粘弹性本构模型的识别与变形预报

本文针对粘弹性模型，探讨了模型识别方法，首先根据反分析方法确定粘弹性模型的等效弹性模量，然后再确定具体模型的参数，在此基础上进行模型模糊识别；最后对三峡工程高陡边坡稳定性进行了预报分析，计算结果表明文中建立方法的可行性和潜在的应用价值     

基于神经网络的降雨径流预报

本文将人工神经网络应用于二滩水电站以上支流鱼河的降雨径流预报，通过建模、计算、比较和分析可知，其非线性映射能力、自学习能力和灵活性，均能较好地反映降雨径流之间的非线性的、复杂的转换关系，结合流域水文特性并合理处理建模数据，值得进一步深入研究。     

市话程控用户光端机的研制及应用前景

本文从实用化角度,根据今后综合业务数字网(ISDN)发展的需要,着重介绍了市话程控用户光缆中继系统中用户光端机的设计原理、技术特点以及在用户系统中的应用。     

Use of support vector regression and numerically predicted cloudiness to forecast power output of a photovoltaic power plant in Kitakyushu,Japan

The development of a methodology to forecast accurately the power produced by photovoltaic systems can be an important tool for the dissemination and integration of such systems on the public electricity grids. Thus, the objective of this study was to forecast the power production of a 1‐MW photovoltaic power plant in Kitakyushu, Japan, using a new methodology based on support vector machines and on the use of several numerically predicted weather variables, including cloudiness. Hourly forecasts of the power produced for 1 year were carried out. Moreover, the effect of the use of numerically predicted cloudiness on the quality of the forecasts was also investigated. The forecasts of power production obtained with the proposed methodology had a root mean square error of 0.0948 MW h and a mean absolute error of 0.058 MW h. It was also found that the forecast and measured values of power production had a good level of correlation varying from 0.8 to 0.88 according to the season of the year. Finally, the use of numerically predicted cloudiness had an important role in the accuracy of the forecasts, and when cloudiness was not used, the root mean square error of the forecasts increased more than 32%, and the mean absolute error increased more than 42%. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于自适应增量调制的语音延时电路设计

传统的脉冲编码调制需要较长的码,其实现结构复杂。文中介绍了增量调制(DM)的原理,说明了它的优缺点,引入了对它改进后的调制方式——自适应增量调制(ADM)。自适应增量调制不仅集成了DM调制实现结构简单的特点,而且大大降低了DM调制中的量化噪声和斜率过载噪声,性能更为优良。根据ADM的原理,设计了采用自适应增量调制原理的语音延时电路,通过流片验证了其优异的性能,实测延时后的噪声电压为-88dBV,总谐波噪声+失真<0.5%。     

应用计算机加强天气预报信息管理的作用

天气预报,主要是借助卫星等现代化设备,实现对气象信息的检测,通过相关软件和模式的分析,实现对未来天气的预知、探测和发布,以满足人们对气象信息的需要。气象部门在进行天气预报探测过程中,根据计算机技术的运行特点和高效管理,全面运用计算机技术,有利于实现对天气预报信息的科学监测和管理,以推动天气预报技术的全面发展。本文对应用计算机加强天气预报信息管理的作用进行探讨,以实现对天气预报信息管理的全面认识,结合计算机的相关技术,制定合理的应用策略,以提高天气预报信息管理的准确性和科学性,进而促进天气预报技术的发展。     

The Application of the Theory of the Price Elasticity of Demand to the EMS Management

1　Introduction　ExpressMailService (EMS )wasopenedupbyChinaPostintheearly 80stomeettheneedsofeco nomicdevelopment.It sthemostcompetitiveoneofthepostservices.There recivilaviation ,Chinarail wayandotherprivateexpressdeliverycompaniesdomesticallyandUPS ,TNT ,DHLandTEDEXcompetingwithEMSintheinternationalmarket.OneofthemostpowerfulcompeteweaponofthesecompaniesisthelowerpricethanEMS[1 ] .BecauseofthefiercecompetitionEMSdeclinedfromthemo nopolistindomesticandinternationalmarketoftheear…     

移动通信系统数据业务量预测研究

运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,以北京市某运营商移动通信网络数据业务量为样本数据,通过模型预测的移动通信业务量的拟合数据与样本数据基本一致,得到的2020年业务量增长倍数在其他各家机构预测倍数范围之内,从而得出将灰色GM(1,1)模型用于移动通信数据业务量增长趋势的预测是合理的。     

鄱阳湖控制工程对泥沙冲淤影响预测

鄱阳湖人工控制后，因抬高主湖区的年平均水位，湖域水流、泥沙的运行将发生变化，湖盆淤积加快；三峡工程实施运行后，五河主要排沙期的长江水位又将受三峡调节影响，有所抬升．这些对湖区排沙都不利，淤积加速，淤积后果将比原预估的要严重．针对这种情况提出了消除其负作用的设想．     

河道洪水实时预报模型及在寸滩—螺山河段的应用

采用水力学和水文学相结合的方法，根据河道非恒定流的圣维南方程组，建立了河道洪水相应涨至预报模型和扩散波洪水预报模型，既可预报流量，又可预报水位。在模型的实时校正技术中，采用了具有时变遗忘因子的递推最小二乘实时校正算法，提高了参数实时跟踪能力和辨识精度。相应涨差实时预报模型和扩散波实时预报模型在寸滩－螺山河段上的应用均获得较好的效果。