基于集对分析的保障能力薄弱环节改进模型研究

确定保障能力薄弱环节对提高部队保障能力至关重要,目前保障能力薄弱环节确定有指标评估得分法和权重法两种方法,两种方法均存在一定的片面性。针对存在的问题,提出一种基于指标裕度空间和权重的求指标薄弱度的方法查找、确定保障能力薄弱环节,并且将集对分析的思想应用到指标优化和指标裕度空间的分析求取上,使指标薄弱度更加精确。最后结合某基层一级保障单位进行实例,运用Matlab软件仿真模型,进行保障能力指标薄弱度分析,并与目前存在的两种方法对比分析,实践证明所提出的方法更适用于保障能力薄弱环节的确定。     

Recent elevation changes of Svalbard glaciers derived from ICESat laser altimetry

We have tested three methods for estimating 2003-2008 elevation changes of Svalbard glaciers from multi-temporal ICESat laser altimetry: (a) linear interpolation of crossover points between ascending and descending tracks, (b) projection of near repeat-tracks onto common locations using Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), and (c) least-squares fitting of rigid planes to segments of repeat-track data assuming a constant elevation change rate. The two repeat-track methods yield similar results and compare well to the more accurate, but sparsely sampled, crossover points. Most glacier regions in Svalbard have experienced low-elevation thinning combined with high-elevation balance or thickening during 2003-2008. The geodetic mass balance (excluding calving front retreat or advance) of Svalbard's 34,600 km² glaciers is estimated to be −4.3 ± 1.4 Gt y⁻¹, corresponding to an area-averaged water equivalent (w.e.) balance of −0.12 ± 0.04 m w.e. y⁻¹. The largest ice losses have occurred in the west and south, while northeastern Spitsbergen and the Austfonna ice cap have gained mass. Winter and summer elevation changes derived from the same methods indicate that the spatial gradient in mass balance is mainly due to a larger summer season thinning in the west and the south than in the northeast. Our findings are consistent with in-situ mass balance measurements from the same period, confirming that repeat-track satellite altimetry can be a valuable tool for monitoring short term elevation changes of Arctic glaciers.     

A scalable approach to mapping annual land cover at 250 m using MODIS time series data: A case study in the Dry Chaco ecoregion of South America

Land use and land cover (LULC) maps from remote sensing are vital for monitoring, understanding and predicting the effects of complex human-nature interactions that span local, regional and global scales. We present a method to map annual LULC at a regional spatial scale with source data and processing techniques that permit scaling to broader spatial and temporal scales, while maintaining a consistent classification scheme and accuracy. Using the Dry Chaco ecoregion in Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay as a test site, we derived a suite of predictor variables from 2001 to 2007 from the MODIS 250 m vegetation index product (MOD13Q1). These variables included: annual statistics of red, near infrared, and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), phenological metrics derived from EVI time series data, and slope and elevation. For reference data, we visually interpreted percent cover of eight classes at locations with high-resolution QuickBird imagery in Google Earth. An adjustable majority cover threshold was used to assign samples to a dominant class. When compared to field data, we found this imagery to have georeferencing error < 5% the length of a MODIS pixel, while most class interpretation error was related to confusion between agriculture and herbaceous vegetation. We used the Random Forests classifier to identify the best sets of predictor variables and percent cover thresholds for discriminating our LULC classes. The best variable set included all predictor variables and a cover threshold of 80%. This optimal Random Forests was used to map LULC for each year between 2001 and 2007, followed by a per-pixel, 3-year temporal filter to remove disallowed LULC transitions. Our sequence of maps had an overall accuracy of 79.3%, producer accuracy from 51.4% (plantation) to 95.8% (woody vegetation), and user accuracy from 58.9% (herbaceous vegetation) to 100.0% (water). We attributed map class confusion to limited spectral information, sub-pixel spectral mixing, georeferencing error and human error in interpreting reference samples. We used our maps to assess woody vegetation change in the Dry Chaco from 2002 to 2006, which was characterized by rapid deforestation related to soybean and planted pasture expansion. This method can be easily applied to other regions or continents to produce spatially and temporally consistent information on annual LULC.     

