上海电网中长期负荷预测

介绍了上海电网概况,分析了网供负荷特性,以及近期影响上海地区负荷的因素,并使用不同的预测方法给出了中长期负荷和用电量的方案.最后针对上海地区的特点,提出了提高负荷预测准确性和应对本地区电网严峻形势的对策和建议.     

发电侧逐步市场化的竞价新模式

文中针对我国电力工业市场化改革的难点问题，提出了一种适合中国现阶段国情的发电侧逐步市场化的竞价新模式，其核心思想是：在电力市场化的时期，将发电机组划分为市场内，外两组。市场内机组实现竞价上网，市场外仍按核定成本发电，并可保留合同。市场内，外发电负荷的分配比例取决于各组的综合上网电价，该模式可较好地解决历史遗留问题，实现市场内机组竞价负荷的弹性化，平衡系统电价，避免在过短时间内全部市场化所产生的风险，用市场手段引导发电公司逐步走向市场，针对这一新的市场模式，该文建立了相应的模型，并提出了相应的计算方法，该模式和算法已经在实际系统中得到应用，为我国电力市场改革提供了新的思路。     

预测轻柴油冷滤点和凝点的数学模型

建立了一种以柴油组分油的恩氏蒸馏数据为基础的数学关系式,用于预测柴油调合油的冷滤点及凝点。对炼油厂的柴油调合油进行了模拟计算,计算结果表明预测值与实测值有较好的一致性     

油气操作成本预测方法研究

油气操作成本在油气生产中占有较大的比重，油气操作成本的高低直接影响油田开发的经济效益。为了有效地控制油田油气操作成本，根据影响油气操作的因素，将油气操作成本按其影响因素进行分类，对基本运行费和油气处理费采用回归预测的方法，通过对相关数据的收集，建立对应的数学模型进行预测，对其他各项操作成本，采用单位费用和计划工作量进行预测，最后进行汇总，得到油气操作成本，其预测结果可作为油气操作成本计划制订的依据。该方法简单、操作性强，预测效果较好，在油田可以推广使用。     

焊接质量的在线控制与预测研究现状及发展趋势

由于影响焊接质量的因素很多，焊接产品的质量难以保证，开展焊接质量的在线控制与预测具有极其重要的意义，为促进国内焊接质量的在线控制与预测研究工作，介绍了国内外焊接质量的在线控制与预测方面的研究进展，同时分析了未来焊接质量的在线控制与预测研究的发展趋势。     

The influence of economic parameters on the optimal values of the design variables of a combined cycle plant

This paper presents the analysis of the influence of fuel price variation on the optimal values of the design variables of the steam part of a combined cycle plant. The investigated system was a power plant with a triple-pressure heat recovery steam generator and extraction-condensation steam turbine. Fourteen design variables for the steam part were identified. The variables that were optimised were the pressure levels of the working medium in the steam part of the system, and characteristic differences of temperatures in the heat recovery steam generator. Thanks to the development of an optimising programme, based on the genetic algorithms theory, it was possible to find an optimal solution. The indices of economic efficiency, in the form of the break-even price of electricity, were chosen as the objective function in the optimisations. The results of economic optimisations were compared with the results of the optimisation, where the electric efficiency was the objective function. This paper includes an analysis of the sensitivity of the economic objective function to failures in the adherence of the optimal values of decision variables. This analysis allowed the selection of variables such that a failure results in the highest increase of the break-even price of electricity.     

煤制天然气的竞争力分析

通过煤炭气化将部分煤炭转化成天然气是我国一项重要的战略选择.煤制天然气项目的经济性要考虑多方面因素.煤制天然气的热值高于国家质量标准17.8%-21%,其他指标也高于或满足国家标准.对不同工艺煤制天然气生产成本的分析表明,生产成本中原材料和燃料动力费用所占比例高达60%左右,折旧和修理费用所占比例约为22%-30%,说明煤炭价格是影响天然气生产成本的最敏感因素,投资对生产成本的影响也较大.再考虑到管道输送等因素,建议煤制天然气项目应重点布局在新疆、内蒙古东部等地区.但无论是在新疆、内蒙古或其他地区的煤制天然气项目都难以与西气东输一线和陕京线国产天然气相竞争.新疆煤制天然气的竞争力高于土库曼斯坦进口天然气.内蒙古、山东的煤制天然气项目可与西气东输二线进口天然气竞争.此外,新疆、内蒙古和山东等地区的煤制天然气可与新增进口LNG(石油价格在80美元/bbl时)相竞争.从新疆到达华南地区的煤制天然气竞争力强于进口LPG.     

考虑输电投资效率的长期节点电价模型

该文对以电力市场长期效率为优化目标的长期节点电价模型进行了研究,通过对长期最优潮流模型的分析,可以对各个时段的发电功率、用电功率和该投资周期内的电网容量实现优化,并在此基础上计算输电线路的阻塞租金和各节点的长期节点电价.研究结果表明,输电线路的最优容量取决于其阻塞租金,而以长期效率为目标的节点电价能提供正确的价格信号....     

What has driven oil prices since 2000? A structural change perspective

This paper characterizes weekly international oil price fundamentals since 2000 by analyzing the transformation of the market mechanism based on structural change perspective. Using endogenously-determined break tests that allow for changes in both level and trend, we divide the price fluctuations in the international oil market after 2000 into three stages: “Relatively calm market” period (January 07, 2000, to March 12, 2004); the “Bubble accumulation” period (March 19, 2004, to June 06, 2008,); and the “Global economic crisis” period (June 13, 2008, to September 11, 2009). The results show the existence of structural breaks refutes the utility of investigation of the full sample period as a whole. And in different structural periods the main drivers of oil price changes and their way of influence and degree are significantly distinct. Then we demonstrate the evolving process of market mechanism since 2000. Through establishing comparative models, we also quantitatively measure the roles of speculation and episodic events in oil price fluctuations.     

Oil price,biofuels and food supply

The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels.