Implications of using clean technologies to power selected ASEAN countries

This paper focuses on energy system development of the three largest Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam. The energy infrastructures in these counties are in the process of rapid development and, therefore, technology choices are critical. Applying the energy system model MARKAL and scenario analysis, this paper examines and quantifies the role of clean and advanced energy technologies for efficient local resource exploitation and improving energy security and environmental conditions. The main focus is on the power sector and the paper also addresses the potential ASEAN markets for European energy technologies.     

Natural gas‐based transportation in the USA: economic evaluation and policy implications based on MARKAL modeling

The recent divergence in domestic energy costs between oil and natural gas drives an investigation of the potential for further demand‐side utilization of natural gas in the USA. An economic assessment of the US transportation sector was conducted with a focus on the penetration of technologies that use natural gas as a fuel. Bottom‐up modeling of the US energy system using the market allocation framework enabled estimation of the optimal technology mix in both the light‐duty and heavy‐duty vehicle segments, over a 40‐year time horizon, under various scenarios of technical learning rates and natural gas prices. A modified functional form of Moore's law was developed and anchored to municipal transit bus data, to represent technical learning with regard to natural gas vehicle costs. Modeling results suggest that the present levels of natural gas vehicle penetration are suboptimal and a number of market failures were identified, which are most likely to propagate under‐adoption into the foreseeable future. Some policy guidelines, aimed at the federal level, were outlined as potential responses to the market failures discussed herein. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The development and application of a temporal MARKAL energy system model using flexible time slicing

Detailed temporal consideration has been a major challenge for energy systems models with typical time horizons of years and decades. This presents particular issues in investigating electricity generation, capacity and storage, whilst retaining broader trade-offs sectors, technology pathways and timing of investments. This paper reports on a methodology for temporal disaggregation in the widely applied energy service driven, technology rich, cost optimizing, linear programming MARKAL energy system model. A flexible time slicing feature is developed to enhance representation of diurnal and seasonal electricity demand curves through disaggregation of resource availability and energy service demands. In a first application of a temporal UK MARKAL model, a range of runs investigate the role of electricity storage at supply and demand sides. The results display considerably enhanced insights, notably on the role and preference of demand-side electricity storage over supply-side storage. On average, the system chooses about 7–10% of electricity demand as storage. On the supply side, hydrogen-based electricity storage is greatly preferred but stored-hydrogen is used in the transport sector rather than for power system balancing mechanism.     

The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing,Guangdong and Shanghai: An assessment utilizing MARKAL

Natural gas could possibly become a si0gnificant portion of the future fuel mix in China. However, there is still great uncertainty surrounding the size of this potential market and therefore its impact on the global gas trade. In order to identify some of the important factors that might drive natural gas consumption in key demand areas in China, we focus on three regions: Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai. Using the economic optimization model MARKAL, we initially assume that the drivers are government mandates of emissions standards, reform of the Chinese financial structure, the price and available supply of natural gas, and the rate of penetration of advanced power generating and end-use. The results from the model show that the level of natural gas consumption is most sensitive to policy scenarios, which strictly limit SO₂ emissions from power plants. The model also revealed that the low cost of capital for power plants in China boosts the economic viability of capital-intensive coal-fired plants. This suggests that reform within the financial sector could be a lever for encouraging increased natural gas use.     

Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model

China is striving for coordinated regional economic development and to solve the energy shortage in eastern China through a western China development plan with one focus being energy development and west to east energy transfer. This paper describes Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model (WSED) to evaluate various energy development scenarios for western China. The model includes a Western China MARKAL model, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Western China (WCGE), and an Energy Service Demand Projection Model (ESDP). The ESDP provides energy service demand projections for the Western China MARKAL model, while the WCGE provides macroeconomic inputs for the ESDP and analyzes the impact of different energy development scenarios on western China economy. A reference scenario and several different west to east energy transfer scenarios with and without consideration of the water constraints and the endogenous technology learning are presented. The modeling describes the energy consumption, carbon emissions, water consumption, energy investment cost, and the impact on western China GDP of the different scenarios through the year 2050. These results have implications on sustainable energy development policies and sustainable west to east energy transfer strategies.     

