Improving Water Supply Outlook in Korea with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to propose an alternative forecasting approach for improving the current water supply outlook in Korea. Using a rainfall-runoff model, the existing technique for the water supply outlook in Korea produces monthly low, average, and high runoff forecasts. The proposed technique is called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP), and is currently implemented by the National Weather Service in the U.S.A. ESP appears particularly valid in Korea where the historical rainfall record is much more comprehensive than the historical streamflow record. This study applies ESP to runoff forecasting for a river basin in Korea to examine its applicability. An ensemble of one-month ahead runoff forecasts at the Gongju gauging station in the Keum River basin, Korea, was generated for each month. The resulting ESP forecasts were compared with the corresponding observed runoff data as well as the existing forecasts. Although this study is limited to one case study, the following conclusions can be made: (1) the ESP technique dominates the existing forecasting techniques in terms of both systematic and random errors; and (2) ESP is more accurate when high flows occur.     

Institutional factors affecting fish passage in the Columbia River Treaty renegotiation

ABSTRACT

The United States and Canada have begun renegotiating the Columbia River Treaty, which is an international model for transboundary water governance. This paper identifies six institutional factors that will affect negotiations pertaining to fish passage during the renegotiation of the treaty: geographical advantage, issue linkage, a basin commission, the duration of agreements, negotiating autonomy and side payments. These factors and the methods used to determine them can be applied to other transboundary river basins where basin states have a history of transboundary resource governance. This analysis also serves as a policy-relevant resource for Columbia River Treaty negotiators and stakeholders.     

Determinants of temperature in small coastal embayments of Lake Ontario

Along 25 km of the Lake Ontario shoreline near Toronto, Ontario, small coastal embayments (0.4–32 ha) have been constructed or modified by lake-infilling to restore warmwater fish habitat. The variation in thermal habitat quality for warmwater fishes among these embayments is very high; temperatures range from those found within a small pond to those of much cooler Lake Ontario. Since meteorological conditions and surface heat fluxes are almost identical, the temperature variation among embayments must be caused by differences in bathymetry or exchange with Lake Ontario. However, a previous study on these embayments found paradoxically that temperatures were not strongly associated with channel size or embayment bathymetry. This paper resolves the paradox by showing that flushing times for almost all of the constructed embayments were less than 1 day, and often less than 12 h. With so little time to warm within the embayments, water temperatures of almost all embayments remained very close to the temperatures of the adjacent lake waters. The coldest embayments connected directly to open Lake Ontario and warmer embayments connected to Lake Ontario through other embayments or protected harbors, where the inflowing water from Lake Ontario had already substantially warmed. To allow embayments along the exposed shoreline of Toronto to reach acceptable temperatures for warmwater fish, we use heat budgets to calculate that average summer flushing times must be increased from their current length of 1.5 to 5.5 h to approximately 30 h. Such changes could be achieved through large reductions in the channel cross section.     

Development of a fish‐based index of biotic integrity (FIBI) for monitoring riverine ecosystems in the Lake Victoria drainage Basin,Kenya

The long term monitoring of aquatic ecosystems based on chemical analysis is expensive resulting in a lack of time series data for management purposes thus necessitating the need for new cost effective methodologies. This study developed a fish‐based index of biotic integrity (FIBI) for monitoring environmental conditions in riverine ecosystems within the Lake Victoria Basin, Kenya. The fish fauna in the basin is poorly studied, less diverse and ecologically specialized than the temperate fauna that provided the origins of the Index of Biotic Integrity. Fish samples were collected by electrofishing from 24 sites during baseflow periods in February, March and July 2004. Validation data were collected from 7 sites with varying levels of degradation. Fish samples were identified, counted and grouped into different trophic groups, relative tolerance to pollution, habitat guild and whether exotic or native to riverine environment. Thirty‐three candidate metrics were evaluated for responsiveness to habitat quality and twelve were selected for inclusion in the final index. The index classified 6 of the 7 validation sites according to their levels of degradation. As a bioassessment tool, the index was useful in laying the basis for long‐term monitoring of rivers in the Lake Victoria drainage basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

