Multi-criteria decision support: A case study of Southeast Europe power systems

The power sector has been going through quite turbulent times during the past couple of years. During this time, several long-held tenets of the sector have been rewritten. As new technologies appear and as the surge of renewables dramatically transforms the system, we witness an emergence of new market players and possibilities. With key issues revolving around different problem areas, the importance of taking a multidisciplinary view on forming development strategies proves crucial in achieving desired outcomes. Having a detailed understanding of the dynamics underpinning energy markets is crucial for both decision-makers and investors. Forming a successful development strategy or a policy framework requires reconciling a string of technical, environmental, economic and social factors. Choosing the right combination of policies and technologies could fuel economic growth while still providing secure and affordable energy in line with low-carbon goals. In this light, we take Southeast Europe (SEE) as a practical example and study various questions regarding legal frameworks and development policies of countries in the region. The methodology structure allows considering environmental, economic, technology and policy issues. Each country's electricity sector is evaluated using a comprehensive database, with particular consideration to its affordability, self-reliance and sustainability. This study presents an overview to help clarify some of the aspects behind forming a successful framework capable of making the right decisions for the future.     

Population growth away from the coastal zone: Thirty years of land use change and nutrient export in the Altamaha River, GA

We used more than thirty years of water quality monitoring data collected by the United States Geological Survey at several stations in the Altamaha River and its tributaries to examine the relationship between population density, agricultural land use, and nutrient export from the watershed. Population densities in the Altamaha River watershed increased during the study period, most notably in the upper watershed near metropolitan Atlanta, while agricultural land use declined throughout the watershed. NO_x, TN and P in rivers were related to human population densities, while OC and NH₄⁺ concentrations in rivers were apparently related to agricultural land use. A general pattern of increasing NO_x and TN and decreasing NH₄⁺, P and OC over time throughout the watershed reflected changing population and land use. The overall average load from the Altamaha River to the coastal zone during the study period was 1.1, 5.6, 16.9, 0.9 and 262 kmol km^− 2 yr^− 1, delivering 40, 197, 596, 30, and 9213 · 10⁶ mol yr^− 1 of NH₄⁺, NO_x, TN, P and OC, respectively, to the coastal zone. The nutrient export patterns suggest that N and P loading to rivers in the Altamaha River watershed was greatest in the upper watershed where high population densities were found, and in-stream processing, dilution, and only moderate inputs during transit through the lower watershed resulted in relatively low export from the watershed to coastal waters.     

Palm Oil: A New Ethics of Visibility for the Production Landscape

The explosion of the palm oil industry in recent decades has transformed vast swathes of the Malaysian and Indonesian countryside. Milica Topalovic , Assistant Professor of Architecture and Territorial Planning at ETH Zurich, asserts that the resulting agro-industrial landscapes challenge the very concept of what is rural, and considers how such areas should be conceptualised.     

东南大学城市规划专业三年级设计教学改革实践

为了实现从建筑设计教学到规划设计教学的良性过渡,促使学生尽早领会城市规划的设计思维模式和方法,提高教学效率,东南大学城市规划专业三年级教学团队进行了以“培育理性、激发热情”为目标的教学改革。     

东南亚民居建筑类型研究

东南亚民居建筑是世界建筑文化遗产中不可或缺的一部分,它既是东南亚各族人民智慧的结晶,又是东南亚地域文化的重要表现和社会历史的主要见证。文章试图引入生物学的研究理念,寻找东南亚民居建筑的传统基因,总结形式多样的民居建筑形态,以期对东南亚地域性现代建筑的创作有所启示。     

东南亚八国天然气市场供需与管制现状

八个东南亚天然气资源国按照储量差异可分为三类,第一类是储量相对丰富的国家,包括印尼、马来西ⅢE和东帝汶,2012年底印尼和马来西亚的天然气剩余可采储量分别为2．93×10^12m3和1．32×10^12m3。2012年印尼天然气产量为7lO．7×10。In’,国内消费量358．1×10^8m3;同年马来西亚生产天然气652．4×10^8m3,国内消费量333．3×10^8m3。第二类是天然气储量处于中等水平的泰国、越南、文莱和缅甸,截至2012年底,四国天然气剩余可采储量分别为0．28×10^12m3、0．62×10^12m3、0．29×10^12m3和0．22×10^12m3：2012年四国天然气产量分别为413．9×10^8m3、94．0×10^8m3、125．7×10^8m3和127．3×10^m3。第三类是储量相对较小的菲律宾,2007～2011年其天然气产量与消费量始终维持在1000×10^8ft3上下。文莱、缅甸、东帝汶的天然气主要用于出口,越南、泰国、菲律宾以供应本国市场为主,马来西亚、印尼内需与外需能基本兼顾。缅甸和东帝汶的出口量将随着新项目的落实逐渐扩大：文莱和印尼的出口量将围绕某一水平波动：马来西亚价格管制政策的调整,将决定其出口量的变化以及能否逐步减少天然气的进口量;越南在LNG供应链建设完成后进口量将出现较快增长;菲律宾如果不改革管制政策,天然气的消费增长将停滞。     

