Upsetting the apple cart? Export fruit production,water pollution and social unrest in the Elgin Valley,South Africa

ABSTRACT

This article explores the encounter between two contrasting visions of how the hydrosocial territory of the Elgin Valley of South Africa is, and should be, constituted and the conflicts over water pollution this gives rise to. It studies how poor urban dwellers try to upset the status quo of unequal access to land and water, which is linked to broader, historically entrenched, inequalities. White commercial farmers have succeeded in upholding the dominant hydro-territorial order by emphasizing the economic importance of their sector, by reducing complex political issues to technical challenges, and by capturing ‘democratic’ water institutions.     

Presidential intervention and the changing ‘politics of survival’ in Kampala’s informal economy

In theory, ‘urban governance’ involves non-state actors and the state working together in formally institutionalized ways to make collective decisions and provide urban services. However, in developing country cities with highly informalized economies, the processes that underpin ‘real’ governance often reflect informal bargaining power much more than formal institutional frameworks. This paper uses the case of Uganda’s capital Kampala to explore how political configurations subvert structures of city governance, with particular attention to the increasing engagement between President Museveni and particular groups of informal workers. We present empirical research on market vendors and motorcycle taxi (boda–boda) drivers showing how this engagement benefits both the informal groups and the president. Increased political competition has created an environment where informal groups seeking to protect their livelihoods can tactically leverage a presidential intervention in their favour, helping them evade the policies and regulations of the City Council. Meanwhile, the president has used these interventions to build support in a city that was largely lost to the opposition. These processes have progressively undermined already weak formal institutions for urban governance.     

东海陆架盆地大春晓油气田成藏动力学特征及成藏模式

油气成藏动力学是动力学研究的前沿，大春晓油气田成藏动力学是东海陆架盆地油气成藏特征研究的热点，也是长期研究薄弱环节。通过井震解释和数值模拟，分析了大春晓油气田成藏动力学三大能量场：温度场、压力场和应力场的成藏动力学要素特征。研究表明区内具有地温梯度高特点，达36~40 ℃/km，且发现60个岩浆侵入岩，导致局部增温作用促进油气成藏；烃源岩热成熟度不一致性明显，数值模拟结果表明，早期大春晓地区东北部和东南部成熟度高，其中，天外天构造和春晓-断桥构造烃源岩成熟时间最晩，大春晓构造烃源岩晚成熟；早、中期NNE向拉张应力场产生拉张正断层，有利于油气运移和保存；晩期NWW向张剪性应力场所形成平移断层有利于油气保存。区内发育典型超压并存在大型超压囊，提出了超压-压力囊模式，超压与断裂体系促进了油气运移。采用数值模拟技术阐述油气运移的时代、过程与结果。通过大春晓油气田含油气系统关键时刻和事件、成藏动力学机制与过程综合分析，建立了大春晓油气田成藏动力学模式和成藏模式。     

Trends of energy demand in the Middle East: A sectoral level analysis

The Middle East region is a key player in the world energy market today. It holds approximately over 50% of the world's proven fossil fuel reserves. Yet, the region is significantly challenged by the large dependence on finite fossil fuel resources in its primary energy supply. The intricate relationship between climate change mitigation and the development of energy systems underlines great uncertainty over the future of energy development in the Middle East. Such uncertainty is greatly linked to growing energy demands and the region's capacity to transition to low‐carbon energy systems. Over the past 20 years, the total primary energy demand in the Middle has almost tripled due to rapid population growth and economic development. Notably, most of the growing energy demand was concentrated in 5 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. These 5 countries represented around 82% of the total primary energy demand in 2015, with Saudi Arabia and Iran alone accounted for 60%. The core question of this paper is what are the possible implications of growing energy demands in these countries and which sectors will entail significant increases in the projected energy requirements? The significance of the work presented here stems from analyzing 4 major countries that constitute the largest share in Middle East's total energy consumption and associated emissions. Examining these 4 countries together is important to highlight how future increase in these countries could largely affect the overall energy demand from the Middle East region in the next 20 years. Thus, the scope of the paper is looking at energy demand implications in 4 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Iraq is excluded from the analysis due to the large political uncertainty associated with Iraq's energy development. Here, a regression model is used to forecast energy demand from 5 economic sectors across the 4 countries using projected increase in population and gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Results indicate that most of the projected energy demand will be from Iran and Saudi Arabia. In addition, industry and transportation sectors will witness the largest increase among the 5 sectors examined in the paper. For instance, industry and transportation sector will collectively account for 52% and 67% of the projected energy demand in Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Such results are important to highlight when ascertaining sectoral level implications of future energy demands and to determine potential areas where energy savings can be made.     