BENCHMARKING RIVER HABITAT IMPROVEMENT

River ecosystems have witnessed a long history of human pressure, particularly the disruption of freshwater fish populations. The awareness of this situation has led to many habitat improvement projects, with a variable degree of success. In natural situations, fish populations co‐inhabit throughout the hydrological cycle with different degrees of adequacy, and the sequence of favourable and unfavourable conditions dictates abiotic constraints and biotic interactions that shape the final biological assemblages. We postulate that a part of unsuccessful restoration results is related to insufficient closeness to the natural habitat conditions of the river type that is to be restored, including the naturally adverse periods. We used the river2d model to predict habitat availability as weighted usable area (WUA) at a degraded site that is to be restored, for two native Mediterranean species and their life stages—the Southwestern nase Iberochondrostoma almacai and the Arade chub Squalius aradensis. We then analysed the yearly evolution of the natural WUA at a nearby reference site. Overall, the reference site exhibited the longest periods during which the WUA was continuously lower than the chosen WUA thresholds for each of the four bioperiods. Considerable divergences from natural habitat availability values can be seen for the spawning, rearing and growth bioperiods. Restoration outcomes can result in appreciable deviations—favourable or unfavourable to fish populations—from the WUA occurring under natural conditions over the course of the year. Restoration should therefore take account of local hydraulic and habitat patterns that govern population dynamics and result in the final fish assemblage. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

环境友好的近自然型鱼道

鱼道是帮助鱼类顺利通过闸坝等障碍物的专用设施,在维系河流连续性与生物种群交流方面具有不可替代的作用。近自然型鱼道是目前国际上十分流行的鱼道布置形式,其典型特点是利用漂石与天然河道床沙质构建尽可能接近于天然河流的水流流态。与传统的工程鱼道相比,近自然型鱼道由于构建了鱼类熟悉的水流流态,因而往往具有更高的过鱼效率。本文全面介绍了近自然型鱼道的设计理念、类型、构造布置特点、设计原则、以及水力计算方法,并对我国鱼道技术的进一步发展提出了若干建议。     

INFLUENCE OF STRUCTURE ON HYDRAULIC CHARACTERISTICS OF T SHAPE FISHWAY

While dams cut off the migratory route of fish, and affect their growth and breeding, fishways are built to restore the connectivity of rivers and facilitate the life cycle of these migratory fish. This paper proposes a new kind of fishway called the "T shape fishway", and studies it by using both numerical simulations and physical experimental methods with the aim to design a fishway in China for migratory fish with swimming and jumping capability much poorer, such as schizothorax davidi and schizothorax prenanti, as compared with migratory fish in other places of the world, like trout and salmon. It is indicated that the range of velocity in each regular pool of the T shape fishway is from 0.42 m/s to 1.22 m/s when the flow discharge Q is 350 L/s, and there are no large vortex zones found there. This study shows that the T shape fishway can meet the requirements of these migratory fish quite well in terms of velocity and flow patterns in China.     

基于嵌入式Linux自主鱼的设计及应用

该文以自然界中的盒子鱼为原型,设计了一款基于自主视觉的机器鱼,通过图像传感器采集水下图像信息并进行处理和识别,并根据识别结果做出决策控制自身运动。系统以S3C2440为核心,在嵌入式Linux环境下通过传感器采集各种有效信息,并控制舵机实现自身上升、下潜和转弯等三维运动。本文设计了一种针对自主鱼的水球比赛实验,实验结果显示,该系统具有较高的实时性和很好的灵活性。     

仿生机器鱼运动学参数优化选择的试验方法研究

建立了仿生机器鱼在一维稳态游动时的运动学数学模型；运用遗传算法对该模型中的运动学参数如何进行优化选择和组合进行了试验研究，并提出了试验的模型和方法．该模型对于开展包括鱼雷在内的无人水下航行体的推进技术研究有较大的参考意义．