渤海湾盆地石油地质储量和产量增长趋势的预测

渤海湾盆地的石油地质储量发现过程具有明显的渐进性、阶段性和长期性，石油产量的增长也具有一定的起伏性，用一个周期的单旋回哈伯特模型难以预测其发展趋势。通过分析渤海湾盆地的勘探开发历程，结合新一轮常规油气资源评价的结果，分别采用4个和3个哈伯特旋回拟合石油地质储量发现和产量增长曲线。预测结果显示，2005-2015年渤海湾盆地处于石油地质储量发现高峰期，2015年左右其石油产量达到高峰，之后处于下降趋势。实践证明，利用多旋回哈伯特模型对具有“多峰”特征的石油地质储量和产量的未来趋势进行预测是一种有效的方法。     

我国上市公司股票评级研究——财务结构模型分析法在股票市场中的应用

目前,我国股票市场上的股票评级尚处于探索阶段,评级时多采用专家法或历史法,而对于影响股票评级的各因素的确定以及因素间的相互作用缺乏定量分析。研究将结构模型应用到我国股票市场的股票评级中,建立关于我国股票评级的财务结构模型;分析各个因素对股票评级的影响;建立股票评级经验模式值。     

Effective Location Based Services with Dynamic Data Management in Mobile Environments

With the proliferation of mobile computing technologies, location based services have been identified as one of the most promising target application. We classify mobile information service domains based on feature characteristics of the information sources and different patterns of mobile information access. By carefully examining the service requirements, we identify the dynamic data management problem that must be addressed for effective location based services in mobile environments. We then devise a general architecture and cost model for servicing both location independent and location dependent data. Based on the architecture and cost model, we propose a set of dynamic data management strategies that employs judicious caching, proactive server pushing and neighborhood replication to reduce service cost and improve response time under changing user mobility and access patterns. Detail behavior analysis helps us in precisely capturing when and how to apply these strategies. Simulation results suggest that different strategies are effective for different types of data in response to different patterns of movement and information access. Shiow-yang Wu is an associate professor of the Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering at National Dong Hwa University, Hualien, Taiwan, R.O.C. He received the BS and MS degrees in computer engineering from National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC, and the PhD degree in computer science from the University of Texas at Austin in 1984, 1986, and 1995, respectively. His research interests include data/knowledge bases, mobile computing, distributed processing, intelligence information systems, and electronic commerce. Kun-Ta Wu was born in Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C., in 1976. He received the B.S. degree in computer science from Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C., in 1999 and the M.S. degree in computer science and information engineering from National Dong Hwa University, Hualien, Taiwan, R.O.C., in 2001. Currently, he is an Assistant Researcher in the Domestic Division at Science and Technology Information Center, National Science Council, R.O.C., as a member of Information Gathering and Analysis Group of National Information and Communication Security Taskforce. His research interests include mobile computing, wireless network and information security.     

复杂土坝的渗流安全分析评价

根据福华山土坝的渗流观测资料,建立了测压管水位的回归统计模型,定量分析了各影响量(水位分量、时效分量)对测压管水位的影响效应。在此基础上,结合观测资料,采用有限元法反演了大坝各填筑区的渗透系数,并综合评价了大坝的渗流性态。     

有植被的河道水流紊动特性模型试验研究

通过物理模型试验,研究了有植被的河道水流紊动特性.试验结果表明,在复式断面河道滩地种植柔性植被后,滩地糙率增大,水流紊动更为剧烈,河道水流紊动强度峰值由原先的滩槽交界区转移到滩地区.滩地的水流紊动强度沿程递减;滩槽交界区的水流紊动强度沿程不断增大;主槽的水流紊动强度主要与床面糙率有关,滩地植被影响了滩地水流的归槽时间,使主槽水流流速沿程增大.     

Stress-strain relations in elastoplastic solids with Dugdale-type cracks

Mechanical behavior of a two-dimensional elastoplastic solid with rectilinear cracks is investigated. Plastic strip model is used to reduce plasticity problem to the equivalent linear elasticity formulation. Two realizations of the mixed mode plastic strip model are considered: in-line plastic strips as proposed by Becker and Gross [Int. J. Fract. 37 (1988) 163], and inclined plastic strips of Panasyuk and Savruk [Appl. Mech. Rev. 47 (1994) 151]. The effective mechanical response predictions are based on the procedure presented in Kachanov et al., [Appl. Mech. Rev. 47 (1994) 151]. Stress-strain relations are obtained for parallel and randomly oriented non-interacting cracks. Results are compared with known elastic solutions.     

射孔完井出砂预测新模型及其在射孔优化中的应用

分析了射孔完井的油层出砂机理，以线弹性理论为基础，考虑变温应力和流体渗流作用的拖曳力影响，建立了一种新的射孔完井出砂预测模型。应用该模型研究射孔方位、射孔参数对油井出砂的影响，结果表明，深穿透射孔弹比大孔半径射孔弹能更好地避免孔道出砂，采用定向射孔能有效地减少油井出砂问题。其结果对砂岩油藏射孔优化设计具有一定指导意义。     

灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用

油气操作成本是油气田生产消耗的主要项目，为了有效地控制油气操作成本，必须制定准确的油气操作成本计划。而油气操作成本在我国是最近几年才提出来的，数据项比较少，给油气操作成本预测带来一定的难度。为此，文章根据灰色预测的基本原理，采用灰色系统理论进行油气操作成本预测，就可以弥补对预测所需的数据少，而且也无须剔除不可比因素，只要所建模型能满足精度要求，预测结果就可以信赖。     

油气操作成本预测方法研究

油气操作成本在油气生产中占有较大的比重，油气操作成本的高低直接影响油田开发的经济效益。为了有效地控制油田油气操作成本，根据影响油气操作的因素，将油气操作成本按其影响因素进行分类，对基本运行费和油气处理费采用回归预测的方法，通过对相关数据的收集，建立对应的数学模型进行预测，对其他各项操作成本，采用单位费用和计划工作量进行预测，最后进行汇总，得到油气操作成本，其预测结果可作为油气操作成本计划制订的依据。该方法简单、操作性强，预测效果较好，在油田可以推广使用。     

石化企业线性规划模型的自动生成

根据石化企业生产过程的实际情况，考虑原料供应量、装置加工能力、物料平衡和价格等情况．建芷反映企业生产情况的线性规划数学模型。分别阐述了模型的决策变量、目标函数和约束方程的自动生成的方法，并给出了模型文件的存储结构。