Network traffic prediction based on a new time series model

Fast and accurate methods for predicting traffic properties and trend are essential for dynamic network resource management and congestion control. With the aim of performing online and feasible prediction of network traffic, this paper proposes a novel time series model, named adaptive autoregressive (AAR). This model is built upon an adaptive memory‐shortening technique and an adaptive‐order selection method originally developed by this study. Compared to the conventional one‐step ahead prediction using traditional Box–Jenkins time series models (e.g. AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and ARFIMA), performance results obtained from actual Internet traffic traces have demonstrated that the proposed AAR model is able to support online prediction of dynamic network traffic with reasonable accuracy and relatively low computation complexity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acidogenic fermentation of blended food‐waste in combination with primary sludge for the production of volatile fatty acids

The performance of a laboratory‐scale anaerobic acidogenic fermenter fed with a mixture of blended kitchen food‐waste and primary sludge from a sewage treatment plant was investigated for the production of volatile fatty acids (VFA). The operating variables for acidogenic fermentation were kitchen food‐waste content (10 and 25 wt %), hydraulic retention time (HRT: 1, 3 and 5 days), temperature (ambient: 18 ± 2 °C, and mesophilic: 35 ± 2 °C) and pH (varied from 5.2 to 6.7). The experimental results indicated that effluent VFA concentrations and VFA production rates were higher at ambient temperature than at mesophilic conditions. The net amount of VFA with 10 wt % food‐waste increased up to 920 mg dm^?3 with an increase of HRT, but contrasting results (a decrease of 2610 mg dm^?3) were found due to the conversion of VFA into biogas in the case of 25 wt % food‐waste, which increased significantly at HRT of 3–5 days. In terms of biogas composition (CO₂ and CH₄), the organic matter was converted into CO₂ through the oxidative pathway by facultative species at low temperature while mesophilic temperature and optimum pH (6.3–7.8) played a pivotal role in increasing rate of conversion of VFA into biogas by methanogenesis. Rates of VFA production and their conversion are dependent on the food‐waste content in the mixture. Yet, the higher concentration of food‐waste (25% compared with 10%) did not produce VFA proportionally due to the increased rate of conversion of VFA into gaseous products. The maximum VFA production rate (0.318 g VFA_produced g^?1 VS_fed day^?1) was achieved in the 10 wt % food‐waste at ambient temperature and at a 5‐day HRT. Copyright © 2005 Society of Chemical Industry     

PDC钻头对录井的影响及应对措施

钻井技术水平的不断提高和PDC钻头的广泛使用给现场录井作业带来了新问题。与传统的三牙轮钻头相比,PDC钻头突出的特点是产生的岩屑稀少、细小甚至失真,给地质录井的岩屑采集、鉴定、识别以及油气层级别的判定、解释、评价带来了一系列困难。为此,结合PDC钻头在新疆塔河、松辽盆地、鄂尔多斯等地油田的使用及录井经验,从PDC钻头条件下岩屑特征和岩性特征的分析入手,阐述使用PDC钻头对气测录井、荧光录井的影响,总结了在PDC钻头条件下搞好录井作业的应对措施,并列举了提高录井技术水平的可行途径。     

Discrete-time spare ordering policy with randomized lead times and discounting

The paper considers a generalized discrete‐time order‐replacement model for a single unit system, which is subject to random failure when in operation. Two types of discrete randomized lead times are considered for a spare unit; one is for regular (preventive) order and another is for expedited (emergency) order. The model is formulated based on the discounted cost criterion. The underlying two‐dimensional optimization problem is reduced to a simple one‐dimensional one and then the optimal ordering policy for the spare unit is characterized under two extreme conditions: (i) unlimited inventory time and (ii) zero inventory time for the spare unit. A numerical example is used to determine the optimal spare‐ordering policy numerically and to examine the sensitivity of the model parameters.     

Fast dynamic casting

We describe a scheme for implementing dynamic casts suitable for systems where the performance and predictability of performance is essential. A dynamic cast from a base class to a derived class in an object‐oriented language can be performed quickly by having the linker assign an integer type ID to each class. A simple integer arithmetic operation verifies whether the cast is legal at run time. The type ID scheme presented uses the modulo function to check that one class derives from another. A 64‐bit type ID is sufficient to handle class hierarchies of large size at least nine levels of derivation deep. We also discuss the pointer adjustments required for a C++ dynamic_cast. All examples will be drawn from the C++ language. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

飞行时间二次离子质谱--强有力的表面、界面和薄膜分析手段

二次离子质谱（Secondary ion mass spectrometry，简称SIMS）是一种对表面灵敏的质谱技术，建立在表面各种类型带正、负电荷原子或分子发射的基础上。用飞行时间（Time of flight，简称TOF）仪器对这些二次离子进行质量分析，能确保并行质量登录、高质量范围、高流通率下的高分辨和精确质量测定这些优异性能。配合细聚焦扫描一次离子束，可在优于1nm的高深度分辨和优于50nm的横向分辨本领下，实现对表面优于单层ppm(百万分之一）量级的极高检测灵敏度。当今TOF－SIMS已发展为一种成熟且完善的表面分析技术。极高的灵敏度，再加上即使对大分子及不易挥发性分子都独具的敏感性，使它成为很多高技术领域不可缺少的分析手段，这些领域包括微电子学、化学和材料科学以至纳米技术和生命科学等。本文简述了TOF－SIMS的原理、仪器及其多方面的应用和展望。     

信号时域积分性质的一个推广应用

对信号进行运算（卷积运算，傅氏变换，拉纸变换）时，应用时域积分性质，得出由函数导数的运算式求取原函数的相应运算结果的一般性计算公式，使时域积分性质的应用得到推广。     

Optimal size,hydraulic retention time and volatile solids loading rate of biogas unit using water hyacinth

With a view to evaluate the effects of hydraulic retention time and volatile solids loading rate on methane production using water hyacinth, experiments were conducted in a 160 dm³ capacity, well-mixed continuous digestion unit at ambient temperature. The optimal design of biogas plant using water hyacinth was elucidated, to provide a unit giving a maximum methane yield of 0.16 nm³ kg^?1 volatile solids added, which was 60% greater than the conventional plant using cowdung. The calculations of optimal design factors were based on reactor size, hydraulic retention time and volatile solids loading rate; considerations were made of capital cost, running costs and operational revenue.     

Minimum variance control and performance assessment of time-variant processes

This paper is concerned with (1) an explicit solution of a minimum variance control law for linear time-variant (LTV) processes in the transfer function form, and (2) performance assessment of LTV processes using minimum variance control as the benchmark. It is shown that there exists a time-variant, absolute lower bound of process variance that is achievable under LTV minimum variance control and can be estimated from routine operating data. This lower bound can subsequently be used to assess the benefit of implementing LTV control such as adaptive control. The proposed methods are illustrated through simulated examples and an industrial case study.