乌兹别克斯坦水资源变化及其对供给压力的影响

梳理文献资料,结合农业、遥感和气象水文产品数据,分析乌兹别克斯坦水资源变化及水资源供给压力。分析表明:自1980年以来,乌兹别克斯坦年平均取水量由59亿m~3增至102亿m~3,灌溉农业消耗了90%以上的水资源;尽管1992年以来耕地面积总体呈下降态势(200km~2/a),且高耗水作物种植比重下降(-3.24%),但受气候变暖的影响(0.31℃/(10a)),单位面积作物需水量持续增加(3.27mm/a),导致总的需水量仍呈增加态势(2.75亿m~3/a);与此同时,上游来水量减少以及上游国家用水的增加,将进一步加剧区域水资源短缺及供给压力。为应对水资源问题,乌兹别克斯坦需加强水管理,改进灌溉技术,提高用水效率,同时,需寻求完善跨境河流水资源分配与管理的途径。该研究有助于增进对乌兹别克斯坦水资源问题的认识,并为应对该问题提供科学依据,以及为"一带一路"合作发展提供支撑。     

亚太能源供应受制中东 中亚能否占据一席之地?

在分析了亚太地区能源供需形势、尤其对作为亚太地区最大能源供应方的中东进行分析的基础上,指出中亚作为亚太地区新的能源供应方的可能性。由于亚太地区对石油进口依赖性的增长,中东作为重要的油气输出方,其地位会进一步提升,与此同时,中亚的能源供应潜力越来越多的得到世界的关注,其在亚太的能源战略中将占有更重要的地位。     

亚太地区石油制品需求形势分析

据估算,与2001年相比,2002年亚太地区石油制品需求的增长值为215千桶/天,其中中国的需求增长量占总增长量的65%(与上年相比,中国在2002年的增长值为140千桶/天)。与此同时,尽管由于核电厂问题的影响使得日本更多的开始使用燃料油,但是,日本在石油制品方面的需求仍呈负增长,当年的需求量比起2001年又有减少,减幅达165千桶/天,这对整个亚太地区石油制品需求的增长都产生了负面影响。预计在2003年,日本石油消费市场的低迷形势将有所回升,届时其对石油制品的需求即便不会增长也将不至于继续下跌。这就使得在2003年,亚太地区对石油制品的消费需求可以有进一步增长,年增长率有望回复到相对“正常”的水平上(尽管该值仍低于常规水平),约可达到422千桶/天。从长期来说,中国和印度将成为亚太地区石油制品需求的主要增长国,在2002～2005年,2005～2010年和2010～2015年的三个时期中,他们的需求增长量将占到这一地区需求增长总量34%～37%的比例。与世界其它地区相比,过去的亚太石油消费市场对油价变动并不十分敏感,然而,现在的情况已经今非昔比。由于市场放开,这一地区的消费者远比在5至10年前更能切身的感受到油价变动所带来的影响。因此,正如人们所想象的那样,市场开放后,消费者也开始用行动来抵制高油价,即他们可     

南亚地区油气地质综合研究与区域优选

南亚地区经历冈瓦纳陆内裂陷、冈瓦纳大陆破裂与被动陆缘演化和印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞阶段,形成四大类沉积盆地,包括周缘前陆盆地、被动大陆边缘盆地、大陆裂谷盆地和克拉通盆地。含油气盆地主要分布在印度大陆的东缘和西缘,具有良好的油气地质条件,在层位上集中分布在古近系、新近系和白垩系。盆地类型与演化决定了油气富集规模和时代,有效烃源岩分布控制了油气田的平面分布,储盖组合控制了油气的纵向分布。根据盆地类型和规模、盆地石油地质条件、资源总量和盆地勘探程度等指标对南亚地区沉积盆地进行综合评价,优选出Bombay盆地、Indus盆地、Krishna—Godavari盆地、Bengal盆地、Assam盆地、Cambay盆地、Cauvery盆地、Potwar盆地等有利沉积盆地。