The effect of changes in condom usage and antiretroviral treatment coverage on human immunodeficiency virus incidence in South Africa: a model-based analysis

This study aims to assess trends in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in South Africa, and to assess the extent to which prevention and treatment programmes have reduced HIV incidence. Two models of the South African HIV epidemic, the STI (sexually transmitted infection)–HIV Interaction model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model, were adapted. Both models were fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic surveys and household surveys, using a Bayesian approach. Both models suggest that HIV incidence in 15–49 year olds declined significantly between the start of 2000 and the start of 2008: by 27 per cent (95% CI: 21–32%) in the STI–HIV model and by 31 per cent (95% CI: 23–39%) in the ASSA2003 model, when expressed as a percentage of incidence rates in 2000. By 2008, the percentage reduction in incidence owing to increased condom use was 37 per cent (95% CI: 34–41%) in the STI–HIV model and 23 per cent (95% CI: 14–34%) in the ASSA2003 model. Both models also estimated a small reduction in incidence owing to antiretroviral treatment by 2008. Increased condom use therefore appears to be the most significant factor explaining the recent South African HIV incidence decline.     

Consumer valuation of improved rice parboiling technologies in Benin

In Benin, traditional parboiling is still widely practiced among rice processors, resulting in inferior grain quality. A new parboiler was introduced to improve the milling yield and intrinsic quality of local rice. We conducted Vickrey second price auctions to elicit rural Beninese consumers’ willingness to pay for rice obtained through the new parboiler and two locally innovated parboilers. The individual auctions were followed by a group discussion during which consensus was reached on socially acceptable prices. Relative to traditionally parboiled rice, consumers were willing to pay price premiums of 9-13% for rice obtained through a local parboiler using a container of which the bottom is a perforated metal, 27% for rice obtained through a local parboiler using wooden sticks at the bottom of the pot, and 25-34% for rice parboiled through the improved parboiler. Bids were influenced by the presentation order of the products according to perceived quality. Bids were also higher when participants had been informed on the benefits of improved parboiling techniques, which is a crucial insight for developing marketing and communication strategies for this improved quality product. Group bids were not significantly different from individual bids which suggests that the latter are within the range of socially acceptable prices defined through group consensus.     

Evaluating Ecological,Subcultural and Political Approaches to Neighbourhood Change and Neighbourhood Poverty

Various metatheories are applied to explain neighbourhood change and neighbourhood poverty. Ecological approaches view these as a deterministic, evolutionary process of market competition amongst mobile social groups. Subcultural approaches view these as the product of a complex interaction of both endogenous psychological factors and exogenous economic, social and demographic factors. Political approaches view these as a spatial side effect of the unequal ownership of the means and modes of production, and skewed power relations. Statistical analysis indicates that a range of significant factors shared between different metatheoretical approaches explains neighbourhood change or neighbourhood poverty. This supports the trend in a convergence and hybridization of metatheory. The diverse approaches sufficiently explain common changes, but the low explanatory power of the models indicates that idiosyncratic factors are as or more important in explaining individual neighbourhood changes. Neighbourhood poverty is not a significant factor influencing changes in neighbourhoods, although other pecuniary measures are.     

Technology adoption and household food security among rural households in South Africa: The role of improved maize varieties

This study aimed to assess the impact of adoption of improved maize varieties on household food security among smallholder farmers in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A sample of 415 maize producers was analysed using the propensity score matching method, the treatment effect model and the Tobit selection model. The results were consistent across the models, indicating that improved maize varieties positively increased household food security, and that the impact of adoption differed according to the adoption level and socio-economic characteristics of the farmers. The results showed that an additional 1 ha of land under improved maize varieties increases annual food expenditure per capita levels by over R4000. Female farmers were more likely to adopt improved maize varieties, and spent more to ensure household food security, and benefitted more from adoption, than their male counterparts. The findings suggest that policies that seek to increase the land under improved maize varieties among smallholder farmers, especially female farmers who are the majority of these farmers, can play a significant and positive role in increasing the levels of household food security in South Africa through technological innovations. The study recommends that policy makers should aim to facilitate the dissemination of less costly improved seed varieties, target female farmers, and improve their access to information to improve the adoption of technological innovations and food security among the poor farming households in South Africa.     

东亚现代城市之始——英系租界与居留地的殖民主义规划及管理比较研究

从口岸体系和殖民主义比较角度研究沪鹭穗津汉浔镇等英系租界与居留地的规划及管理。巴夏礼对英系口岸、租界和居留地的开辟、规划、管理和现代化起关键作用。它们受英驻东亚外交体系管控,遵循类似的英系殖民主义空间规划与城市管理模式。公使和工部局颁布的市政与建筑法规确保了高效的殖民主义空间生成。殖民主义影响、口岸体系互动推动了近代东亚城市空间的外来与自主现代化。跨文化的空间共同体遗存是潜在的系列世界遗产。     

The role of openness in the effect of ICT on governance*

ABSTRACT

The study investigates how openness influences information and communication technology (ICT) penetration for improved government quality in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000–2012. Openness is measured in terms of trade and financial globalization whereas ICT is proxied with mobile phone and internet penetration rates. Ten bundled and unbundled governance indicators are used. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments with forward orthogonal deviations. The main findings are First, financial openness has an edge over trade openness when combined with ICT to affect both economic and institutional governance. Second, mobile phones have an edge over internet penetration in complementing (i) trade openness for economic governance and (ii) financial openness for institutional governance. Third, net effects on political governance are consistently negative. Taken together, in the short-run, openness-driven ICT policies are more rewarding in terms of economic and institutional governance than political governance. Fourth, catch-up in governance is facilitated by the interaction between openness and ICT. Contributions of these findings to literature are discussed.