An inferential confidence interval method of establishing statistical equivalence that corrects Tryon's (2001) reduction factor.

Evidence of group matching frequently takes the form of a nonsignificant test of statistical difference. Theoretical hypotheses of no difference are also tested in this way. These practices are flawed in that null hypothesis statistical testing provides evidence against the null hypothesis and failing to reject H? is not evidence supportive of it. Tests of statistical equivalence are needed. This article corrects the inferential confidence interval (ICI) reduction factor introduced by W. W. Tryon (2001) and uses it to extend his discussion of statistical equivalence. This method is shown to be algebraically equivalent with D. J. Schuirmann's (1987) use of 2 one-sided t tests, a highly regarded and accepted method of testing for statistical equivalence. The ICI method provides an intuitive graphic method for inferring statistical difference as well as equivalence. Trivial difference occurs when a test of difference and a test of equivalence are both passed. Statistical indeterminacy results when both tests are failed. Hybrid confidence intervals are introduced that impose ICI limits on standard confidence intervals. These intervals are recommended as replacements for error bars because they facilitate inferences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

一种优化的分布式系统的失效恢复策略

本文对确定性进程组的分布式系统的失效恢复策略做了深入的研究,独到地提出了应用数据流分析来静态地计算进程的最小备查点数据集的方法。     

Assessing the precision of model predictions and other functions of model parameters

Models fitted to data are used extensively in chemical engineering for a variety of purposes, including simulation, design and control. In any of these contexts it is important to assess the uncertainties in the estimated parameters and in any functions of these parameters, including predictions from the fitted model. Profiling is a likelihood ratio approach to estimating uncertainties in parameters and functions of parameters. A comparison is made between the optimization and reparameterization approaches to determining likelihood intervals for functions of parameters. The merits and limitations of generalized profiling are discussed in relation to the linearization approach commonly used in engineering. The benefits of generalized profiling are illustrated with two examples. A geometric interpretation of profiling is used to elucidate its value, and cases are identified for which the numerical algorithm fails. An alternative approach is suggested for these cases.     

Investigating the effect of modeling single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crashes separately on confidence intervals of Poisson-gamma models

Crash prediction models still constitute one of the primary tools for estimating traffic safety. These statistical models play a vital role in various types of safety studies. With a few exceptions, they have often been employed to estimate the number of crashes per unit of time for an entire highway segment or intersection, without distinguishing the influence different sub-groups have on crash risk. The two most important sub-groups that have been identified in the literature are single- and multi-vehicle crashes. Recently, some researchers have noted that developing two distinct models for these two categories of crashes provides better predicting performance than developing models combining both crash categories together. Thus, there is a need to determine whether a significant difference exists for the computation of confidence intervals when a single model is applied rather than two distinct models for single- and multi-vehicle crashes. Building confidence intervals have many important applications in highway safety.This paper investigates the effect of modeling single- and multi-vehicle (head-on and rear-end only) crashes separately versus modeling them together on the prediction of confidence intervals of Poisson-gamma models. Confidence intervals were calculated for total (all severities) crash models and fatal and severe injury crash models. The data used for the comparison analysis were collected on Texas multilane undivided highways for the years 1997-2001. This study shows that modeling single- and multi-vehicle crashes separately predicts larger confidence intervals than modeling them together as a single model. This difference is much larger for fatal and injury crash models than for models for all severity levels. Furthermore, it is found that the single- and multi-vehicle crashes are not independent. Thus, a joint (bivariate) model which accounts for correlation between single- and multi-vehicle crashes is developed and it predicts wider confidence intervals than a univariate model for all severities. Finally, the simulation results show that separate models predict values that are closer to the true confidence intervals, and thus this research supports previous studies that recommended modeling single- and multi-vehicle crashes separately for analyzing highway segments.     

基于单段波形叠加的爆破振动信号时频分析

基于实测的单段爆破振动信号,利用Matlab7.0编制程序在0~120 ms内每隔单位毫秒进行两段波形叠加,研究不同微差间隔下的叠加信号振速峰值和主频的特征;并根据RSPWVD可以看作信号能量在时域和频域分布的明确的物理意义,从能量的角度探讨不同微差间隔下叠加信号的能量分布规律。结果表明：叠加信号降振率的最大值并非出现在单段爆破振动信号1/2周期的微差间隔处;叠加信号的主频不是连续变化的,具有一定的阶跃性,其持续时间随间隔时间的延长而增加;叠加信号的能量随着微差间隔延长具有明显的规律性,可尝试从能量的角度并考虑建(构)筑物对不同频率的选择放大作用对干扰降振进行研究。     

模糊神经网络在机载相机稳像中的应用

针对解决微型飞行器空中拍摄的图像抖动问题,采用自组织递归区间二型模糊神经网络的函数逼近及泛化能力对微型飞行器上的相机振动规律进行模拟,预测机载相机的振动矢量.该自组织递归区间二型模糊神经网络的初始规则数为零,所有规则都是通过结构和参数同时在线学习来产生,网络结构学习采用的是在线区间二型模糊群集,提高自组织递归区间二型模糊神经网络的稳定性及计算精度.仿真结果表明：将自组织递归区间二型模糊神经网络与双BP神经网络进行对比,利用自组织递归区间二型模糊神经网络对微型飞行器相机振动矢量进行预测的精度高.     

Development of Randomized Load Sequences with Transition Probabilities Based on a Markov Process

To ascertain the service lie of fatigue sensitive components and structures, variable load-amplitude programmed fatigue tests must be performed. The sequences of applied load amplitudes in such programs, based on frequency distributions, since actual load-time series are seldom available, are arbitrarily chosen. The often utilized sequences—up, down, up-and-down, and completely randomized steps are unrealistic.

A mathematical model, based on a Markov process and utilizing transition probabilities, is proposed for the derivation of a randomized time series in which abrupt load changes have been eliminated.

Sequences obtained from exponential and extremal load distributions are presented.     

双管火炮异步发射时膛口流场分析

采用计算流体力学方法结合动网格技术建立了双管火炮异步发射时膛口流场的二维数值模拟模型,正确描述了双管不同步发射时炮口流场的激波系结构的形成﹑发展与相互干扰的过程。模拟结果得出双管不同步发射时对弹丸飞出膛口后的飞行姿态影响较大,从而弹丸偏移速度会影响双管火炮的射击精度。     

铋磷钼蓝光度法测定铁矿石中磷含量的不确定度评定

采用铋磷钼蓝光度法对铁矿石中磷进行测定,应用统计学理论对其分析结果不确定度的产生原因进行分析,建立测量过程分量的数学模型,分析测量过程不确定度来源及各不确定度分量对总不确定度的影响,确定测定结果的置信区间。给出铁矿石中磷的含量及其置信区间为0.0283%±0.0032%。     

Variations in the leaf standard,chemical composition and quality of black tea (Camellia sinensis) due to plucking intervals

Green leaf standard, chemical composition and quality of black tea (Camellia sinensis (L) O Kuntze) change with plucking intervals. Long plucking intervals lead to poor leaf standard with a lot of mature leaves and lower theaflavins, the sum of volatile flavour compounds imparting a sweet flowery aroma (group II volatile flavour compounds), caffeine contents and tasters' evaluations of black tea. The sum of volatile flavour compounds imparting inferior, grassy, green flavour (group I volatile flavour compounds) to tea, however, increases with long plucking intervals.