Architecture analysis of enterprise systems modifiability - Models, analysis, and validation

Enterprise architecture (EA) models can be used in order to increase the general understanding of enterprise systems and to perform various kinds of analysis. This paper presents instantiated architectural models based on a metamodel for enterprise systems modifiability analysis, i.e. for assessing the cost of making changes to enterprise-wide systems. The instantiated architectural models detailed are based on 21 software change projects conducted at four large Nordic companies. Probabilistic relational models (PRMs) are used for formalizing the EA analysis approach. PRMs enable the combination of regular entity-relationship modeling aspects with means to perform enterprise architecture analysis under uncertainty. The modifiability metamodel employed in the analysis is validated with survey and workshop data (in total 110 experts were surveyed) and with the data collected in the 21 software change projects. Validation indicates that the modifiability metamodel contains the appropriate set of elements. It also indicates that the metamodel produces estimates within a 75% accuracy in 87% of the time and has a mean accuracy of 88% (when considering projects of 2000 man-hours or more).     

灰色理论在古陶瓷断代中的应用

利用模式识别方法可以推测古陶瓷出产年代。将古陶瓷中各化学成分的含量组成一个向量,并与该向量的灰色模型GM(1, 1)参数构成新向量,用于描述古陶瓷样品。以灰色关联度为距离定义,使用近邻法对古陶瓷样品年代进行预测,其留一法预测精度达79.55%。实验结果验证了灰色理论可以用于古陶瓷断代。     

基于最大隶属度的区间概率灰色随机多准则决策方法

定义了一种灰色隶属函数.针对概率为区间数、准则值为区间灰数的灰色随机多准则决策问题,提出一种基于最大隶属度的决策方法.首先,运用区间数可能度排序向量将区间概率转化为点概率,并将其转化为无风险决策问题;然后,计算各方案在负理想方案到正理想方案上的灰色隶属度,并计算各方案准则值的相对灰度,进而根据灰色隶属度和相对灰度大小对方案进行排序;最后,通过算例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.     

Adaptive beam search lookahead algorithms for the circular packing problem

This paper addresses the circular packing problem (CPP), which consists in packing n circles C_i, each of known radius r_i, i∈N={1, …, n}, into the smallest containing circle C. The objective is to determine the radius r of C as well as the coordinates (x_i, y_i) of the center of C_i, i∈N. CPP is solved using two adaptive algorithms that adopt a binary search to determine r, and a beam search to check the feasibility of packing n circles into C when the radius is fixed at r. A node of level ?, ?=1, …, n, of the beam search tree corresponds to a partial packing of ? circles of N into C. The potential of each node of the tree is assessed using a lookahead strategy that, starting with the partial packing of the current node, assigns each unpacked circle to its maximum hole degree position. The beam search stops either when the lookahead strategy identifies a feasible packing or when it has fathomed all nodes. The computational tests on a set of benchmark instances show the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive algorithms.     

基于样本块的破损唐卡图像修复算法的改进

基于样本块的修复算法由于能同时有效地修复图像的受损纹理和结构的优点被引入到唐卡图像的数字化保护中,而且它对特定破损唐卡图像修复效果良好,但是由于优先权计算和最佳样本块不唯一等问题的影响,算法对其他类唐卡图像修复效果不佳。针对此算法的不足,对信任度计算方法和等照线计算方法进行了改进,解决了最佳样本块不唯一的问题。实验结果证明,改进后的算法不仅能够得到令人满意的修复结果而且能够提高修复效率。     

社会网络中紧密度模型分析

针对社会网络中节点的复杂性,以及节点间关系的不确定性,本文采用中心性和凝聚子群对社会网络进行建模分析,并通过MATLAB进行仿真实验验证,从而在复杂的网络中选择出有效的中心节点。通过对节点的管理和利用,实现对整个社会网络管理的科学性,严谨性。通过模型的理论分析,我们可以设想该方法将对社会网络知识的传播,有效信息的发布,社会网络的稳定等起到有的放矢的作用。因而此研究具有良好的实践价值。     

浅谈观念变革与居住形态演变

随着我国经济的快速发展,人们对生活标准和生活质量提出了更高的要求,吃穿住用行等各方面的生活保障设施和生活服务水平也都在不断的改进与发展,而这其中最引人注目的就是住宅的发展变化。在人们追求生活质量高标准的今天,住宅已经不仅仅是人们遮风避雨的场所,也不仅仅是为人们解决温饱问题所提供的保障设施,而是作为人们生活观念变革的重要体现,展现在了我们的面前。因而,研究住宅形态的发展变化与居民生活观念变革之间的关系,对于探寻未来的住宅发展方向,有着重要的意义。