Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants.The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle–Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa.The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, tooAfter the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed – until now – by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years.     

韩国氢经济发展规划

为了应对气候变化,可再生能源在全球方兴未艾。目前,韩国正致力于发展氢能源领域。为创建氢经济发展生态系统,重点是增加氢动力汽车的生产和使用,构建制氢和储运全流程,扩大燃料电池的生产。政府的愿景计划得到了工业企业的大力支持,其中,HyNet联盟计划在2022年前兴建100座加氢站,现代汽车集团宣布“FCEV愿景2030”计划,到2030年投资7.6万亿韩元用于燃料电池系统研发及产能的扩张;POSCO集团计划到2050年建立500万t氢生产体制。如果相关计划顺利实施,预计到2040年,氢气将占到韩国国内能源消耗的5%,经济将增长43万亿韩元,同时创造42万个就业岗位,并大幅减少细颗粒物和温室气体排放。     

南海海域波浪能资源模拟评估

为了大范围评估波浪能资源,文章通过WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ模式结合高精度的CCMP风场资料对南海海域四季的波浪能资源进行定量计算和定性分析,分析结果表明:南海海域的波浪能分布表现出明显的空间和季节分布特性,大值区主要集中在中北部海域、东沙群岛和台湾岛邻近海域,而低值区主要分布在北部湾、曾母暗沙以及泰国湾周边海域;在冬季,南海海域的波浪能流密度及其稳定性方面均比其他季节有明显优势,且冬季的平均波浪能有效储量的总体水平表现为全年最高;南海北部、台湾岛东南部海域以及东沙群岛附近海域的波浪能资源丰富,是资源优势区域,适宜波浪能开发。     

Off-grid hybrid renewable energy system with hydrogen storage for South African rural community health clinic

Most inhabitants of rural communities in Africa lack access to clean and reliable electricity. This has deprived the rural dwellers access to modern healthcare delivery. In this paper, an off-grid renewable energy system consisting of solar PV and wind turbine with hydrogen storage scheme has been explored to meet the electrical energy demands of a health clinic. The health clinic proposed is a group II with 10 beds located in a typical village in South Africa. First, the wind and solar energy resources of the village were analysed. Thereafter, the microgrid architecture that would meet the energy demand of the clinic (18.67 kWh/day) was determined. Some of the key results reveal that the average annual wind speed at 60 m anemometer height and solar irradiation of the village are 7.9 m/s and 4.779 kWh/m²/day, respectively. The required architecture for the clinic composes of 40 kW solar PV system, 3 numbers of 10 kW wind turbines, 8.6 kW fuel cell, 25 kW electrolyser and 40 kg hydrogen tank capacity. The capital cost of the microgrid was found to be $177,600 with a net present cost of $206,323. The levelised cost of energy of the system was determined to be 2.34 $/kWh. The project has a breakeven grid extension distance of 8.81 km. Since this distance is less than the nearest grid extension distance of 21.35 km, it is established that the proposed renewable energy microgrid with a hydrogen storage system is a viable option for the rural community health clinic.     

四川盆地南部页岩气富集规律与规模有效开发探索

四川盆地南部地区海相页岩气资源潜力巨大,为了推进该区页岩气规模有效上产,基于地质评价新认识和工程技术新进展,分析了页岩气的富集规律和实现高产的关键因素,探讨了页岩气规模有效开发的模式,明确了下一步的发展方向。研究结果表明:(1)下志留统龙马溪组底部优质页岩是该区的最优甜点层,具有低密度、高铀钍比、高石英含量、高有机碳含量和高游离气含量的特征,其平面展布规律主要受深水陆棚沉积相的控制;(2)远离古(今)剥蚀区和大型断裂的稳定超压区受多期构造演化的控制,有机质孔发育,产出气体以滞留油二次裂解为主,是最有利的甜点区;(3)定好井、钻好井、压好井和管好井是页岩气井实现高产的4个基本条件;(4)该区内的长宁—威远、滇黔北昭通国家级页岩气示范区现有主体技术已实现3 500 m以浅优质页岩气资源的有效开发,浅层以及埋深介于3 500～4 500 m的页岩储层也展示出良好的页岩气开发潜力。结论认为,借助于技术进步,该区页岩气有望实现年产规模达400×10~8m~3的目标。     

