuracy and reliability of the bid and a better understanding of the factors affecting project overheads is fundamental before any improved estimating methods can be devised. Unfortunately, the published literature on this topic is very limited. Using exploratory factor analysis, we aim to bridge the current knowledge gap by highlighting the principal factors affecting project overheads. Questionnaires detailing 27 variables were sent to quantity surveying managers of large contractors in Hong Kong. Seventy-nine valid responses were analysed by exploratory factor analysis. From the results, eight factors were extracted with their latent properties identified with reference to the expert opinions collected from telephone interviews. The findings clarify some misconceptions about the factors affecting project overheads and provide useful evidence for practitioners and researchers to understand project overheads. Estimators who address the identified factors when assessing future project overhead costs can improve the accuracy of their cost estimates and project budgets.     

Practices,barriers and benefits of risk management process in building services costs estimation: comment

This note is a comment on Mok, C.K., Rao Tummala, V.M. and Leung, H.M. (1997) Practices, barriers and benefits of risk management process in building services cost estimation, Construction Management and Economics, 15 (2), 161–75, which describes research into the risk perceptions and risk management practices of building services engineers in Hong Kong. The note questions statements made in the paper and parts of the research design and data analyses.     

Total project cost: a simplified model for decision makers

A simplified model for total project cost is developed in this paper to meet the numerous requests from decision makers for a model that can be used to estimate the total project cost from the estimated cash flows and, more importantly, to check the accuracy of the project cost estimates in feasibility studies that require prudent decisions. It begins with a base cost estimate in constant dollars and discrete cash flows with discrete inflation rates as practised by the construction industry. The discrete inflation rates are used to estimate the current dollar costs of the project. The effects of inflation are estimated as escalation during construction. Using the future value concept, interest during construction is estimated, in a simplified approach, to estimate the total project cost. Data from an actual feasibility study is used to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the simplified model. The model is extended to treat discrete cash flows with continuous inflation rates.     

Application of a constrained non-linear hydraulic gradient design tool to water reticulation network upgrade

Southern Africa has embarked on substantial expansion of its water supply network in order to ensure safe, reliable, convenient and sufficient water for everyone. To achieve this, new systems are being built and many existing systems are being upgraded. The upgrade of many existing systems is required for two reasons: some currently functional systems may run dry if subjected to additional demands as these systems were not initially designed to cater for such demand, and some systems are currently non- or sub-functional as they were ill-designed and/or ill-implemented from inception. Many of the systems that require upgrade are underdesigned due to a lack of skill, tools and/or knowledge of designers, or from other extraneous factors (e.g., illegal connections and sabotage). It is hardly surprising therefore that the failures of water projects in developing countries are recorded to be as high as 80%. Ill-designed systems increase operation and maintenance costs significantly. In especially Southern Africa, designers require simple, yet rigorously tested tools to facilitate sustainable, yet cost-effective network designs. Presented in this paper is a simple, yet robust constrained non-linear hydraulic gradient network reticulation design tool. The design tool is calibrated using the New York City water supply problem that has served as a benchmark problem for other models and then applied to the Selebi – Phikwe (SP) water reticulation network (WRN) in Botswana, which was designed based on engineering judgement. The optimization algorithm employed in the design tool is based on the concept that a hypothetical hydraulic gradient for a hydraulically balanced WRN exists that, when achieved iteratively, produces optimal pipe sizes and an optimal flow relation between each pipe. The unique problems and challenges of the SP WRN (pressure deficiencies in sections of the existing network and the proposed addition of three new residential developments) required determining the most appropriate peak and night flow operating scenarios, and optimal pipe sizes for the proposed expansion of the network. Optimization by trial and error had been previously employed in the design of the SP WRN—a common practice amongst water system designers, and the results are compared with those generated with the design tool. The design tool achieved a 62% reduction in total pipe cost from that obtained by trial and error for the SP WRN problem. At the same time, the design tool gives comparable pipe costs to those published in literature for the New York City water supply tunnels problem.     

永磁同步电机优化模型预测双转矩控制

针对永磁同步电机模型预测转矩控制计算量大、权重系数难以确定和转矩脉动大的问题,提出优化模型预测双转矩控制方法。该方法用有功转矩和无功转矩双转矩代替磁链和转矩的代价函数,从而简化系统结构。构建具有预测-校正功能的补偿函数,对补偿函数进行校正,降低延时问题产生的影响。在此基础上,加入扇区判断环节,将待选电压从8个减为3个,大大减少计算量。仿真结果表明:优化模型预测双转矩控制方法转矩脉动更低、计算量更小、动态响应更快。     

一种新型低成本阻燃钛合金的微观组织与力学性能

研究了一种名义成分为Ti-25V-15Cr-5Mo-0.25Si-0.08C的新型低成本阻燃钛合金TF-X,通过三次真空自耗熔炼制备了φ120mm铸锭,经包套挤压得到φ25mm棒材,观察了铸锭和挤压棒材的微观组织,测试并分析了挤压棒材的室温和高温拉伸性能、热稳定性能、高温蠕变性能。结果表明：TF-X合金具有与TF550合金大致相同的微观组织;TF-X合金室温及高温拉伸强度高于TF550合金,并且具有很好的塑性;试验条件下,TF-X合金的热稳定性能低于TF550合金,熔炼过程中应该严格控制氧含量;TF-X合金在540℃/250MPa/100h条件下蠕变性能与TF550合金相当,显著高于Ti40合金。