地震资料预测地层破裂压力的方法

介绍了利用地震资料预测地层破裂压力的方法。该法主要是先从地震资料中提取地层速度 ,然后预测地层孔隙压力 ,在此基础上按一定的模式进行地层破裂压力的预测。该方法在塔里木和吐哈油田两个构造上应用 ,预测精度达 90 %以上 ,能满足工程需要。     

模糊模式判别在油气预测中的应用

通过对泌阳凹陷前杜楼地区北部断块 98- 1井区资料的分析 ,设立隶属函数 ,建立模糊判别模式 ,对 98- 1区的 7个砂层进行模糊判别 ,获得了较好的效果。     

复合型智能预测分析系统框架研究

提出了多元支持向量机思想及其实现过程,并将其与粗糙集与神经网络相结合,提出一种复合型智能预测分析系统框架。首先利用粗糙集对预测的原始数据进行处理,并从中发现隐含知识,然后提出了多元支持向量机,能够有效地对两种以上类型的数据进行精确分类。将两者与神经网络有机地结合起来,构成一种复合型预测分析系统,从而为决策分析提供一种新的方法。     

一种实用的供电可靠性预测评估算法

可靠性指标是定量评价电力系统对客户供电能力的一个重要参数。该文采用故障率、设备修复时间等一些实际运行参数，对规划设计好的配电网络进行可靠性指标预测，以便对可靠性指标进行分解，科学合理地进行可靠性管理工作。利用该算法还可以对现有配电网络图进行可靠性评估。实例计算验证了该算法的有效性和适用性。     

An application of OWA operators in fuzzy business diagnosis

The paper aims to develop an adjustment index based on OWA operators to enrich the results of diagnostic fuzzy models of business failure. A proposal to verify the diseases prediction accuracy of the models is also added. This allows a reduction of the map of causes or diseases detected in strategic defined areas. At the same time, these key areas can be disaggregated when an alert indicator is identified, and shows which of the causes need special attention. This application of OWA can encourage the development of suitable computer systems for monitoring companies’ problems, warn of failures and facilitate decision-making. In addition, taking Vigier and Terceño’s 2008 model as a benchmark, causes aggregation operators are introduced to evaluate alternative groupings, and the adjustment measure using approximate solutions is proposed to test the model’s prediction.The empirical estimation and the verification of the improvement proposals in a set of small and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs) in the construction industry are also presented. The functionality and the prediction capacity are thus measured and detected by monitoring key areas that warn about insolvency situations in the firm.     

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.     

煤矿开采沉陷移动变形预测

为了预测评价开采沉陷对矿区环境的影响,正确选择环境保护措施,必须对开采沉陷引起的地表下沉、倾斜、曲率、水平变形等移动变形值、地表移动持续的时间和最大下沉速度、开采沉陷的范围、冒落带和导水裂隙带的高度以及采动过程中地表移动变形等进行预测,本文将介绍几种预测方法.     

声发射技术在预测预报煤与瓦斯突出方面的研究

煤与瓦斯突出是煤矿最严重的自然灾害之一。为了尽可能减轻其危害．多年来我国在突出危险性预测方面开展了大量的工作,特别是在应用工作面钻孔参数预测突出的方法和仪器装备方面都有明显的进展,取得了一些实用成果。但这种预测方法仍有一定的工程量（如需要打钻孔等）,每次预测作业时间需要4～5h,不仅对生产有一定影响。而且有一定的危险．不能满足现场需要。     

大坝下游河道水温变化规律及其影响

以汉江凡口水库为例,讨论了河流上建坝以后下游河道的水温变化情况及其对周围环境正负两方面的影响。根据实测资料,以附近天然河道的水温为主要因子,建立了河道主要断面的水温预测方程。