Hydrocarbon exploration risk evaluation through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques

The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental component of the decision process related to the exploratory phase. In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sensitivity approach. The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geometric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncertainty. The geometric uncertainty evaluation makes use of geostatistical techniques that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data. The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap. The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, together with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure probability map, the drainage area probability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap-filling scenarios.     

连续蒸煮器内洗涤结合器外扩散洗涤的应用

连续蒸煮器内洗涤结合器外扩散洗涤，具有洗涤时间长、洗涤效率高、提取黑液浓度高、浆层厚度均匀、浆层结构组织和浓度一致等特点，运行可靠，易于自动化控制，实现了洗涤用水的封闭循环。     

利津地区深层沙三、沙四段油藏测试评价

利用测试资料，将利津地区深层沙三、沙四段油藏分为5种油藏类型：①高压、低-极低渗、导数曲线后期上翘、地层存在非均质性的油藏；②高压、低渗、无污染、双孔介质的油藏；③高压、低-中渗、无-轻微污染的复合油藏；④常-高压、低渗、有污染的油藏；⑤常-高压、极低渗、无污染、干层的油藏。最后对利津地区深层沙三、沙四段各种类型油藏进行了评价，认为利津地区深层沙三、沙四段自然产能较低，一般需要进行改造措施来提高渗透性，提高产能。     

输气干线单个分输站站址最优化研究

输气干线分输站站址规划设计合理与否，直接影响到分输站至各城市门站之间输气管线总投资和未来管网系统的发展。为此,着重讨论并建立了以分输站站址、各城市门站与分输站之间管道直径、壁厚、分输站压力为设计变量，以各城市门站与分输站之间管道投资最小为目标函数的分输站站址优化数学模型。根据模型特点，采用混合离散变量复合形法与数据库技术相结合来求解分输站站址。以此站址为参考点，结合现场勘察，在参考点附近沿输气干线预选多个分输站站址，并对影响分输站建设和管理的环境因素用多目标模糊评价方法进行综合评价，以评价效果好的站址为最优分输站站址。用算例说明了分输站站址优化结果不仅与工艺参数变化有关，且与分输站所处环境因素有关。提出还应深入研究输气干线中具有多个分输站的站址优化问题。     

微波干燥原理及其应用

介绍了微波干燥的原理和主要特点及其应用的现状,并且给出了微波干燥经济核算的计算方法。     

高速供送螺杆动态性能评价体系的建构

随着设备高速化的日益发展，传统的螺杆设计方法及相应的供送特性评价体系已显落后。参照蜗型凸轮动力学性能的评价方法，建立了高速供送螺杆的动态性能评价体系，为高速化供送螺杆的设计提供了性能参照指标。     

Information-Based Evaluation Criterion for Classifier's Performance

In the past few years many systems for learning decision rules from examples were developed. As different systems allow different types of answers when classifying new instances, it is difficult to appropriately evaluate the systems' classification power in comparison with other classification systems or in comparison with human experts. Classification accuracy is usually used as a measure of classification performance. This measure is, however, known to have several defects. A fair evaluation criterion should exclude the influence of the class probabilities which may enable a completely uninformed classifier to trivially achieve high classification accuracy. In this paper a method for evaluating the information score of a classifier's answers is proposed. It excludes the influence of prior probabilities, deals with various types of imperfect or probabilistic answers and can be used also for comparing the performance in different domains.     

小功率行波管可靠性数字仿真的研究

基于对实际器件的测试数据,采用模糊数学和最可能故障法建立整个器件的可靠性模型.引入可靠性分布密度函数,将实际测试得到的离散数据拟合成随时间变化的连续函数,不仅可得到小功率行波管测试性能的评估,而且还可以对其可靠性进行预测;进一步研究,还可以给出预测的准确度概率.本文主要讨论小功率行波管可靠度评估模型的建立、数据处理与精度分析等,并对预测与准确度的概率给予简要的介绍.     

Methodologies for characterizing traffic in wide area networks: Analysis and benchmarking

Since computer networks play an important role in distributed computing environments, an application's performance depends heavily on the quality of service provided by the communication networks. To ensure a high performance, the characteristics of wide area networks, WANs, must be well understood. This paper presents methodologies to characterize WAN traffic based on real measurements from Bellcore's backbone network that connects remote sites using dedicated T1 links. This paper also suggests some workload models that can be used for wide area network sizing and performance evaluation studies. It is found that the inter-site traffic pattern depends on the time of the day and the day of the week. Furthermore, the traffic between two sites is found to be reasonably symmetric, except for those sites designated as back-up sites. The coefficient of variation is used as a measure for the traffic burstiness and it is found to be 1·5 degree during working hours. The methods presented here are easy to use and cost-effective.     

MCRC��ǻ��չ��ճ�̽

本文根据MCRC引进装置的情况,对加拿大Delta公司的MCRC硫回收工艺作了初步探索,介绍了该方法的工艺特征,并评述了引进装置的性能考核结果。文中还结合四川气田建厂的环保要求,评价了MCRC方法的使用价值及意义。