Review and comparison between the Wells–Riley and dose-response approaches to risk assessment of infectious respiratory diseases

Abstract Infection risk assessment is very useful in understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and in predicting the risk of these diseases to the public. Quantitative infection risk assessment can provide quantitative analysis of disease transmission and the effectiveness of infection control measures. The Wells–Riley model has been extensively used for quantitative infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases in indoor premises. Some newer studies have also proposed the use of dose‐response models for such purpose. This study reviews and compares these two approaches to infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases. The Wells–Riley model allows quick assessment and does not require interspecies extrapolation of infectivity. Dose‐response models can consider other disease transmission routes in addition to airborne route and can calculate the infectious source strength of an outbreak in terms of the quantity of the pathogen rather than a hypothetical unit. Spatial distribution of airborne pathogens is one of the most important factors in infection risk assessment of respiratory disease. Respiratory deposition of aerosol induces heterogeneous infectivity of intake pathogens and randomness on the intake dose, which are not being well accounted for in current risk models. Some suggestions for further development of the risk assessment models are proposed.

Practical Implications

This review article summarizes the strengths and limitations of the Wells–Riley and the dose‐response models for risk assessment of respiratory diseases. Even with many efforts by various investigators to develop and modify the risk assessment models, some limitations still persist. This review serves as a reference for further development of infection risk assessment models of respiratory diseases. The Wells–Riley model and dose‐response model offer specific advantages. Risk assessors can select the approach that is suitable to their particular conditions to perform risk assessment.

     

温度和叶面湿润时数对烟草赤星病菌侵染的影响

在控制条件下接种烟草赤星病菌的试验结果表明 ,在品种和菌株组成一定的情况下 ,接种温度 (DT)和叶面湿润时数 (WD)是影响病菌侵染的 2个主要因素。接种温度在 12～ 37℃范围内 ,病菌可以侵染寄主 ,成功侵染的最适温度为 2 7～ 30℃。在适宜温度条件下 ,接种后保湿 2h病菌即可侵入 ,保湿时间延长 ,侵染概率增大。侵染概率与接种温度、叶面湿润时数及其互作之间具有线性关系。     

德莫林应用于白血病肛周感染患者的疗效观察

目的探讨德莫林（皮肤创面无机活性诱导敷料）治疗肛周感染的效果。方法将60例肛周感染患者随机分为2组观察组30例理疗加德莫林;对照组30例局部换药、理疗,比较两组疗效。结果观察组疗效明显优于对照组,两组比较差异有统计学意义（P〈0．01）。结论德莫林治疗肛周感染,有效提高了肛周感染的治愈率,减少患者痛苦。     

An overview of recent applications of Game Theory to bioinformatics

The goal of this work is to provide a comprehensive review of different Game Theory applications that have been recently used to predict the behavior of non-rational agents in interaction situations arising from computational biology.In the first part of the paper, we focus on evolutionary games and their application to modelling the evolution of virulence. Here, the notion of Evolutionary Stable Strategy (ESS) plays an important role in modelling mutation mechanisms, whereas selection mechanisms are explained by means of the concept of replicator dynamics.In the second part, we describe a couple of applications concerning cooperative games in coalitional form, namely microarray games and Multi-perturbation Shapley value Analysis (MSA), for the analysis of genetic data. In both of the approaches, the Shapley value is used to assess the power of genes in complex regulatory pathways.     

A model for diagnosis of pulmonary infections in solid-organ transplant recipients

Background

Opportunistic pulmonary infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality among solid organ transplant recipients. The diagnosis of these infections is challenging because of the broad spectrum of bacteria, fungi and viruses affecting these patients and the lack of specific signs and symptoms. Treatment directed at the offending organism started as soon as possible improves survival.

Objective

To develop a decision support system for the diagnosis of pulmonary infections in solid-organ transplant recipients. The model's goal is to improve the accuracy of the diagnosis and thus the appropriateness of empirical treatment.

Design

The model is built using a Bayesian network (also known as causal probabilistic network). The network is based on pathogen segments which are the main building blocks of the model. Segments share common risk factors, such as time after transplantation, latent infections of donor/recipient and organ transplanted. The segments are linked at symptoms, signs and diagnostic tests common to all pathogens. The outputs of the model are predicted probabilities of infectious pathogens. To populate the model with data we have mainly abstracted data from the literature, using a systematic approach. The structure of the model and its adaptation for decision support will be presented.

Evaluation

The first evaluation phase assessed the model's diagnosis in a series of 20 representative cases of opportunistic infections. A match between the case's diagnosis and the model's prediction was achieved in 17/20 of cases. The next evaluation phase will consist of a prospective observational study comparing the accuracy of the model's diagnosis vs. that of the physician within 24 h of episode onset, as compared with a gold-standard diagnosis ascribed to the patients at the end of the infectious episode by two independent experts. Data for this phase are currently collected prospectively.     

私人病房与21世纪的医院

本文从探讨私人病房的设计影响因素入手,结合相关实践案例分析私人病房在医院中的设置原则及成因,并针对未来医院发展提出建设多种类型病房的建议。     

井间非均质渗透率分形预测

储集层渗透率空间分布既有严重的非均质性，又有统计自相似性。在预测泌阳凹陷双河油田４３７断块Ⅱ油组１小层井间渗透率非均质性时，首先根据取心井岩心实测渗透率与测井资料间的关系，建立渗透率解释模型；用该模型解释单井测井资料，得到逐点渗透率预测值，等序处理构成非均质渗透率序列，并研究豪斯特指数；根据井斜资料将井深校正为海拔高程，建立井间预测网格；用分形克里格法预测井间每个网格结点渗透率，用变序技术处理层状非均质分布问题，用权门槛技术解决泥质夹层预测问题，得到井间预测剖面；用取心井已知渗透率对预测结果进行交叉检验，计算单层平均预测误差（通过５口井资料的交叉检验，单层预测的平均误差为３５．１％）。将此预测结果用于该断块４６２注采井组分析，总结出７种储集层过渡类型，评价井组的单层连通情况，预测油水分布动态。预测成果还可用于识别厚油层内的夹层。图２表１参５（郭海莉摘）