A Bayesian analysis of mouse infectivity data to evaluate the effectiveness of using ultraviolet light as a drinking water disinfectant

Modelling disinfectant performance using Bayesian hierarchical methods can overcome problems with traditional methods and lead to improved estimates. Animal and cell-culture assays are used to estimate the degree of inactivation of a microorganism produced by a given disinfectant dose. Assay data traditionally are analyzed with logistic model or most probable number (MPN) method. These methods are limited particularly when assays show all (or no) animals or cells to be infected-estimates are reported as greater than (or less than) a measurement limit (i.e., censored data). The proposed Bayesian approach (1) properly models the propagation of uncertainty through the data analysis/modelling process, resulting in reduced model uncertainty, and (2) uses appropriate probability distribution models for the response variables, avoiding the censored data problem and more accurately describing statistical error when estimating dose-response behavior. This paper applies the Bayesian hierarchical models to logistic and MPN data from published papers for the ultraviolet (UV) inactivation of Cryptosporidium. Results are compared to those from three alternative models. The Bayesian model estimates a significantly lower UV dose for a given level of Cryptosporidium inactivation than the alternative models, due mainly to the reduced model uncertainty.     

mini-MPN-STE-qPCR法快速定量检测食品中沙门氏菌

目的 建立一种快速、简易、可定量检测食源性沙门氏菌定量PCR(quantitative PCR, qPCR)方法。方法 依据沙门菌属invA基因序列设计染料法qPCR引物, 建立基于嵌合荧光法的沙门氏菌qPCR检测方法, 并通过短时间增菌(short time enrichment, STE)的5管微型多管发酵计数法（mini-most probable number, mini-MPN）进行定量检测, 构建mini-MPN-STE-qPCR法。使用人工污染的鸡肉混合液进行定量检测, 检测结果与传统MPN计数法和平板计数法进行比较分析。结果 建立的 qPCR法特异性良好, 方法灵敏度为50 CFU/mL, 结合48孔板min-MPN和4h 短时间增菌建立的mini-MPN-STE-qPCR法可将整个检测流程缩短至7 h。人工添加沙门氏菌的鸡肉混合液检测结果表明方法检出限为-0.347 log MPN/mL, Bland-Altman分析结果显示, 此法与传统MPN计数法相关系数R2=0.994, 与平板计数法相关系数R2=0.992。结论 该方法准确、简单易行、成本低、灵敏度高, 可用于食品中沙门菌的快速定量检测。