南海海域新生界沉积盆地天然气成藏条件及资源前景

000年以来,南海油气勘探开发快速发展,特别是深水区获得了重大天然气发现,但对该区的天然气资源认识程度较低,出现了勘探实践与南海资源评价结果不符的情况。因此,需要系统开展南海海域天然气资源评价,科学地认识南海海域天然气资源潜力。在归纳南海油气勘探新进展及油气地质新认识的基础上,总结了构造型、生物礁地层型、深水沉积岩性型及基岩潜山型4类天然气成藏模式,将台西南、北部湾、珠江口、琼东南、莺歌海、中建南、双峰、万安、南薇西、北康、曾母、文莱沙巴、南薇东、礼乐及西北巴拉望等15个主要沉积盆地作为资源评价对象;选择“以多参数类比法为主、以成因法和统计法为辅”的资源评价方法,建立了万安、文莱沙巴和珠江口等3个类比刻度区,代表断陷、走滑和前陆3类不同类型的沉积盆地,通过刻度区精细解剖,系统获得了南海天然气资源面积丰度等关键参数,最终利用特尔斐法综合,预测15个主要沉积盆地的天然气地质资源量为31.85×10¹²m³,明确了南海常规天然气勘探潜力及未来勘探方向。     

莺歌海盆地东方区黄流组大型强振幅体沉积内幕及其油气意义

综合利用岩心、钻井、测井以及地震数据,系统查明了莺歌海盆地东方区黄流组一段大型强振幅体外部几何形态、内部沉积要素构成、发育期次、平面展布及演化规律,揭示了有利储集体特征与分布,探讨了其油气意义,并预测了东方区有利勘探方向。研究表明：大型强振幅体整体呈“扇形”,内部由浊积水道、水道间漫溢和天然堤3种沉积要素构成,为发育在浅海陆架背景下的大型“重力流沉积”。其垂向上可划分出3个期次,从第一期到第三期呈现出规模逐渐增大、向北西方向不断迁移、向南东方向逐步推进的演变趋势。浊积水道砂岩在东方区纵横广布、三期叠置,为该区主力储层类型。强超压环境对于改善东方区黄流组一段储集体物性具有重要促进作用。与大型强振幅沉积体相关的圈闭主要为砂岩上倾尖灭型岩性圈闭和砂岩透镜体型岩性圈闭,前者分布在底辟构造带的翼部（底辟活动区）,后者主要位于底辟构造带外围（底辟活动波及区）,勘探前景均十分广阔。     

深水盆地高温高压环境下的地层压力预测方法

目前,应用于南海琼东南盆地深水高温高压地区地层压力预测的方法主要为测井法、经验公式法、地震法等,由于其局限性及该区勘探对象的复杂性,致使应用效果不佳。为了提高该区地层压力预测的精度,在分析常规经验公式法原理和考虑区域压实背景多样性的基础上,结合已有的钻井资料,建立了不同区域、不同构造的正常压实速度趋势线,拟合速度与深度的关系,计算孔隙压力,形成了新的常规经验公式法(以下简称新方法);在Stephen公式的基础上,通过引入地层抗张强度、分段选择泊松比取值,计算了地层破裂压力。研究结果表明:(1)所建立的正常压实速度趋势线不需要对目标区内的岩性做出判断,可直接对目标区地层正常压实范围内的压实速度进行拟合;(2)当达到一定的地层深度后,纵波、横波速度比和泊松比基本上不受深度的影响,泊松比的这一特性可被用于分段计算破裂压力;(3)新方法预测的地层压力系数绝对误差小于0.07、相对误差小于5%。结论认为,基于新方法开发的压力预测平台可用于南海相关深水盆地高温高压环境下的地层压力预测,预测结果误差范围小、精度高,满足了设计要求、提高了工作效率,具有良好的应用前景。     

海水声速模型研究进展及南海声速模型展望

总结海水声速模型研究进展,将海水声速模型分为数学模型和数值模型。数学模型以经验公式、Munk模型、GDEM(Generalized Digital Environmental Model)为典型代表,数值模型以经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF)模型为主要类型,基于全球数据集得到广泛应用。数学模型具有良好的拓展性但过于理想;数值模型可达到较高的声速拟合精度,但也存在局限性,需要进一步发展。以南海声速模型为切入点,总结南海声速模型的研究需要和应用需求,认为南海海水声速模型将在高精度宏观三维声速模型、动态预报宏观声速模型的方向上不断深化应用领域,取得新的进展。     

基于北煤南运新通道的湖北能源发展研究

我国正规划建设的蒙西至华中地区铁路煤运通道,即"北煤南运"新通道将改变华中地区的能源结构和布局,对位于华中腹地的湖北省能源发展产生重要而深远的影响。分析了制约湖北省能源发展关键因素,结合新通道建设给湖北能源发展带来的机遇,提出了统筹规划、完善配套、促进综合能源科学发展的有关对策建议。