Market penetration analysis of hydrogen vehicles in Norwegian passenger transport towards 2050

The Norwegian energy system is characterized by high dependency on electricity, mainly hydro power. If the national targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases should be met, a substantial reduction of CO₂ emissions has to be obtained from the transport sector. This paper presents the results of the analyses of three Norwegian regions with the energy system model MARKAL during the period 2005–2050. The MARKAL models were used in connection with an infrastructure model H2INVEST. The analyses show that a transition to a hydrogen fuelled transportation sector could be feasible in the long run, and indicate that with substantial hydrogen distribution efforts, fuel cell cars can become competitive compared to other technologies both in urban (2025) and rural areas (2030). In addition, the result shows the importance of the availability of local energy resources for hydrogen production, like the advantages of location close to chemical industry or surplus of renewable electricity.     

An assessment of alternative carbon mitigation policies for achieving the emissions reduction of the Clean Power Plan: Case study for the state of Indiana

National carbon mitigation policy included in the Clean Power Plan (CPP) targets electric power generation facilities and may have substantial impacts at the national level. The subnational impacts will vary because the level of dependence on coal for electricity generation varies substantially across states. Indiana represents a state where the CPP impacts may be relatively large due to heavy dependence on coal for electricity generation. Therefore, this paper presents analysis of the efficacy and cost of alternative approaches to carbon mitigation policy, taking Indiana as an example.A state-level energy system model, IN-MARKAL, was developed based on the MARKAL framework to explore alternative policy scenarios. Results show that a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is relatively cost effective in achieving carbon emissions reduction for Indiana from the perspective of the power system alone, but that the RPS may also lead to a generation mix dominated by coal and wind. Carbon cap and carbon tax outperform the RPS when considering the entire energy system modeled in IN-MARKAL, which also lead to a more diverse generation portfolio for the state.     

Allocation of energy resources for power generation in India: Business as usual and energy efficiency

This paper deals with MARKAL allocations for various energy sources, in India, for Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and for the case of exploitation of energy saving potential in various sectors of economy. In the BAU scenario, the electrical energy requirement will raise up to 5000 bKwh units per year or 752 GW of installed capacity with major consumers being in the industry, domestic and service sectors. This demand can be met by a mix of coal, hydro, nuclear and wind technologies. Other reneawbles i.e. solar and biomass will start contributing from the year 2040 onwards. By full exploitation of energy saving potential, the annual electrical energy demand gets reduced to 3061 bKwh (or 458 GW), a reduction of 38.9%.The green house gas emissions reduce correspondingly. In this scenario, market allocations for coal, gas and large hydro become stagnant after the year 2015.     

Renewable energy for sustainable electrical energy system in India

Present trends of electrical energy supply and demand are not sustainable because of the huge gap between demand and supply in foreseeable future in India. The path towards sustainability is exploitation of energy conservation and aggressive use of renewable energy systems. Potential of renewable energy technologies that can be effectively harnessed would depend on future technology developments and breakthrough in cost reduction. This requires adequate policy guidelines and interventions in the Indian power sector. Detailed MARKAL simulations, for power sector in India, show that full exploitation of energy conservation potential and an aggressive implementation of renewable energy technologies lead to sustainable development. Coal and other fossil fuel (gas and oil) allocations stagnated after the year 2015 and remain constant up to 2040. After the year 2040, the requirement for coal and gas goes down and carbon emissions decrease steeply. By the year 2045, 25% electrical energy can be supplied by renewable energy and the CO₂ emissions can be reduced by 72% as compared to the base case scenario.     

Energy,environmental and economic effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) in a Developing Country

This paper analyses the potential of renewable energy for power generation and its energy, environmental and economic implications in Pakistan, using a bottom up type of long term energy system based on the MARKAL framework. The results show that under a highly optimistic renewable portfolio standard (RPS) of 80%, fossil fuel consumption in 2050 would be reduced from 4660 PJ to 306 PJ, and the GHG emissions would decrease from 489 million tons to 27 million tons. Nevertheless, price of the electricity generation will increase significantly from US$ 47/MWh under current circumstances (in the base case) to US$ 86/MWh under RPS80. However the effects on import dependency, energy-mix diversity, per unit price of electricity generation and cost of imported fuels indicate that, it may not be desirable to go beyond RPS50. Under RPS50 in 2050, fuel consumption of the power sector would reduce from 21% under the base case to 9% of total fossil fuels supplied to the country. It will decrease not only GHG emission to 170 million tons but also will reduce import dependency from 73% under the base case to 21% and improve energy diversity mix with small increase in price of electricity generation (from US$ 47/MWh under the base case to US$ 59/MWh under RPS 50).